macbonzo
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leovirgo said:1. Analysts/ observers say 0.25% rate hike is a certainty. They said it months ago.
2. Now some reports suggest Bernanke will raise rates.
However,..
1. Earnings are not that good particularly in blue chips.
2. People start to worry interest rates effect on housing bubble.
So.. why is the market so hesitant and can't be like 'business as usual'?
Is it expecting an unexpected lifting of the rate or 'at least the intention to do so' in a near future?
Will the markets ...
..... go up 100-200 points on the last day of the fed chairman? OR.
..... fall 100-200 points as a warning to the newcomer OR
..... show no respect at all except a temporary spike...???
To be honest, your guess is as good as mine. I think the market will take a while to get used to the new chap. He is a dove and as such, will not want to be seen as reluctant to raise interest rates if he sees inflationary pressures. It is very much down to style over substance. Greenspan developed a certain way of speaking "constructive obsfucation", in a monotone voice that meant the market could not react too quickly. I very much doubt whether Bernanke can manage the transition without causing some sort of uncertainty. Quite frankly, though, I think that is more likely that the market will trade within a 200 point range from open. The non - farm payroll figures due on friday may be rather more important.