Dow 2006

leovirgo said:
1. Analysts/ observers say 0.25% rate hike is a certainty. They said it months ago.
2. Now some reports suggest Bernanke will raise rates.

However,..

1. Earnings are not that good particularly in blue chips.
2. People start to worry interest rates effect on housing bubble.

So.. why is the market so hesitant and can't be like 'business as usual'?


Is it expecting an unexpected lifting of the rate or 'at least the intention to do so' in a near future?

Will the markets ...

..... go up 100-200 points on the last day of the fed chairman? OR.

..... fall 100-200 points as a warning to the newcomer OR

..... show no respect at all except a temporary spike...???

To be honest, your guess is as good as mine. I think the market will take a while to get used to the new chap. He is a dove and as such, will not want to be seen as reluctant to raise interest rates if he sees inflationary pressures. It is very much down to style over substance. Greenspan developed a certain way of speaking "constructive obsfucation", in a monotone voice that meant the market could not react too quickly. I very much doubt whether Bernanke can manage the transition without causing some sort of uncertainty. Quite frankly, though, I think that is more likely that the market will trade within a 200 point range from open. The non - farm payroll figures due on friday may be rather more important.
 
kriesau said:
U.S. IN TECHNICAL DEFAULT
by Dr. Chris Martenson)
January 27, 2006

In a shocking development, the Treasury Department website is openly stating that as of January 24, 2006 our national debt stood at $8,185.3 billion and on January 26th at $8,190.5 billion.

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

Yet the US national debt ‘ceiling’, the maximum amount of debt the US government may hold at any one time, stands at $8,184 billion – a full $5.5 billion less. Although called upon by John Snow, Congress has not yet passed an expansion of the debt ceiling and so the US government is now operating in technical default. You may recall that when last the debt ceiling was approached in the months surrounding the 2004 elections, the Treasury department furiously employed every accounting trick in the book (and then some) to avoid breaching the limit. They even went so far as to take the unprecedented step of borrowing $14 billion from the Federal Financing Bank to cover up the shortfall.


Have a look at this site and watch the 'spending since you just logged on' part
http://www.toptips.com/debtclock.html

the actual total does not agree with the Treasury figures
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm
 
Liking the 10 sec to make sense of it all ...
 

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frugi said:
Liking the 10 sec to make sense of it all ...
And the conclusion that you have come to is...................................................................? :confused:
 
Couldn't help myself. I've gone short at 10910. The fact that' measured' was removed was a given. 'Some further may be needed'... etc. was enough for me to be pretty sure that Helicopter Ben is going to raise. He needs to raise just to look credible and independent. I still say with fair data we could see 5%. Anyone for a big number on friday... My venereable IB research boys are calling 300k 'in house' so to speak. Bring it on.
 
lemput,

that's a 4 points better entry than I managed, but in the grand scheme of things it does not matter.

I am not sure how to interpret your statement: "My venereable IB research boys are calling 300k 'in house' so to speak. Bring it on." please expand/clarify
 
And the conclusion that you have come to is...................................................................?

Hi Kriesau,

Sorry, I didn't mean to be obscure. However your query has given me another chance. :)

I observed only that (especially where entries and exits are concerned) it is perhaps a good idea not to be constrained by a particular favourite time frame, when one has liberty to zoom in or out to better blend in with the amplitude and frequency of the current swell (like a surfer tailoring her technique to the rhythm, or chop, of the ocean).

For instance the seemingly chaotic price action following the FOMC looked positively orderly on switching to a 10 sec view and thus I could select low risk entries and exits that I simply would have not been able to see on, say, even a 30 sec or 1 min chart. (It was also easier to interpret the Tick patterns and divergences, of which I'm a big fan).

Conversely, perhaps during a slow, steady and relentless "trend day" lasting several hours, a 5 minute chart might be best at clearly displaying the market's (again, temporarily) dominant "pulse", while subduing the fluttering leaves of trivial detail that tempt one to fuss over a single tree when the whole wood is in play. Sheesh, sorry for the hackneyed analogies. :eek:

Any road, this led me to the conclusion that it is self-limiting to concentrate on extracting profits from only a single time frame, when the most attractive and labour-efficient R:R is apt to wander between them, if you like. So I run a few TFs alongside each other as usual, but now adjust their periodicity quite often, especially that of the one from which I'm taking trades. This organic, sympathetic approach seems to help (and supports my view that Xerxes wasted time whipping the sea when all he had to do was build a decent surfboard in the first place). Erm, yeess. :confused:

In regard to the movement of the Dow beyond the next few hours, no conclusion whatsoever, I'm afraid. I just can't do it. So far from my niche in fact that the beggar would have formed an imposing portcullis of stalactites by the time I was able to return to it.

I thought the chart I posted might be interesting to some, if only for the Evangeline Lilly-esque price action - unconventionally pretty if you look closely. Still, I realise my style of trading does not sit well in a thread geared towards FA, news and longer term swing analysis, so I'll forgo posting microtrivia in future. :cheesy:

With due acknowledgement and gratitude to the person who helped me with some of the above thoughts.
 
Have you been Googled??

starspacer said:
Overseas markets, Transports, Russell at record highs. Nikkei melts up.

This can only mean one thing......

The bear is about to strike!!

And it won't be cuddly!


Have you been Googled?

Don't say you weren't warned.
 
Mark Twain UK: I work in the Private Bank at a large institution but I have friends over in CIBM and they are pretty confident of a big number(not always right, but pretty sharp). Sorry I was just thinking aloud as I run currency positions as well. I am long dollars so a big number would be good.
 
lemput said:
Mark Twain UK: I work in the Private Bank at a large institution but I have friends over in CIBM and they are pretty confident of a big number(not always right, but pretty sharp). Sorry I was just thinking aloud as I run currency positions as well. I am long dollars so a big number would be good.
What 'big number' are you referring to for Friday ?
 
You know how you look back sometimes, before big market turning points, and say, with hindsight such and such was perhaps an indicator of sentiment change?

I think we just had our such and such ;

"The result fuel concerns that Google's shares are overvalued and the stock tumbled in after hours trading. At one point trading almost 20% lower."

:eek:
 
EGO2 said:
"The result fuel concerns that Google's shares are overvalued and the stock tumbled in after hours trading. At one point trading almost 20% lower."

:eek:

They have only just realised that they are overvalued?
:rolleyes:
 
kriesau said:
What 'big number' are you referring to for Friday ?


He's talking about the Non Farm Payrolls (exp 225k). It's a real Goldilocks one - too strong means wage inflation and too weak means employers are not that bullish.
 
Racer said:
They have only just realised that they are overvalued?
:rolleyes:

I thought that you might take this opportunity to top up. I mean why hold SHELL, it only makes about £12bn profits a year when you can have GOOGLE with all that growth potential? :cheesy:
 
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