Dow - Which Way?

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Bid A-Tool

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:rolleyes: Over the next year I am going to try and predict each and every DOW turning point (FOR SWING TRADERS). This will be based on only two technical indicators I am using (slightly modified) for my own use. It's actually the combination of these two indicators that gives the accuracy. The predictions will not include any News Stories, Oil prices or any other factors. This is purely technical analysis.

There will be a "Stop Loss" order of around 75 points on entry. No trade will be entered until about 9:10pm after the close of trading.

Please DO NOT use real money in any of these trade. If you do so it will be at your own risk. (This system is being tested) If you want to play along then please use the CFD simulator (see at the bottom). Unfortunately you are unable to use "Stop Loss" orders for a trade on the simulator.

NO responsibility will be accepted if you use real money.

What do you think the DOW will do you traders (SWING TRADING)?

The predictions will appear below in RED when they are posted.


DATE: 17 April 2006 9:00pm

At the close of trading today, the indicators have confirmed a reversal (RISE - GO LONG) is on it's way. (Dow) an imminent rise.

How long it's duration or strength or how many points it will rise, I am unable to say.


Bid A-Tool

CLOSE above Long position. DOW presently at 11,384. 311 point profit.


DATE: 24th April 2006 9:03pm

At the close of trading today, the indicators have confirmed a reversal (FALL - GO SHORT) is on it's way.

How long it's duration or strength or how many points it will fall, I am unable to say.

Trade entered (Sell order) DOW: 11,340
Stop loss entered just above the Last High (Logical): Maximum position loss in this trade 80 points or less. Stop shall be moved closer to entry point if the trade moves in our favour.

UPDATE: 25th April 2005. 7:47pm I have now moved my "Stop Loss" to 11,340 (Entry point) for the last trade. This trade can no longer be called a Loss trade if it was to hit that level. This trade CANCELLED itself because the DOW moved against us the next day. NO MONEY LOST IN THIS TRADE.

Bid A-Tool


NEW SHORT POSITION: LAST TRADE NO LOSS

DATE: 26th April 2006 7:04pm

As of the date and time above, the indicators have confirmed a reversal (FALL - GO SHORT) is on it's way.

How long it's duration or strength or how many points it will fall, I am unable to say.

Trade entered (Sell order) DOW: 11,366
Stop loss entered just above the Last High (Logical) 11,420: Maximum position loss in this trade 54 points or less.



O.K. Traders. Do you like a challenge? If so, go to this website http://www.iii.co.uk/cfd/?type=simulator

Then go to "Launch" button. A Window will "pop" up. Click Apply to open a CFD Trading account. You will be given a simulated £10,000 (I do NOT want anyone to use real money from these Buy & Sell signals I am giving or the strategy I employ alongside them). This system has been back tested over a year.

The trading plan and method is just before END of DAY trading on the DOW. This is not a Day trading system but a system that lets you live your life and not be sat a computer screen all day watching the DOW going up and down. Each trade could last up to 14 days before closing all positions for hopefully a profit. Some can last longer than this.

This system will teach you discipline and unemotional trading. If after 12 months the simulated £10,000 is below £10,000 then you can say I have failed. For this system to work you must follow ever trade exactly when prompted.

PLAN THE TRADE. TRADE THE PLAN.
 
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I don't even bother to think :) Just let the market guide me on the dance floor :)
 
hungvir said:
I don't even bother to think :) Just let the market guide me on the dance floor :)

So does that mean you don't know and trade it on blind chance then? What if you were able to have a good idea at what point the DOW was going to change direction for the week ahead?

Bid A-Tool
 
hungvir said:
Again, I don't have an opinion. I just trade the chart set-ups knowing that I can be wrong 50 per cent of the time and still make money.

BTW, you may know that there exists another thread on the DOW here http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=247925#post247925 -

When you say "I just trade the chart set-ups". What is that exactly?
I know there is a DOW link but my link is going to be looking at the DOW from a purely technical view point based on just two indicators (slightly modified). Just waiting for the indicator to confirm to go Long on the DOW. Carn't call it yet until the next few days. One good thing, these indicators are far better than 50% accurate.

Bid A-Tool
 
Hi Bid A-Tool
Looking forward to your posts on the Dow. could we have a rough idea on the frequency of your expected trades.
Would an idea of the indicators that you are using for these trades be forthcoming at this time.

Anyways good luck with them :)

Don

:)
 
don_h said:
Hi Bid A-Tool
Looking forward to your posts on the Dow. could we have a rough idea on the frequency of your expected trades.
Would an idea of the indicators that you are using for these trades be forthcoming at this time.

Anyways good luck with them :)

Don

:)

I will be posting every day if I can or at least when I think the DOW is going to turn. I will be "Sticking my neck out". I obviously will not be right all of the time and I can only inform of the possible turns so the DOW can be traded. What I am unable to do is predict the duration of each turn but if I can predict the tops & bottoms with some accuracy, then the profit should be in between.

