95% myth

Neither "95%" nor that site make sense, anyway, without context. Maybe, 100% of the accounts in those two links will blow up by 2050. Or 2030. Or 3320. See my point?

100% of all marriages are successful for the first 1 minute after the vicar announces, "You may kiss the bride." 100% of all marriages end with at least one partner leaving.
 
shadowninja said:
Neither "95%" nor that site make sense, anyway, without context. Maybe, 100% of the accounts in those two links will blow up by 2050. Or 2030. Or 3320. See my point?

100% of all marriages are successful for the first 1 minute after the vicar announces, "You may kiss the bride." 100% of all marriages end with at least one partner leaving.
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forget the future , maybe 100% will lose eventually and maybe 100% will make money eventually , at the present time 25% make money , the cftc now requires every forex broker to give this report , will check the rest .
 
I expect we continue to see a decrease in # of accounts and an increase in unprofitable ones over the next few months. Many profitable traders will either look to move accounts overseas or discontinue forex trading and move to something else, such as emini trading. Just my opinion but I've made lots of friends in the business over the many years and I hear them grumbling, mostly about trading anything in the US.

Peter
 
This figure is almost meaningless in my view. You would only have to be in profit by $1 to count as profitable. What would make more sense is what % are living off their trading account.


Paul
 
Trader333 said:
This figure is almost meaningless in my view. You would only have to be in profit by $1 to count as profitable. What would make more sense is what % are living off their trading account.


Paul
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also u could say if u lost 1 $ you r counted as a loser ..
 
a few of the SB firms admit that 20-25% of their customers are "winners" pressing it a bit futher they reckon roughly 20-25% of the bets are winners...
 
shadowninja said:
And to compare, the oft quoted 95% is what time frame?
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I really dont know where it came from , i remember Simon ( capitalspreads ) said 80% of his clients lose money , seems not far from the numbers we have here .
 
95% applied to day traders using a spread bet firm or the expensive brokers that were around in the past.

This figure is probably a bit lower now due to tighter spreads and discount direct access brokers making day trading more viable.

I would guess longer term traders have a better chance of being net profitable because they arent giving so much money away in commisions and spreads. Also day trading is much more intense/pressured and will have a higher failure rate.
 
donaldduke said:
95% applied to day traders using a spread bet firm or the expensive brokers that were around in the past.

This figure is probably a bit lower now due to tighter spreads and discount direct access brokers making day trading more viable.

I would guess longer term traders have a better chance of being net profitable because they arent giving so much money away in commisions and spreads. Also day trading is much more intense/pressured and will have a higher failure rate.
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There is more money in short term scaling,markets range most of the time
 
There is a good interview with Paul Tudor Jones on the net from year 2000.

Q: Let's play a word association game. I'll say a word and you say whatever comes to mind.

Q: Technical analysis

Paul Tudor Jones: Made well over half the money that I've made in my lifetime.

Q: Fundamental Analysis

Paul Tudor Jones: Made the rest.

Q: Are you better at one or the other?

Paul Tudor Jones: Probably technical analysis.

Q: Market efficiency

Paul Tudor Jones: No such thing.

Q: Long Term Capital Management

Paul Tudor Jones: Icarus.

Q: Black Monday

Paul Tudor Jones: It was like watching a natural disaster from the sidelines. I was intimately involved in that day, but the macro implications of what was happening overwhelmed any personal considerations that I had.

Q: Warren Buffet

Paul Tudor Jones: His aversion to paying taxes made him a great investor.

Q: Kids

Paul Tudor Jones: The most fun you'll ever have.

Q: Environment

Paul Tudor Jones: The second most fun you'll ever have.

Q: The Internet

Paul Tudor Jones: A wonderful delivery mechanism that's overhyped.

Q: Day Traders

Paul Tudor Jones: 95% losers.
Click to expand...
 
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Of course the other thing is, let's assume the traders are completely random... if roughly 25% win per quarter, then only about 3% will win in the year.

Assuming the traders are completely random is not unreasonable with retail forex accounts, to be honest.
 
arabianights said:
Of course the other thing is, let's assume the traders are completely random... if roughly 25% win per quarter, then only about 3% will win in the year.

Assuming the traders are completely random is not unreasonable with retail forex accounts, to be honest.
Click to expand...

These numbers is for all ( active unmanaged ) accounts .
 
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