Greece may exit the Euro ?

What if any will be the consequencies of Greece getting a Socialist Govt and exiting the euro ?

Weak Euro, massive widening of core vs. peripheral bond spreads and anything Greek related collapses (including those European banks with Greek loan exposure).

Very unlikely though: Syriza will push as hard as possible for concessions but not so far as would threaten 'Grexit'. Greek public opinion is still pro Euro and Pro EU (given the alternatives) and Syriza is a populist party.

Pat494 said:

What if any will be the consequencies of Greece getting a Socialist Govt and exiting the euro ?

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2 different questions.

The first is priced in to an extent as we expect that to happen.

The second question isnt priced in. Even with Syriza in power no one seriously expects grexit. It certainly would'nt happen overnight and steps would be taken to find a compromise and keep Greece in.

If syriza aren't elected id expect euro to be higher tonight.

IMO
Greece exit initial selloff then rally ...

I expect Euroland exports will be hit with a rising euro.

The Socialists are usually hopeless at positive economics and just spend a lot, which will be tricky if there is not much to spend.

Short Spanish and Italian bonds, long emerging markets hard currency debt (as a direct beneficiary of ECB QE). That'd work.

Probable outcomes:

1. * Syriza Wins, Tsipras Compromises:
2. * Syriza Wins, the Troika Blinks:
3. * New Democracy Wins:
4. * Stalemate:
5. * Grand Coalition:
6. * Syriza Clashes With Troika:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-...ossroads-how-the-future-may-unfold-after.html


Consequences either way is more uncertainty and volatility for the Euro - which is positive for exports and inflation as slide likely to continue.

Atilla said:

Probable outcomes:

1. * Syriza Wins, Tsipras Compromises:
2. * Syriza Wins, the Troika Blinks:
3. * New Democracy Wins:
4. * Stalemate:
5. * Grand Coalition:
6. * Syriza Clashes With Troika:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-...ossroads-how-the-future-may-unfold-after.html


Consequences either way is more uncertainty and volatility for the Euro - which is positive for exports and inflation as slide likely to continue.

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If, as now looks likely, Syriza gets a larger than expected majority it won't be 1). 2-5 are out. Which leaves 6). You're right, lots of volatility...

Graph chart here on results...

Merkel has her work cut out. Let's hope sensibility prevails and both parties compromise...


http://www.wsj.com/articles/syriza-poised-for-victory-in-greek-election-1422168982?mod=mktw

The euro has fallen sharply against the dollar after the anti-austerity Syriza party won the Greek general election.

The euro briefly fell as low as $1.1088 - the lowest level against the dollar in more than 11 years.

Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has pledged to renegotiate the terms of Greece's €240bn bailout and reverse many of the austerity cuts.

But he said that he wanted negotiation, not confrontation, with Greece's international lenders.

"The new Greek government will be ready to co-operate and negotiate for the first time with our peers a just, mutually beneficial and viable solution," Mr Tsipras said.

The troika of lenders that bailed out Greece - the European Union, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund - imposed big budgetary cuts and restructuring in return for the money.

But Mr Tsipras said: "The troika for Greece is the thing of the past."

The euro had already been under pressure following last week's announcement of a new stimulus programme by the European Central Bank.

'Stand-off'

Greece's current bailout programme ends in February, and economists say a short term deal will be negotiated, but difficult talks lie ahead. Germany has indicated that it is not prepared to renegotiate the bailout terms, raising the prospect that Greece could end up leaving the eurozone.

"There is a danger of a prolonged stand-off with the troika as Syriza attempts to negotiate some form of official debt restructuring while not reneging on its promises to voters to cut taxes, raise government spending and increase the minimum wage," said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: "Tsipras's comments don't appear to leave any room for doubt as he stated that the troika and the bailouts belong to the past,.

"You can be almost certain that these negotiations will be watched carefully by the anti-austerity movements in Spain, Portugal, Italy and France to see what measures if any Greece is able to get out of EU politicians to deal with the problem of Greece's debt, and the terms of the bailout programme."

'Face value'

The UK Chancellor, George Osborne, urged all sides to "act responsibly" is any forthcoming negotiations over Greece's bailout terms. He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that he understood why, with the Greek economy in trouble, voters were "looking for other answers".

But he warned that Syriza's election promises to spend more on public services and slow the pace of cuts were unlikely to work. "If you take at face value all the things that the new Greek government has promised, including big increases in public expenditure, I think that will be very difficult to deliver," he said.

The 3 major Greek banks have fallen sharply !

Looks like a major disaster shaping up. The country is in the grip numerically of the Left but can't do much if they alienate their rich. I am guessing that a lot of Greek capital has fled abroad before the country lands up on the rocks.

Are they going to have to sell an island or two cheaply ?

They have a E240 billion debt !!
The new party wants others to write off this mountain of debt !!
If it is written off then a plethora of parties across Europe are expected to spring up in Spain, Italy, France etc. with similar demands.

