Lee Shepherd's Trading Diary

I've decided to start this blog as a diary of my trades, successes and failures.

Reason for is to realise from my own mistakes of bad trades with a view to sharpen these up, this is for all to see.

All opens and closes will not be posted in live time but instead I will disclose all trades at the end of the week and will be verified with actual screenshots.
Targets for week ahead wil be given from all target markets and shall be broken down.
Target markets are Ftse100, Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) and S&P500.

Any targets not reached will have a reason attached, giving reasons for not hitting targets (this happens) and what went wrong (I make mistakes), however is no excuse.

The overall goal is to provide hope for new (and old) traders that may find it difficult to get into (or for some, get out) of bad habits in trading and hopefully provide inspiration that money can be made from the markets.
Steady and consistantly is the key.

My trading style is that of a long term view mainly using fundamentals but with a technical approach for entry and exits. Some contracts can be held for many weeks, sometimes months before realising profits and drawdowns are obviously part and parcel of the trading game.

Any one with a long term view should be able to make money simply by leaving the cash on the index over a long period of time(years), however, outside factors make it difficult for one to be truely successful due to contract expiry dates.

It is with my intention to not just beat the index gain for the year but at least look at a return 3 to 8 times higher than the average index gains against margin on account. (this will differ from spreadbetting to direct access).

Lee Shepherd

Current Targets for target markets

Current target points per contract close are:

Target points are subject to change on a basis of volatility and will be posted before the change comes into effect.

Ftse100 = 50pts
DJIA = 75pts
S&P500 = 13pts

All targets are subject to a discrepancy above or below 10% of target. Any thing more or less than this will have a reason attached and viewed on a weekly basis.

Happy Trading.

Lee Shepherd

Trades for Week 14th April to 20th April 2008

well, another week has past and opportunity has been had by all.

All trades are listed below for week 14-04-08 to 20-04-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100, DJIA and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
DJIA = 75pts (has now been revised)
S&P = 13pts
Weekly 1200-1400pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x5 Long closed for +232pts (Average is 46.4) Acceptable
x3 Short closed for +132pts (Average is 44) Just short due to unaware of movement at time of close. Target a little shy but no action needed.
Total = 364pts over 8 contracts gives average of 45.5.

DJIA x14 Long closed for +482pts (average is 34.42) 3x long contract were closed at a loss of -100pts, -102pts and -47pts. Total points taken was +731 minus loss of -249 =+482pts.
Reason: Limit down on dow due to getting out of target market, excess margin will be used on s&p and ftse due to margin differences. That being that percentage over earnings for markets give greater value for money on remaining 2 markets. I'm sure this is something that all traders in these markets have noticed with regards to margin increases and/or slower points over percentage of gain on dow in comparison to ftse and s&p. The same reason as to why the Nikkei 225 was dropped back in march 13th of this year.

S&P x10 Long closed for 124.8pts(average is 12.48) Acceptable.

Total for week = 29 wins and 3 losses for +970.8pts.

Target off due to dumping dow contracts as margin is better used elsewhere.

1 remaining dow long contract left to be closed before expiration on 17th June 2008.

Weekly target for points is now 600-900.
Dow was taking up almost 40% of margin against other 2 combined at any given time.
S&P will now be traded with 25% more capital which leaves 15% margin for error so as a result further increases safety and allows a quarter more earnings which equates to the same as what would be lost not trading the dow. The rest of the capital has been added to savings.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Week 21-04-08 to 27-04-08

A surprising week trading in a tight range (daily moving average) and ending the week not too far off higher than where we started although shot clear of my predicted resistance of 6100 on Ftse (futures). During this week I've managed to catch a few shorts but less than I'd have hoped for. Having spent another evening in London and meeting up with Tom Hougaard (tradertom.com) I have noticed a slight increase in better trading using a more refined Technical approach which has shown an increased performance in hitting targets. Still, on the technical side I have a long way to go if any thing just to know more about it and at times put into practice. The markets have many sides and to increase my knowledge of these sides certainly won't do any harm. Although taking 24 hours away from the trading station (using PDA only) made, as always trading a little difficult although still managed to hit upper end of target.

