Noisy, if you find such a method, let us know!
I am trying to get there myself, although am still learning day-trading having more experience with longer-term systems which I like to develop but don't have sufficient capital to trade.
That said, I am fairly convinced that the following strategic approach is valuable, namely:
1. Determine decent setups that have at least 50-50 probability of success.
2. That these setups have better than 1-1 risk-reward, i.e. you risk 1 pt to make 2 pts.
3. As soon as you have net 1 pt profit for the day you stop trading. Why? Because you risk going back to break-even or losing on the day. Trade until you have the 1 pt.
4. Be patient and apply money management. At 1 ES pt per day x 20 days = $2,000 a month = 1 more contract can be traded, then it compounds from there.
What I have been working on recently is the following: The first hour of the day is often the hardest to read because the market is feeling itself out. That said, it is almost certain for example that the first 3 - minute bar of the day will be exceeded at least in one direction and most likely both. I put together an indicator that plots the percentage of times the first bar is the high or low of the day and it comes to about 20% (10% for each direction). That means that 80% of the time it is not the high or low of the day. This doesn't predict which direction or anything but the simple fact is that the chances of the market definitely making a move of more than a few points in the first hour is very high as the market feels out what it is doing. So for example I have noticed that if the market yesterday was in a strong downtrend and gaps up on the open, there is a high probability that even if the previous Day Low is not tested, at least it will pull back a little during the first hour before reversing and becoming an uptrend.
Secondly, there are certain Times of Day when things tend to happen, though not always of course.
First, there is a Morning Contra move, often around 10.00 EST up to around 10.30. So if there has been a decent upswing from the open to around 10.00, then (after a report if you don't like gambling during reports), there is a high probability that the market will do at least a .38 retracement on the current swing, and often a full .618 retracement before resuming the early trend. Of course, it could reverse the entire early morning trend and make a lower low in which case the chances are that, after a pullback, it will go down either to test that new low or make a new lower low.
1.30 EST is often when a Day Contra move starts. Which means that around 12.30 - 1.15 there is a PreContra move, i.e. if the market is off its highs/lows, leading into the Contra Time is goes back up/down to the Day High or Low from which a reversal happens. So if the market has had a clear trend direction on the day and has pulled back from its highs in an uptrend and its around 12.30-1.00 and it's about .38 or .50 from that Day High, there is a high probability that before any further selloff happens the market will go back up to test or exceed that Day High.
On a day whose trend is so strong that there is not even a .38 retracement before around 2.00, then a Late Contra at 2.30 EST might happen, and this could be a big one since there will be quite a few points between the Day High and even a Day .38 retracement. Countertrend trades are harder to time of course because you never know when the turn might happen, but I have been experimenting with using Tick Bars (360 or so on the ES) and colouring the Paintbars according to up-down volume. Often when the market is somewhat oversold you begin to see selling pressure coming in even as the price rises. But once there has been a short-term pullback and then a rally which retests or doesn't even retest and then it pulls back again making a lower high, the negative volume in the high levels of the second rally up that fails to take out the high make for a good entry point with low risk.
Lastly, around 3.30 EST there is an 'End of Day' moved. This one doesn't always happen (none of them do of course), but if the day has been pretty consistently trending in one direction, say down, and is near the lows of the day or a recent swing low not far from the lows, there is a high probability that around 3.30 after a retest fail or something that the market will reverse, as floor traders clean out many of the positions that have been riding the market down all day. If this move happens, it happens fast. Look at some charts and you can see how they work.
Fundamentally, these time of days are based on simple logic, i.e:
At first the market is feeling out its momentum/direction for the day, either up or down, and/or it just can't get anything going one way or another, i.e. is in a trading range.
After the first move, there is a little pullback or a complete reversal that develops into the trend for a while.
If there has been a trend, then around 1.30-ish there is a correction.
After the correction (not commented on above), there is a resumption towards the trend again.
As we get into the day's end and if there has been a clear move up or down, there is a correction around 3.30 into the close of the cash market at 4.00.
The above TOD's don't have much to do with making one point a day except that if you don't manage to make your point in the first half hour or so, you can wait for those sort of developments, especially round Fibonacci and other key SR levels to go in and get a quick point or two.
Check out the charts and see how many times there are day corrections around the 1.30 EST time period or if not 2.30 EST. You will see that they happen quite often.
Again, though, if you come up with a pretty good setup for 1 pt a day, I would love to know. Still working on it myself. Getting close, but not quite there yet. Problem is: if your goal is only one point and if you have a 2 pt stop (which is not that large in the ES market), if you are stopped out then you have to win 3 in a row to get your 1 pt. So the key to this sort of approach, I think, is to have 65% plus probability and if possible have only 1 pt stops OR LESS for 1-1.5 profit targets and also be able/willing to move the stops down quickly to breakeven so that even if some get taken out at breakeven, at least you don't have losses to make up after.
I have been starting out on the NQ which is not as liquid and orderly as the ES. But with the ES, if you get even one tick profit, that is $7.50 net of commissions. Do that 4 times and you have your 1 point a day. With the NQ you have to have a 3 tick move to get a 2 tick profit = $5.00 net of commissions so it is a little harder. Anyway.