Re-employ public sector workers, raise salaries and reduce taxes ????

About as potty as one can get imho Completely out of a rational world !!

Sounds brilliant BUT nonsense - in yer dreams bozo

Pat494 said:

They have a E240 billion debt !!
The new party wants others to write off this mountain of debt !!
If it is written off then a plethora of parties across Europe are expected to spring up in Spain, Italy, France etc. with similar demands.

Re-employ public sector workers, raise salaries and reduce taxes ????

About as potty as one can get imho Completely out of a rational world !!

Sounds brilliant BUT nonsense - in yer dreams bozo

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Of course!! That would not be a problem for you, though, would it?

Let us say that, if the Germans let the Greeks off the hook, it's because it is good business sense to do it. I don't have much sympathy because they were allowed into the Euro, in the first place.

Whichever way it goes won't make any difference to the Greeks.

Stay in and pay for all past mistakes.

Leave, devalue, no access to credit markets and return to being a backwater.

Cheep holidays for us all tho if option 2

Greece can create trouble but not per se, but can create a spiral.... a motivation...The italians are not happy neither are the French......which are the heart of Europe.......

The move happened before the election, there was also a gap this morning, now closed, I doubt it will go straight down to parity, bears are looking for a better price and are taking profits, 1450 will be a good spot to revisit the recent low, the gap can also act resistance turned support.... personally I will be looking for a second entry to go long otherwise I stay on the side....

I think that our elections are due at the end of the year. That gives Spaniards the time to decide how to vote, depending on how the Greeks fare. There are, certainly, a lot of parties, and points of view, to choose from. Spanish parties are like the UK ones in that, at the moment, they are all sniping at each other but not coming up with any real solutions. You will have heard of Podemos, which is the spoke in the wheel. People are fed up with the main parties and Podemos has become such a threat that I have heard talk that the Left and Right parties may form a coalition. The socialists have said "No way, José" to that. It, certainly, would be an unholy affair.

Splitlink said:

I think that our elections are due at the end of the year. That gives Spaniards the time to decide how to vote, depending on how the Greeks fare. There are, certainly, a lot of parties, and points of view, to choose from. Spanish parties are like the UK ones in that, at the moment, they are all sniping at each other but not coming up with any real solutions. You will have heard of Podemos, which is the spoke in the wheel. People are fed up with the main parties and Podemos has become such a threat that I have heard talk that the Left and Right parties may form a coalition. The socialists have said "No way, José" to that. It, certainly, would be an unholy affair.

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Sounds like the old Left v. Right battle is running out of steam in your area. Hardly surprising when neither are popular. The tragedy is that the popularist parties are mainly built on lies and fantasy. Promises that cannot be realised. A major nail in democracy. While in Hong Kong the people are trying to usurp the 1 party state in China, just the opposite is happening in Europe.

For billions of Euros written off there is somebody on the other side of the deal losing shedfulls of hard earned Euros. Something the Left has been unable to understand. Disappearing into la la land is no escape. We have the Greens here - just as fanciful I regret to say and that idiot Cameron wants them in on the debate before The Election. They will slaughter him with their tree hugging nonsense.

Both the Left and Right have been tried and found wanting, so the gullible might give The Popularists a go - for real disaster. Thus giving lunatics like Hitler the opportunity to take over as they crave and to enslave us all. The shambolic Weimar Republic was the fore-runner of Nazism.

Pat494 said:

Sounds like the old Left v. Right battle is running out of steam in your area. Hardly surprising when neither are popular. The tragedy is that the popularist parties are mainly built on lies and fantasy. Promises that cannot be realised. A major nail in democracy. While in Hong Kong the people are trying to usurp the 1 party state in China, just the opposite is happening in Europe.

For billions of Euros written off there is somebody on the other side of the deal losing shedfulls of hard earned Euros. Something the Left has been unable to understand. Disappearing into la la land is no escape. We have the Greens here - just as fanciful I regret to say and that idiot Cameron wants them in on the debate before The Election. They will slaughter him with their tree hugging nonsense.

Both the Left and Right have been tried and found wanting, so the gullible might give The Popularists a go - for real disaster. Thus giving lunatics like Hitler the opportunity to take over as they crave and to enslave us all. The shambolic Weimar Republic was the fore-runner of Nazism.

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I'm for the greens. In Brighton they are well cool. They've raised car park fees so hit the motorist for more money to settle the books.

Last thing is to raise council tax or business rates.

Public transport is really good around Brighton including to and fro London. So I'm all cool with that.


Go Green, Vote Green, Get Moving into the goodlife

Atilla said:

I'm for the greens. In Brighton they are well cool. They've raised car park fees so hit the motorist for more money to settle the books.

Last thing is to raise council tax or business rates.

Public transport is really good around Brighton including to and fro London. So I'm all cool with that.


Go Green, Vote Green, Get Moving into the goodlife

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:whistling

counter_violent said:

:whistling

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No, it is not rape. It's luououvvveeee dude


Get jiggy with it