What is your forecast for EUR/USD three months from now?

The euro has has been stuck under $1.10 for a while now. I do not foresee any major price improvements in the near future. A poll from Dukascopy shows that even Europeans who invest the most in the euro out of any other continent, invest more in the dollar than they do in the euro.

It might manage 1.13 in month 1 from here as it continues to oscillate while consolidating: I don't see any momentum to breach the June Highs.

After that, price should remain below the current level in months 2 and 3.

My guestimate for price this time on 24 October is 1.0622. Highest High in the 3 months 1.31, lowest Low 1.0600.

According to this poll, most of the people believe the euro will fall as far as $1.02. Almost half of them believe it will be somewhere below $1.06. :clap:

3 months from now I see EURUSD @ 1.1800 - 1.2000

counter_violent said:

3 months from now I see EURUSD @ 1.1800 - 1.2000

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It must be so nice to see the world through rose colored glasses. I am praying for a fall. Drop, baby, drop. I concur with poll results.

Range , will end below 1.11

Probably some kind of rangy price action brought up by never ending manipulations

PS It's irrelevant what the people believe imo

metrader said:

Probably some kind of rangy price action brought up by never ending manipulations

PS It's irrelevant what the people believe imo

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Now there's a sweeping statement.

hhiusa said:

According to this poll, most of the people believe the euro will fall as far as $1.02. Almost half of them believe it will be somewhere below $1.06. :clap:

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The more the crowd agrees, the less chance any of them has of being right.

I'll stick with my prediction...if it's all the same to you !!

counter_violent said:

The more the crowd agrees, the less chance any of them has of being right.

I'll stick with my prediction...if it's all the same to you !!

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This is logically incorrect. If you canvas the opinion of 0.1% of the crowd, there is indeed very little chance of a correct prediction, but extending this to canvassing 100% of the crowd, if that were possible, and the crowd being 100% of the actors involved in forex, and the prediction would be very accurate, perhaps dependent only on eventualities which none of the 100% saw as foreseeable or significant. That's as good as it can ever get.

After all, trends are made by crowds.

tomorton said:

This is logically incorrect. If you canvas the opinion of 0.1% of the crowd, there is indeed very little chance of a correct prediction, but extending this to canvassing 100% of the crowd, if that were possible, and the crowd being 100% of the actors involved in forex, and the prediction would be very accurate, perhaps dependent only on eventualities which none of the 100% saw as foreseeable or significant. That's as good as it can ever get.

After all, trends are made by crowds.

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Trends are set and driven by the few who have the necessary Wonga to kickstart a new one and ensure continuation of it in their chosen direction....the majority hop on and off in either direction and there is no guarantee that any of this group make any money. The majority are just cannon fodder who assist the few to reach their goals.

hhiusa said:

According to this poll, most of the people believe the euro will fall as far as $1.02. Almost half of them believe it will be somewhere below $1.06. :clap:

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I think you need to re-examine the poll.

19% believe price will reach 1.02 - 1.04 Without wishing to state the bleeding obvious, this does not mean "most people" ! Even if you add in the 4% sub 1.02 , that only makes 23%, which is still not "most people" !

Further.........if you add in the 12% sub 1.06 , that makes a total of 35% who believe price will be sub 1.06 level. Which is nowhere near half of them polled !

counter_violent said:

I think you need to re-examine the poll.

19% believe price will reach 1.02 - 1.04 Without wishing to state the bleeding obvious, this does not mean "most people" ! Even if you add in the 4% sub 1.02 , that only makes 23%, which is still not "most people" !

Further.........if you add in the 12% sub 1.06 , that makes a total of 35% who believe price will be sub 1.06 level. Which is nowhere near half of them polled !

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Exactly

What do they teach them over there ??

In fact 38% of the people polled are looking at price going over 1 1400 - whereas only 35% are looking at price going under 1 0600.

I reckon he must work for a US Bank ( lol) - you can fool some of the people some of the time - but you cannot fool all the people all of the time - Americans cannot understand that

tomorton said:

This is logically incorrect. If you canvas the opinion of 0.1% of the crowd, there is indeed very little chance of a correct prediction, but extending this to canvassing 100% of the crowd, if that were possible, and the crowd being 100% of the actors involved in forex, and the prediction would be very accurate, perhaps dependent only on eventualities which none of the 100% saw as foreseeable or significant. That's as good as it can ever get.