All trades are listed below for week 21-04-08 to 27-04-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100, DJIA (one left outstanding to close) and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
DJIA = n/a pts (Looking for best price between now and 17th June)
S&P = 13pts
Weekly 600-900pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x7 Long closed for +369pts (Average per contract is 52.7) Spot on target.
x8 Short closed for +429pts (Average is 53.6) Spot on target.
Total = +798pts over 15 contracts gives average of 53.2. Spot on target.

DJIA - n/a. 1x long to close between now and 17th June.

S&P x4 Long closed for 45.8pts(average is 11.45) Just shy of target. No action needed.
x7 Short closed for +97.5pts (average is 13.92) Spot on target.
Total = +143.3pts over 11 contracts gives average of 13.02. Spot on target.

Total for week = 26 contracts closed for 941.3pts. Spot on.


Weekly target for points is 700-900. Moved lower target up by 100pts.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Week 28th April to 4th May 2008

Well this week has certainly caught me out with the Ftse not only smashing through 6100 but now closing above 6200. This along with the Dow Jones comfortably trading well above 13000 and the S&P trading well above 1400. It's almost like we've forgotten all the bad news thats still present and so the markets remain high on confidence. Could some bad news come out to destroy this myth? Who knows. As I type I am 100% short in Ftse 100 and S&P500 (bar 1 long s&p). I would be happy to trail the shorts on the ftse upto and just above 6300 but at some time soon (next week or two) we could see a pullback in the region of 5800, I'd certainly be looking for ftse to trade below the 6000 level. For this reason I am still comfortably short in both target markets.



All trades are listed below for week 28-04-08 to 04-05-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly 700-900pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x1 Long closed for +13pts (Average per contract is 13). Believed to be start of pullback so closed out less of target hit.

x5 Short closed for +267pts (Average is 53.4) Spot on target.
Total = +280pts over 6 contracts gives average of 46.6pts. Within target range.

DJIA x1 Long closed for -516pts(minus) (average is -516). Closed a day too early but was pleased with timing and value. This is the last of the bad lot I've written off since the credit/recession fears.

S&P x6 Long closed for 90pts(average is 15) Slightly above target. Held on due to hedged short against loss, also, no retracement seen prior to target close.

x7 Short closed for +90.2pts (average is 12.88) Spot on target.
Total = +180.2pts over 13 contracts gives average of 13.86. Within target range.

Total for week = 20 contracts closed for -55.8pts.(minus)
Points thrown into the minus and truely unaceptable, however, this loss had to be realised at some point before expiration of contract on 17th June and believe that anything could now shake the market confidence. This is obvious with my current market position.

Long DJIA contract dumped at loss that was bought before the recession fears truely kicked in and markets have shot up throwing my shorts out for the moment.
Next week will be looking for more downside, if the market continues upwards then this will provide me a trying week. If markets continue in this fashion and by all accounts could be deemed as getting in slightly early then I will seek comfort in the saying 'The bigger they are, the harder they fall'. For this reason, target for next week has been lowered for the expectation that the markets could possibly rise up to the challenge.


Weekly target for points is 300-600, If we continue to see upward motion next week.
If slide comes into play then I would expect to take between 600-900pts.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Trading week 5th May to 11th May 2008

Strange week for target markets, ftse wanted to climb the hill and the S&P wanted to stay in bed. Getting a small retracement on S&P helped with points this week. The Ftse on the other hand wanted to present me with a greater challenge and decided to trade up above 6200 and has hardly come back down. Given current market conditions I am still more than pleased to hold Short contracts for both target markets and am still looking for the Ftse to trade below 6000.
If 6000 breaks then I would be looking for more downside to trade around 5800 for Longs, but thats another story yet to unfold.


All trades are listed below for week 05-05-08 to 11-05-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly 300-600pts Lower target
Weekly 600-900pts Higher target if slide came into play

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x7 Short closed for +367pts (Average per contract is 52.42). Spot on Target

S&P x13 Short closed for 169.8pts(average is 13.06) Spot on Target

Total for week = 20 contracts closed for +536.8pts

Upper end of lower target reached - Small slides on S&P made it a bit easier but with Ftse dragging its heels behind we'll wait to see what happens next.


Still comfortable with current Shorts on both target markets and will be looking for ftse to trade below 6000 within the next 2 weeks although I'm looking to close off some Shorts on any potential pullback the ftse offers this coming week.


