I know exactly what I am doing here !
It has to hit 12350 to make , probability is low .
Start from this. You are instantly -4.2 points and need it to move 40+ points before you can make anything. So you now need to get a 60+ move just to get 20 points, when you have already made a 4.2 loss to start out.
Howabout you just spend the 4.2 you guaranteed to lose at the outset and just buy a 12360 call? Surely even you can start to work this out?