Plain Vanilla Options Trades.

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robq said:
"The interesting thing about random sequences is that no matter how clever you are, there is no edge to be had, for this reason it is impossible to trade a sequence of random coin tosses profitably . We can actually take that as a definition of what consistuite a random sequence. From this alone we can deduce that since there are traders that are consistently profitable, the markets are not random"

Stoic, If the markets are random and if you studied a large enough sample of traders for any particular time period (not infinite) would you not expect that some trader(s) would appear to be consistently profitable during that time?

it depends on the variables and the "rules of the game". The answer is no, I would expect some of them to be "lucky" for a while and then that luck to go against them. In probabalistic terms that's how you define luck, something highly unlikely to happen, but it happens anyway since the chance of it happening is not zero. Similarly for a finite experiment you might find a few who are consistently profitable since their luck held out for the duration of the experiment. For example certain mechanical methods work during certain periods of the market, when the markets change they don't work anymore.
 
zupcon said:
Its a fallicy that people can make money simply through money management, it is not possible without an edge. If you dont know what the edge is, then you havnt got one.

regards
zu
Totally agree Zupcon.

Send anybody into a casino with whatever risk management programme they care to mention - all that will change is how quickly the gambler will go broke. If the odds are against you, and you play the game long enough, eventually you will end up broke.
 
FC,

I planned to leave this forum but i allow myself to be dragged in cause of the comments of the ******** found on this forum.
I do hope they ban me for ever and never let me back in!!

So MR Goldfish Frugi [moderator] plz ban me!! and plz DONT REMOVE this post!

Bye Bye all and Happy XMAS!!

The Maltese Bull


Here is the proof that Bulldozer was not banned, he asked to be banned himself.

On another topic:~

The Dow will go up.

The FTSE will go up.

All the puts I have written will expire worthless as expected.

May it please my fans and enrage my detractors.

I am not gloating but Bulldozer is roaring with laughter, he tells me he bought a bunch of cheap calls on the dip.:cheesy:
 
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SOCRATES said:
On another topic:~

The Dow will go up.

The FTSE will go up.

All the puts I have written will expire worthless as expected.

May it please my fans and enrage my detractors.

I am not gloating but Bulldozer is roaring with laughter, he tells me he bought a bunch of cheap calls on the dip.:cheesy:
Wait a minute!!!! He bought options?!?!?!?! Isn't that unprofessional? Isn't that betting against the odds?!?!?! Doesn't the writer have the edge and will therefore make the money?

Or is this Bulldozer chap displaying the fact that the edge is in knowing when to employ each strategy and not in either strategy itself?

Cheers,
PKFFW
 
PKFFW said:
Wait a minute!!!! He bought options?!?!?!?! Isn't that unprofessional? Isn't that betting against the odds?!?!?! Doesn't the writer have the edge and will therefore make the money?

Or is this Bulldozer chap displaying the fact that the edge is in knowing when to employ each strategy and not in either strategy itself?

Cheers,
PKFFW
Do you know what to be professional actually means ? I don't think you do, otherwise you would not make the remarks that you do ....:rolleyes:
 
random sequences are an extension of man like a big toe,part of us tries to quantify our reasoning thru mathematical proof or science,but its just a part of us like the toe.as a whole we are like sheep and work in herds,and like our histories we repeat and repeat ,thats makes us predictable like the weather but we can only forecast a short span,but we can forecast and that ability allows us to profit in trading,ther is nothing random about it.
The interesting thing about random sequences is markets are not random
 
SOCRATES said:
Do you know what to be professional actually means ? I don't think you do, otherwise you would not make the remarks that you do ....:rolleyes:
You have specifically stated that buying options is not professional. Ergo, he who buys options is not being professional. Ergo this Bulldozer chap must not be the professional you so often claim he is.

I'm only applying your own stated logic to the situation. If you find the logic faulty then look to yourself.