Weekly target for points is 400-700.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

P.S: Screenshot format is slightly different due to new updated platform and features.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd.

Week 12th to 18th May 2008

Well all I can say is my timing is out - Simple.
The Ftse was still trading it's range until friday when we saw a breakout to the north, this has surprised me but not unexpected. I am now convinced that the ftse is overbought and that anything could now shake it down off its long fragile legs. No news seems to be shaking the ftse and coupled with the fact of - global slowdown in growth has not dissapeared, recession fears have not gone away and the credit crunch, although maybe coming to an end, the effects have certainly not - we see huge gains (17% rise from lows)on a (perhaps) fools rally.
The ftse is only off 6% from its highs, its almost like nothing ever happened and we are trading with last years figures.
Are we back to normal? Can the Ftse go much higher? Are we under are warm duvets feeling too comfortable?
I say one is false, one is potentially true and one is fact. What do you say?

All trades are listed below for week 12-05-08 to 18-05-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 400-700pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x14 Short closed for +786pts (Average per contract is 56.14). Slighty over target, this is due to some better closing aided with an increased knowledge of a particular area in Technical Analysis that seems currently effective.

S&P x4 Short closed for 35.6pts(average is 8.9) 32% off target

S&P x4 Long closed for 31.6pts(average is 7.9) 39% off target

It would seem that I've had a hard time trading S&P this week. Maybe its because I paid more attention to the ftse, however, this is hard to prove. I wont use common sayings like the S&P been 'playing up' or 'behaving strange' or even perhaps 'doing wierd things' and has 'caught me out'. The fact of the matter is clear, the markets always do the same thing - and that is - they do what they want to. If people are the same and cyclical changes are the same then its clear to note that the markets will remain the same, after all, they can only go up or down, how hard can it be?

Conclusion for S&P is that I've clearly taken my eye off the ball this week and paid more attention to the ftse. Traded both long and short on S&P should have easily of bought home the targets, there was plenty of opportunity as there is every day, I just failed to get it.

An opportunity is never missed - just taken by someone else.


Total for week = 22 contracts closed for +853.2pts

Over target by 153.2 - Underestimated.


Still comfortable with current Shorts on both target markets and will be looking for ftse to trade below 6000 next week although I'm looking to close off some Shorts on any potential pullback the ftse offers.


Weekly target for points is 800-1200.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

Week 19th May to 25th May 2008

The ftse has finally broke and headed down. Seeing it push up to the recent high of 6390(intraday) without it breaking 6400 was a sure sign if any of its last push before the break.
The key question for the coming week is 'will the sell off continue and if so how far'.
I'm still light short on the ftse and light short on S&P with some hedged in longs on S&P to give protection on profits and limit risk should the markets bounce back up. Maybe we'll see a dead cat bounce. I'm still looking for the ftse to break below 6000, however, this weeks trading will be mostly discretionary on trading direction as it's extremely possible to see a rise before a fall.

All trades are listed below for week 19-05-08 to 25-05-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 800-1200pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x23 Short closed for +1371pts (Average per contract is 59.60). Over target by 19%.
This is due to some slightly different approaches on exits (arguebly the most important aspect) and an improvement on last weeks results. This result is still aided by a continued gaining of knowledge on a particular technical analysis system (TA is used extensively only after targets have been reached)

S&P x14 Short closed for 221.7pts(average is 15.83)
A marked improvement from last week. Not only has the target been brought back in line but also gone over it by 22%. This has also been aided by a good decline this week and by paying the attention needed to hit the targets. This has also been aided with a TA approach.


A stronger Technical analysis approach has been implemented in certain areas over the last few months and I'm now just starting to see the result of the hard work and long hours that has been put in. I'd like to mention and extend my gratitude to Ceydababy(Mark) who has helped in certain areas of TA by providing not only graphs but also a great deal of his time over the last couple of months by walking me through many different aspects.
Also thanks to Tom Hougaard who has helped me with some basic and extensive Technical Analysis and has been a great help and inspiration when we've met and also in the live trading room on skype.