The indicators are secret at the moment until I have fully tested them. They are readily available and cost me only £20 a month. Let's just say the combination of both indicators give a good idea of the emotional state and mind of the Market. The indicators are for the short term traders. They can also be used effectively in day trading the DOW. Don't have time though to be watching all day.

If I think the DOW is going to turn I will say so.

Bid A-Tool
 
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don_h said:
Hi Bid A-Tool

Would an idea of the indicators that you are using for these trades be forthcoming at this time.

Anyways good luck with them :)

Don

:)

Hammers I suspect...
 
rols said:
Hammers I suspect...
Hi rols excuse my ignorance, what are hammers I suspect it has something to do with those candlestick things yuk! prefer OHLC price bars myself :LOL:
You will no doubt be able to guess the strategy before me if that whats being used :cheesy:

cheers

Don

:)
 
don_h said:
Hi rols excuse my ignorance, what are hammers I suspect it has something to do with those candlestick things yuk! prefer OHLC price bars myself :LOL:
You will no doubt be able to guess the strategy before me if that whats being used :cheesy:

cheers

Don

:)

Don. Forgive me, I was being facetious. It was the talk of "secret indicators"

Bid A-Tool = Hammers. Geddit!
 
rols said:
Don. Forgive me, I was being facetious. It was the talk of "secret indicators"

Bid A-Tool = Hammers. Geddit!

No, nothing to do with "Candlesticks", Hammers or anything else Chinese. It is the combination of these two indicators I have found that makes it a killer combination. We will see what happens in time. Forget your hundreds of £££ worth of complicated software packages. I have seen them all. My trading method is simplicity itself. No fancy stuff. I am holding it "secret" at the moment for more testing. Only time will tell. Good results so far. In my opinion you are better "tossing" a coin than asking the professionals.

There is one thing that is predictable about the DOW.......It either goes Up or Down. The key is when?

Bid A-Tool
 
rols said:
Don. Forgive me, I was being facetious. It was the talk of "secret indicators"

Bid A-Tool = Hammers. Geddit!

mmm "Secret Indicators" obviously, I can't wait ! :LOL:
 
While we wait for my indicators to "indicate" a turning point on the DOW........I thought you all might find this information useful:

The 11 Most Common Mistakes of a Trader are........

1. Not Having a Trade Plan.
2. Not Having Money Management
3. Not Using Protective Stop Loss Orders
4. Taking Small Profits and Letting Your Losses Run
5. Overstaying Your Position
6. Averaging a Loss
7. Increasing Your Commitment With Success
8. Overtrading Your Account
9. Failure to Remove Profits From Your Account
10. Changing the Trade Plan Mid-Trade...
11. Not Having Patience
 
Bid A-Tool said:
While we wait for my indicators to "indicate" a turning point on the DOW........I thought you all might find this information useful:

The 11 Most Common Mistakes of a Trader are........

1. Not Having a Trade Plan.
2. Not Having Money Management
3. Not Using Protective Stop Loss Orders
4. Taking Small Profits and Letting Your Losses Run
5. Overstaying Your Position
6. Averaging a Loss
7. Increasing Your Commitment With Success
8. Overtrading Your Account
9. Failure to Remove Profits From Your Account
10. Changing the Trade Plan Mid-Trade...
11. Not Having Patience

and may I add

12. Believing in Indicators
 
Bid A-Tool said:
There is one thing that is predictable about the DOW.......It either goes Up or Down. The key is when?

Bid A-Tool

Or sideways...that's the bloody problem!

Best of luck!
 
Good News. Early indications suggest the DOW is about to rise soon. Both my Indicators have confirmed a rise. I must wait until the end of the day though to make sure the indicators stay in the same position.

It would be odd though as there is so much bad news around. Anyway who needs news.

Bid A-Tool
 
Bid A-Tool said:
Good News. Early indications suggest the DOW is about to rise soon. Both my Indicators have confirmed a rise. I must wait until the end of the day though to make sure the indicators stay in the same position.

It would be odd though as there is so much bad news around. Anyway who needs news.

Bid A-Tool

Just out of curiosity. On a scale of 1-10 how strong are your early indications?
 
rols said:
Just out of curiosity. On a scale of 1-10 how strong are your early indications?

Probably 10 at this moment but I have to wait until the close of trade. Lets put it like this. The indicators have called 10 out of 10 in the last 3 months on predicting the DOW moving up or down. What I am unable to predict is the duration of these moves. What I do though is get out when it indicates a turn. Out of those ten trades only 1 was too early (115 points out but it turned good in the end). I don't claim perfection on this. I try to ignore all the news at it muddies your thinking. The trouble with news is you don't know how much of it the traders have already compensated in to the Market. I Just go on the indicators.

Bid A-Tool
 
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