After all, trends are made by crowds.

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Hi Tom

It may be logically incorrect - but I would have to agree with C_V here

Trends in say fashion or in even say cars etc or on Twitter are caused by the masses - ie if the more people are buying new white cars then metallic or black cars then white is the "flavour of the month" .

But we are talking Currency Trading here - the largest "bent" game in the world - not based of physical masses of traders or people investing - just based on big players with big bucks.

So if we had for example 2 million traders playing the game this next month and say 70% all favoured selling the EU - because they expect it to go down - and the 3 large banks see several billions of money all pushing the price down lower - and they see a greater opportunity to make more profits buying then selling - they will just turn the table ( or the trend) and spend multi billions or more buying it to take the money away from all the millions of sellers.

Many traders just dont understand that if 10000 retail traders polled - all agreed or say 85%+ of them said yes we are selling - we expect price to go down - etc - and then one small bank and say 10 of its traders decide to buy - the majority are "out trumped" by larger stakes - not my the numbers of traders investing.

FX trading is full of "false sentiment" - after all for the big money to win - it needs the majority ( and remember 80% + of all traders lose ) to be betting in the wrong direction

Even if a poll was carried out on the top 7 banks who control over 50% of the currency market and they said yes - we are all selling the EU more - I still would not believe them - because life is short and they know the best way to make billions is always to cheat - its the backbone of the "game"

Regards

F

Retail fx volume is nothing and thus it has no effect on the market - even if all traders agreed on the direction - .

This has nothing to do with manipulation and cheating , fx real market participants are big including govs and banks and big corps , if everyone of them is looking to sell aggressively then its definitely has a huge effect on prices , example the selloff from 1.40 to 1.05 .

tar said:

Retail fx volume is nothing and thus it has no effect on the market - even if all traders agreed on the direction - .

This has nothing to do with manipulation and cheating , fx real market participants are big including govs and banks and big corps , if everyone of them is looking to sell aggressively then its definitely has a huge effect on prices , example the selloff from 1.40 to 1.05 .

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Hi tar

Agree Retail volume is just so small - what less than 8%

However - the Big Banks and even the Central Banks do manipulate and deceive - thats facts backed up by the the recent fines over last 5 + years.

They even give out false information for the COT reports - and companies like Goldmans are being investigated for continually taking the opposite side of trades to one they offer to their premium clients

FX is not regulated - it also as many "dark pools" involving money laundering and monies from illegal activities - that enter the system with the idea of cleaning it up into a different currencies.

It makes me money and I am sure it makes you money - but should we condone all the activities that go in everyday of the week ?

Personally - I hate the industry that I am involved in but its still looked upon as "legal" and its interesting and so i will carry on doing it for at least a few more years ;-)

Regards


F

This is not manipulation or cheating , ofcourse they will take the other side of the trades , banks are dealers they make the market so they are on the other side of each trade , fx is not an exchange traded product .

Forexmospherian said:

Hi tar

Agree Retail volume is just so small - what less than 8%



F

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There's no such thing as retail spot fx the real volume is around 0% some said 1-2% but i don't believe it , mt4 , ctrader .. and the rest of these retail platforms are punting outfits where you can bet on currencies , this doesn't go to banks channels , this is not spot fx .

In any case, 100% of the actors - as I was careful to say, not traders - means eactly that: it includes the major players as well as minnows like me. So I'm messing with you a bit here. But 100% is 100%.

Of course, I don't expect Goldmans to even be aware of this website or poll or to show their hand if they were. But maybe they do..........?

tar said:

There's no such thing as retail spot fx the real volume is around 0% some said 1-2% but i don't believe it , mt4 , ctrader .. and the rest of these retail platforms are punting outfits where you can bet on currencies , this doesn't go to banks channels , this is not spot fx .

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2013 it was supposed to be 5%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retail_foreign_exchange_trading

Other sources put it between 6 and 8% and then some reports from banks ( yet again you cannot believe) put it a lot higher -

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d3d46f6e-a0c0-11e4-b8b9-00144feab7de.html#axzz3gzQ5p5rU

I have seen different reports saying there are between 750k and 2 million so called retail traders ( ie not in commercial institutions) but everything I read about FX I take with a pinch of salt - as nobody really knows with it not being properly regulated and of course all the illegal "dark pools" that have recently come to surface in countries like Mexico and Russia etc

Regards

F