Although I've been trading indices for many years and stocks for over a decade it just goes to show that I'm certainly not above learning. The last few months has been like a huge learning curve all over again and I was amazed on how many things I didn't know that I didn't know (if that makes sense). As with many things, sometimes they break and no longer work, if this becomes the case then targets only will be hit. As at this time, targets for both markets will not be revised until proof of consistancy of shooting over target.

Total for week = 40 contracts closed for +1711.5pts

Over target by 511.5 - Underestimated due to the uncertainty of the move in the market and with the greater and improved knowledge of using certain instruments to give a greater percentage on returns of margin used.


Weekly target for points is 500-800. (only 4 trading sessions on ftse)
Account is currently undertraded and overfunded so not expecting too much from coming week.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

Week 26th May to 1st June 2008

No S&P shorts will be taken until after 20th June due to contract expiry dates. Current positions are now 100% Long S&P and will remain that way for the time being and not before 20th June. Trading will be Long only in this market.
Ftse is around 70% Short with some hedged in Longs for cover against risk, trading this market will remain discretionary for the week ahead.

All trades are listed below for week 26-05-08 to 1-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x11 Short closed for +662pts (Average per contract is 60.18). Over target by 20%.
Particular TA approach seems to be sticking(3 weeks). Still too early to review targets.

Ftse x2 Long closed for +100pts (ave 50). Spot on target. TA on this occasion did not seem as efficient on longs.

S&P x3 Short closed for 24.7pts(average is 8.23) off target by 37%.
Last of short contracts and were dumped to get rid.
Although not at target made a conscious decision to which I am comfortable with.

S&P x3 Long close for 34.3pts(ave 11.43) Just off target range.
Hedged against shorts so were closed off to balance account.

Total for week = 19 contracts closed for +821pts

Top end of target reached.


Next Week target for points is 400-700.

Account is now extremely undertraded and so not expecting too much from the coming week. Looking towards picking up new entrees by month end to get account margin back into a better profitable target area. For this reason next weeks target points are lower.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

Week 2nd June to 8th June 2008

Although I mentioned that no S&P shorts were to be taken I will reserve the right here to use the discretionary trading card as mentioned last week. As the market shot back up above 1400 a day before NFP results, the opportunity arrived to close longs and take immediate reversal. This was borne from the idea that if the NFP was higher jobs/lower unemployed rate then this would be a problem for inflation and would put pressure on the Fed to up interest rates and at the least hold off from lowering, if the NFP was to be fewer jobs/higher unemployment rate then this would put pressure on the markets as signs of slower growth/recession fears. Either way the market would react in the short term back below 1400, this will allow the Fed some freedom in interest rate cuts in the near future whilst inflation is closely monitored.

Still waiting for both target markets to give a steady signal before jumping in. For this reason trading will remain discretionary for the coming week.



All trades are listed below for week 02-06-08 to 08-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 400-700pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%

Ftse x11 Short closed for +730pts (Average per contract is 66.36). Over target by 33%. Results getting better.
Particular TA approach seems to be sticking(4 weeks). Looking to review target on Short Ftse only.

Ftse x4 Long closed for +215pts (ave 53.75). On target. Particular TA does not seem to be efficient on longs, this has been measured over 4 weeks and over 40 trades.

S&P x5 Short closed for +87.8pts(average is 17.56) Over target by 35%.
Same TA approach was used and has now thrown up some great percentages over target. Still not consistant so target will not be reviewed as yet.

S&P x5 Long close for +62.7pts(ave 12.54) Within target range.
Particular TA approach again has not proved sufficient.

Total for week = 25 contracts closed for +1095.5pts

Over target by 37%. Aided by the Technical analysis which is in place and guided by the discretionary trading style, of course the rally up and slide sown certainly helped and the last time we saw a slide higher than over 3% (to close) was amidst the recession fear on 21st Jan 08 (4.5%).


Next Week target for points is 500-800.

Account is still extremely undertraded and so not expecting too much from the coming week. Looking towards picking up new entrees by month end to get account margin back into a better profitable target area. Next week's target points is slightly higher.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

Week 9th June to 15nd June 2008

Coming week I will be looking for a firm entry into both target markets but will be on the look out for any drop back to this years lows. From what I see it would seem possible for the ftse to re-test it's lows from 17th March (5415 intraday), If we see this then the next drop down could be as far as 5300 for a test of the lows on 22nd Jan (intraday). If it closes below this figure then it's a huge indication that we are in a bear market. Anything is possible so maximum protection at all times (as usual). It's highly likely that we'll see a bounce off around 5600 and between 5600 and 5700 would be a good entry for Longs.

Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.

Still waiting for both target markets to give a steady signal before jumping in. For this reason trading will remain discretionary for the coming week.



All trades are listed below for week 09-06-08 to 15-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x6 Long closed for +308pts (ave 51.33). On target.


S&P x5 Long close for +58.7pts(ave 11.74) Just within target range.


Total for week = 11 contracts closed for +366.7pts

Under target by 29%, I was off wednesday for a Bon Jovi concert and for this reason no trades took place so the 134 pts that I'm off I will blame on Jon and the band.
Weeks performance on target - Rubbish
Bon Jovi performance - Excellent


Next Week target for points is 500-800.

Account is still extremely undertraded and so not expecting too much from the coming week. Looking towards picking up new entrees within the week to get account margin back into a better profitable target area. Next week's target points will remain the same.

Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

Week 16th June to 22nd June 08

Friday was a difficult day trading as I attended the IX Investor 08 at the ExCeL in London. Although being surrounded by more screens on the markets than you could shake a stick at, I was unaware of why the markets where moving as they did. With PDA in hand I was able to make some conservative entries and am now 100% Long on Ftse 100 and S&P500. Now, heres the fun part: Ftse closed friday at 5620, around the level that was highly expected but areas to be aware of for limit down and stops will be the test of new lows. Limit down will be set in around 5525, theres still room available for the price to go to 5508 for continued show of growth. If we see closes below 5500 then this is the first signal that we are in a bear market and if true wouldn't seem impossible to go to 3500. If in doubt check out 30th Dec '99 6,950 (intraday high) and the 27 months that followed to 12th March '03 for an intraday low of 3277 (53% drop). For some it seems hard to imagine that this market was higher in the last millenium than it has been in this one. Second confirmation would be closes below 5400 then followed by 5300. If this is the case then we say bye to 6000 for a few years. My take as I type is that we will see a bounce monday and close positive for the day and up also on the week.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could','would', 'likely' and 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 16-06-08 to 22-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x6 Long closed for +308pts (ave 51.33). On target.


S&P x2 Long close for +23.7pts(ave 11.85) Just within target range.


Total for week = 8 contracts closed for +331.7pts

Under target by 34%: Reason, Trading difficult Friday as was away from station but have observed and am fully aware that 2 weeks targets have now been missed. Target for next week will remain the same for comparison reasons.

Next Week target for points will be 500-800.


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

23rd June to 29th June 2008

POSTED: 5th July 2008 due to house and office move.

As you are aware my partner(Mary) and I moved house (and office) on thurday 19th June and am trading from PDA and temporary trading station and location which does not accommodate the usual setup and time is spent alot on house and new office.

No market comments as market has already moved and anything I would have posted here would now be written in hindsight and therefore be biased to be correct.


All trades are listed below for week 23-06-08 to 29-06-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x6 Long closed for +246pts (ave 41pts). Off target due to one contract being closed for 1pt. Wrong entry.


S&P x3 Long close for +39.1pts(ave 13.03) Spot on target.


Total for week = 9 contracts closed for +285.1pts

Under target by 43%: Due to house move and the inability to trade full time. Although when back up and running will resume target from 500-800.

Next Week target for points will be (anything above zero).


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

30th June to 6th July 2008

Well the moving of house went smoothly on thurday 19th June but there is some delay with regards to the flooring in the office which is delaying new equipment and setup. Time on this is unsure at present so may have to take some out and take a holiday.

Market Comment:
Ftse has broken down and stayed below 5500, we were looking at and has traded below the 5400 area, this is a signal that we are possibly going to be trading much lower and that the 6000 level may have disappeared for a few years. We will see what happens next week as the close of next week will confirm whether or not this will be low or high probability of much lower lows and much lower highs signalling a bear market that could last for years. To keep the momentum positive we would need to see a positive close above 5500 on the week which is just one days trading range to stay strong.

Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.