Cheers,
PKFFW
 
ammo said:
as a whole we are like sheep and work in herds,and like our histories we repeat and repeat ,thats makes us predictable like the weather but we can only forecast a short span,but we can forecast and that ability allows us to profit in trading, there is nothing random about it.
Yes, the weather is predictable in the short term. But that is because weather phenomena can be observed by satellite as well as ground based observation stations, and forecasting has become a precise science. But even so, how many times have they forecast a sunny day and it actually rains all day long ?

I agree that humans behave in a way similar to sheep and we do take comfort from being part of a herd, but that doesn’t mean the herd as a whole is predictable, never mind behave in a way similar to weather patterns.

However, it is possible to state, with a high degree of confidence, where the market will not go. For example, I will “forecast” that the Feb options will expire somewhere between 6300 and 6550. Of course you could bring the upper and lower bounds closer to the spot, but in doing so confidence will reduce. But this is not the same as “predicting” IMHO.
 
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PKFFW said:
Wait a minute!!!! He bought options?!?!?!?!
Do I understand it correctly that he is now buying options ? If so, then his / this thread, with it's 1200 replies and 34,000 hits has been........ a complete waste of everybodies times.

You just couldn't make it up !
 
:LOL:
 

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Profitaker said:
Do I understand it correctly that he is now buying options ? If so, then his / this thread, with it's 1200 replies and 34,000 hits has been........ a complete waste of everybodies times.

You just couldn't make it up !

Mr Profitloser,

Please answer my five (5) simple questions on Your thread.

Your post confirms that you know very little on the "Greeks" formulas, and you know very little little in relation to Options trading :idea:

We can now see clearly why you haven't traded options from the day you joined this forum. :idea:

Your post #613 is a clear indication of this :idea:

Having No Position is a Position - right :rolleyes:

Must run - have a nice day, and when you are ready to start trading, you can PM me, for I am an obliging little Paddy, really :cheesy:
 
wasp said:
I am pleased you like it ..........:LOL: ........I think it is a great little cartoon.......:LOL: .........you are perhaps the only one to spot he is not shooting himself in the foot at all but hitting the bullseye ........:LOL: ........only visible to him.......:LOL: ...........between his toes.............:LOL:
 
PKFFW said:
You have specifically stated that buying options is not professional. Ergo, he who buys options is not being professional. Ergo this Bulldozer chap must not be the professional you so often claim he is.

I'm only applying your own stated logic to the situation. If you find the logic faulty then look to yourself.

Cheers,
PKFFW
There is nothing wrong with my logic, ever.......:LOL: .....but there again, my logic is not your logic.
 
PKFFW said:
You have specifically stated that buying options is not professional. Ergo, he who buys options is not being professional. Ergo this Bulldozer chap must not be the professional you so often claim he is.

Im not trying to defend Socrates undefendable argument regarding who has the edge, BUT the actual phrase he used was

Writing~ is professional and buying may or may not be

I believe that his argument is that professionals are more likely to be witers, and thats why, as a group, they have an edge over non professionals.

regards
zu
 
Zupcon

How would you describe somebody that constantly posts and screams and shouts that option writers have an edge and then does the complete opposite in buying options ? Schizophrenic comes to mind !
 
Profitaker said:
Zupcon

How would you describe somebody that constantly posts and screams and shouts that option writers have an edge and then does the complete opposite in buying options ? Schizophrenic comes to mind !

I refer you to my previous quote, which I think sums up the situation.

Ordinarily he was insane, but he had lucid moments when he was merely stupid.

regards
zu
 
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Profitaker said:
Zupcon

How would you describe somebody that constantly posts and screams and shouts that option writers have an edge and then does the complete opposite in buying options ? Schizophrenic comes to mind !
You do not deserve to have anything explained to you in structured detail with reasons because you are a dunce. As you are not going to read this it does not matter anyway....:LOL:
 
SOCRATES said:
You do not deserve to have anything explained to you in structured detail with reasons because you are a dunce. As you are not going to read this it does not matter anyway....:LOL:

Soc, you referred to a thread you have previously done called "Journey from the Basement". Can you paste the link, or direct me to the correct location on this site.