All trades are listed below for week 30-06-08 to 06-07-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = absolute return

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x8 Long closed for 385+pts (ave 48.12pts). On target.
1xlosing contract has been excluded and is classed as an error, although it still cost me money. Mistakes are not free. Contract was at a lower than normal value so insignificant I feel with regards to the points in comparison to all contract sizes that always remain the same value.

(1xftse contract closed for -4pts(minus): This was bought in error and immediatly closed out.)

S&P x3 Long close for +33.5pts(ave 11.16) Just below target acceptance but nothing to worry about.


Total for week = 11 contracts closed for +418.5pts

Target is absolute return: Due to house move and the inability to trade full time. Although when back up and running will resume target from 500-800.

Next Week target for points will be (anything above zero).


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

7th to 13th July 2008

The office now has internet and T.V setup but due to delay on furniture which was a direct result of the flooring, trading will not commence fully for coming week. I hope to be back on Skype this coming week but may not answer immediately due to having only one screen until desks arrive due end of next week.

Market Comment:
It's now clear that we are in a bear market and has now been confirmed by these lower trading ranges we are seeing. I would still favour being Long at this point but am keeping a watchful eye on around 5200, past this point I would be currently unclear as to the next move, so, as the saying goes, 'if in doubt, get out, stay out'. I am confident that before 19th Sept (contract expiry for both markets) there will be some write downs currently estimated in the region of 2000 pts. This can and will change on a weekly basis and write offs (usually) happen once every quarter and average to 2 weeks wages (around 1500pts). As write offs are to be expected, and I certainly welcome them, for reasons that they happen and are inevitable, I will keep posting results for potential losses between now and no later than 19th Sept 08 as contracts are written off. We've seen the gains(which is the easy part), now lets see the losses and how they are handled.

Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.

I've managed to trade from a friends (temporary) setup most of this week but only for around 8 hours a day, past this time has been done on PDA so results for Ftse 100 are better than S&P500 due to working hours which were between 7am and 5pm. (GMT)

All trades are listed below for week 07-07-08 to 13-07-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = 13pts
Weekly target = absolute return

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x11 Long closed for +531pts (ave 48.27pts). Within target range.


S&P x3 Long close for +52.5pts(ave 8.75) Missed target by 33% on average per contract.


Total for week = 17 contracts closed for +583.5pts

Target is absolute return: Due to office move and (currently) insufficient setup and the inability to trade full time. Although when back up and running will resume target from 500-800.

Next Week target for points will be (anything above zero).


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

14th to 20th July 2008

Office furniture is due to arrive this coming week so am looking to resume full access trading the week after.

Market Comment:
Ftse did not break my support limit of 5000, This occurred on 16th Wed (intraday low 5067)and since has seen a slight recovery for which is a small signal that we have confirmed a bottom. Lets not forget we are still in a bear market which is now over one year. History would tell us that seeing a bottom would be very likely. It would also appear we have a possible top on oil at just below $150. Lower oil along with lower commodities will help stem inflation to which will give the BOE some room to cut interest rates if necessary to steady GDP growth, although, lower interest rates = lower pound = higher cost on imports = higher inflation. Tough times follow. Banks around the globe also appear to have hit a possible bottom giving a well earned boost to the financial sector here in the U.K ending the week higher by over 11% but still down on a 1 year period by over 40%. Weak signal for Longs more so than Shorts but a signal it is. If not in trades already would be looking for more support to be found in 5500 area to confirm a stronger bottom. Would be looking for some bounces downward to confirm the (possible) bottom before getting back in the 5500 trading area. Trading will remain difficult and although I have carried out many simulations involving similar situations and time periods, I have not had the pleasure in trading this one live and in full time. This is my first live time trading in a bear market. Lets see how I fare.
S&P: How are we handling the losses:
This hit a critical support area for me this week on Tues 15th when it touched 1200. Partly expecting this and working quick and pre-emptively I closed 5 contracts on sunday night to which was a long night and day into monday 14th at the 1250 area for 4 losses of 113.4pts and 1 gain of 4.5pts, again closed a further 3 on Tuesday 15th for 3 losses at 279pts at around the 1215 area. Wednesday gave a great boost followed by the days after to close up on the week, this was aided by the bank reports coming in stronger than expected. Further right downs in this market is on hold until further notice.
Hindsight: What an unexciting world I would live in if I could see the future, it would seem that if I had of held onto the contracts they would have bounced back, however, I dont trade in hope, I trade what I see and on possibilities. The earlier part of the week the banking sector could have came in far worse than expected driving the S&P well below 1200, Mr Bernanke could have said the economy was fine and thus (at least) steadying the oil market if not driving it upward. Limit down is in place until further notice so no more contracts will be bought until a stronger confirmation is giving that we have found a bottom. Conflicting times remain.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.


All trades are listed below for week 14-07-08 to 20-07-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse = 50pts
S&P = (minus) pts. with limit down in place until further notice. (write offs as explained in last weeks blog)
Weekly target = absolute return

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x7 Long closed for +311pts (ave 44.42pts). Out of range by 11.2%. A little concern got my finger a little nervous so some contracts where sold slightly short of target. Am now trading with the left hand.


S&P x10 Long closed for -582.2pts MINUS (ave -58.22) Out of target by -548% wow. Although to be expected as writeoffs where imminent as per last weeks blog.


Total for week = 17 contracts closed for -271.2pts (MINUS)

Target is absolute return: Due to office move and (currently) insufficient setup and the inability to trade fully with multi screen. Although when back up and running will resume target from 500-800.

Next Week target for points will be (anything above zero).


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

21st to 27th July 2008

Not many trades this week as was ill for 2 days which affected trading.

Market Comment:
Ftse didn't quite make it into the 5500 area we are looking for to confirm a possible bottom. Maybe next week we will see it trade over 5500 and in the next month see 5500 as more of a support line. Oil trading much lower to $123 is also helping to find support in the markets globally. Closing down on the week makes for another interesting week coming as the market belongs to anyone at this time. We must be prepared for this to trade subsequently lower than 5000.

S&P closed also down slightly on the week, this will make it interesting for the nikkei225 open monday morning as this closed firmly up on the week. Interestingly I will be looking to see how Asia trades (sunday night) monday morning as it will either fall on the back of the U.S close on friday and then we will have to see what America does, or, it will rise and lead the way ready for when everyone awakes. Although seems simple and obvious, some great
divergence is something that is seen here. I still feel its very much a two way market at the moment but am seeing a fraction amount more support for bulls. For this reason I will remain trading 100% Long in all target markets.

S&P: How are we handling the losses:
Although unplanned, one contract was closed at a loss of -57.6 pts. I have now released limit down on this market and will commence trading from next week onwards. This was done instead of sitting pretty with a loss, close it, then buy back and trade the current range. Worst case is that it goes back to price I originally bought at in one straight rise and I lose the spread/commission paid. Although possible, it is of course unlikely that the S&P will do a straight rise to 1338. By doing this I can now buy the contract back for more than 20pts better than I closed at. As long as the market remains moving up and down we will continue to make money with this one contract on the range.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.


Have now fully reviewed all the trades carried out in the last shorting period along with the certain Technical tools being used. I am satisfactorily pleased to confirm that an extra 10pts can be successfully gained on ftse only. Targets for markets will now have Short and Long points to gain. Reviewing the same for S&P came in as expected when trading. Conclusion: didn't work on this occassion.


All trades are listed below for week 21-07-08 to 27-07-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = (absolute return)

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x7 Long closed for +347pts (ave 49.57pts). Spot on target.


S&P x1 Long closed for -57.6pts MINUS (ave -57.6) No target was due as was in limit down. Contract closed for range trading possibilities.

Total for week = 8 contracts closed for +289.4pts


Target is now back in place and will resume where left off.

Next Week target for points will be 500-800


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

28th July to 3rd August 2008

Had the weekend off and have only just got round to posting last weeks results.

Market Comment:
Ftse 100 seems to have found a bottom although we are still in a confirmation period. Anyone looking to get in could enter light in the hope of another run up to 5500. If we cross this level, which has been tried several times now, may then turn into more of a support as oppose to the resistance it appears to be throwing up.

Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 28-07-08 to 3-08-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x7 Long closed for +336pts (ave 48pts). Spot on target.


S&P x6 Long closed for +62.7pts (ave 10.45pts) Missed target by 20%. Due to constant target misses, target and performance is now under review. Lets see how we do this week.