Thanks:)
 
From the Moderators:

PLEASE READ THIS - and heed the warning

This thread is devoted to Socrates' allegories relating to trader psychology, which combine to help raise advanced traders from the basement to the rarified levels of trading attained by very few. This thread forms part of the 'dark arts' of trading using just price and volume bars (no indicators or signals), and on this thread the practitioners of price and volume are referred to as 'darksiders'.

This thread is NOT to be used for debate, nor for posting your opinions of the style/manner in which this thread is formed - it is solely for those who are prepared to respond in a respectful and educated manner to the allegories and experiences posed by Socrates.

Debate and opinions can be posted on 8,000 threads on these boards but NOT on this thread nor the No Indicators Revisited thread.

TAKE NOTE:
ANYONE WHO DISRUPTS THIS THREAD by making repeated comment which is deemed by any Mod to be unfit (including but not limited to being rude, personal, aggressive, highly opinionated, egotistical, antagonistic, pointless or stupid) WILL BE BANNED, initially for one week (and extended for any further violation including use of duplicate nicks), and/or their POSTS WILL BE REMOVED without further reference to the poster.

Regrettably this has had to be stated as there are a handful of posters on these boards who have neither the manners nor the respect to allow other traders to share their valuable knowledge with others in posts on this thread, and on the No Indicators Revisted thread, without being attacked.



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## ANIMAL LESSON NUMBER ONE ## FIRST PART:~

Dear Frugi,

Ok, I understand your difficulty.
Let us create a model.
The model we will create will be a simple one whose function will be to illustrate a point.
Supposing we find ourselves in the jungle, in Brazil, and we are lucky to see the twig bird in action.
This is most likely to be the sequence of events.
The twig bird flies in with a very thin twig in its beak. It lands on a decaying tree trunk lying on its side, in a clearing. It finds a little hole in which there is a worm. It prods the worm with the twig.

The worm recoils and hides deeper in the hole. The bird persists. The worm moves from the first hole to another hole because underneath is a honecomb of tunnels the worms have burrowed. The bird drops the twig and flies away. Is this a failure ? No .

The bird returns and lands on the same spot., with a larger, but shorrter twig in its beak.
It puts its attention on the same hole as before. It picks up the thin twig in its beak. it proceeds to prod the same worm again. The worm squirms and migrates.

The bird observes this and uses the larger twig to plug a potential exit. It prods again using the thin twig. The worm squirms and migrates in another direction.The bird flies off again.

This time the bird has two twigs in its beak, both fat and short. The two fat twigs are laid down on the tree trunk. The bird once again picks up the thin twig and begins to prod. The worm squirms.

The bird chooses a hole to plug and plugs it. This process of prodding and plugging is continued until the worm is forced to come out of the only available hole that is not plugged
The bird has a very long beak, like a kingfisher. It plucks the worm and flies away with it.

Now sir, what I have explained to you above is a parallel model of what happened with the bars.
The last bar was dropped down just sufficiently to trigger the stop, this winkled out the targeted instrument in a similar way that the worm was winkled out of the hole.
If you do not still understand it I am willing to explain it again until you do.

CONTINUED ON #6
__________________
SOCRATES


There is a very fine line dividing sense from nonsense.
The great majority are unaware of its existence, or, choose to ignore it. Consequently they succeed in misdirecting themselves to choose the wrong side of this line, for reasons best known to themselves. This is a source of amazement to those very few able to correctly logically deduce and reason, viewing nearly everything you will encounter here as nonsense, pure nonsense, that the majority ultimately embrace.

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Last edited by SOCRATES : 04-06-2004 at 12:01 AM.

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02-06-2004, 02:07 AM #2
china white
Veteran Member







Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A dark-sider to the bone
Posts: 751
just noticed - a bird in brasil - sounds like me love life......


There you go penrithem, my pleasure...click on search for a post...enter the title of the thread and it wiil come up ...4th page I think.
 
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