Note: One entry not mentioned in results for which shows up on screenshot. 1x S&P Long opened in error and closed immediately. In this instance it run into profit by +0.3pts but due to being an error is not recorded in actual results. Errors happen from time to time and are closed out quickly, some making money, some losing.

Total for week = 13 contracts closed for +398.7pts

Missed weekly target by 21%.

2 Ftse contracts would have done it and there were a few missed opportunities during this weeks trading. A more firm stance should make points over 500 on a weekly basis once again.


Next Week target for points will be 500-800 - Remaining the same until reached.


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

4th to 10th August 2008

Market Comment:
Ftse closed at 5489 up +135 on week.
Ftse 100 has still not closed above the 5500 level where we are seeing some fantastic resistance. Note to spreadbettors: Dont be fooled in to thinking the market closed the week above this level or any day this week, it didn't, beware: these are bookies prices. Anyway, some have asked why this level is important, it is a level to which would still confirm growth, albeit small. Inflation is being helped on the lower side with falls in oil and other commodities (energy), corn and other commodities (Grain) as well as gold. This will all help to reduce inflation and thus give the BOE a bit of room to move the rates lower by 25bp by end of year. We are seeing prices drop in shops by 50% off here and 75% off there as well as many great offers in the food industry and supermarkets. We're seeing less employment and jobs disappearing which will help prevent people from demanding higher wages which further reduces the risk of wage inflation. We've also witnessed the return of those great lending adverts and loan offers not only on the t.v but in papers, billboards, banks and radio. This is as sure sign they have money to give away, so lets borrow money and go and spend it, we'll raise this economy back up. We are currently tracking 5800 to 6200 by year end.


Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 04-08-08 to 10-08-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x14 Long closed for +722pts (ave 51.57pts). Spot on target.

NOTE: 1x error on ftse contract not included in results but visable on screenshot. Was of incorrect size and as a result was closed out immediately when noticed. In this instance there was a small profit of +5pts.


S&P x6 Long closed for +74.3pts (ave 12.38pts) Within target range.



Total for week = 20 contracts closed for +796.3pts

Upper end of target reached.



Next Week target for points will be 600-900, raised up by 100.


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd

11th to 17th August 2008

Market Comment:
Ftse closed at 5454 down -35 on week.
Monday and Tuesday saw closes above the 5500 level both at 5541 and 5534, however, it didn't hold onto them and preceded to close lower wednesday and never to come back upto the 5500. We have to be careful not to be suckered into any potential bear market rally so stops would have to be tight and positions small. Next week will give us a bit more confirmation as to where we are heading. At present I would still be happy to hold a light Long attitude but this could change come monday morning so lets see how Asia does and watch carefully what the ftse does on open.



Disclaimer: Calls on the market are not always correct and never will be, the markets can change from minute to minute so a post at the weekend could possibly change on open monday morning. Also, predictions on the markets are just that, they are based on a huge array of fundamental and technical analysis to give possible outcomes, this is, in it's very nature a possible outcome and as such words like 'possible','could', 'likely', 'unlikely' ect are used.



All trades are listed below for week 11-08-08 to 17-08-08.

Summary:

Markets traded are: Ftse 100 and S&P500

Targets for these markets:
Ftse Long = 50pts
Ftse Short = 60pts
S&P Long = 13pts
S&P Short = 13pts
Weekly target = 500-800pts

All targets can have a variation of 10%


Ftse x5 Long closed for +215pts (ave 43pts). Just outside of target range but nothing to worry about.


S&P x4 Long closed for +48.3pts (ave 12.07pts) Within target range.



Total for week = 9 contracts closed for +263.3pts

Missed target by a mile, also missed a couple of opportunities during the week as the ftse didn't seem to hold above 5500 area. This is where I was looking to be most aggressive. Until I have more confirmation, target will be extremely hard to judge and so a very cautious nature prevails. This happens on occassions when the market sticks within a tight range with no general direction of which we have seen of late. Until this breaks, weekly target for points will cease.



Next Week target for points will be (temporarily ceased)


Below is a screenshot for verification purposes of this week. Click on image to enlarge.

Certain details have been removed for personal and obvious security reasons.

Good Luck for next week.

Lee Shepherd