Is the EURO finished?

Mr. Crabs

Mr. Crabs

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I don't see how people can be very confident in the European system with such an unstable banking system. This most recent measure could be the straw that breaks the camels back. I can't imagine people having faith in the Euro when their banking system has the liberty to simply take their money from accounts, freeze them, etc.

Looks like the death of the Euro has just begun. :confused:

Any Europeans have some insight on this? Anyone think the Euro will last the decade?

Their obstacles are seemingly piling up consistently, eventually they may not be able to overcome their financial problems and that would almost certainly mean death to the Euro.

I figure savvy money has been hoarding their savings in the Franc these past several years anyway.
 
Mr. Crabs said:
I've bounced around that thread before, offered some good perspectives but I'm just looking for people to simplify their opinions.

So you think the Euro will last the decade?
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Of course it will.Germany will keep it whatever happens and so will many others.Why would they change it? I think Germany has about 80% of the eurozone gdp so greece,spain,portugal and others can all go without little affect. To me all this euro crises could lead to a really good long term buy on the euro around last years lows if it gets there
 
Lord Flasheart said:
Of course it will.Germany will keep it whatever happens and so will many others.Why would they change it? I think Germany has about 80% of the eurozone gdp so greece,spain,portugal and others can all go without little affect. To me all this euro crises could lead to a really good long term buy on the euro around last years lows if it gets there
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Flash, 80%?!? Where'd you get that from? That's mental. It would be larger than China at that measure. It's about 27% on recent figures.

I agree that Germany has committed to keeping the euro for as long as it believes the situation tenable, but the parity vs other currencies will significantly decrease if other countries were to leave the Euro and the way it performs against other currencies will change at a fundamental level. It would become more like the GBPUSD with big lot sales causing shock movements. It is my hope that this would not happen because the EURUSD trades better for most of us with more circulation equality vs the dollar. Saying other countries can go with little effect does not ring true to me.
 
random12345 said:
Flash, 80%?!? Where'd you get that from? That's mental. It would be larger than China at that measure. It's about 27% on recent figures.

I agree that Germany has committed to keeping the euro for as long as it believes the situation tenable, but the parity vs other currencies will significantly decrease if other countries were to leave the Euro and the way it performs against other currencies will change at a fundamental level. It would become more like the GBPUSD with big lot sales causing shock movements. It is my hope that this would not happen because the EURUSD trades better for most of us with more circulation equality vs the dollar. Saying other countries can go with little effect does not ring true to me.
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I stand corrected on the figure i wrote,it is of course 27%.
The argument is that if the other countries leave the euro and Germany stay,then surely we have a stronger euro as Germanys influence on the euro becomes stronger and any fundamentals would apply to Germany alone
 
Lord Flasheart said:
I stand corrected on the figure i wrote,it is of course 27%.
The argument is that if the other countries leave the euro and Germany stay,then surely we have a stronger euro as Germanys influence on the euro becomes stronger and any fundamentals would apply to Germany alone
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Aye, in ways it would become stronger... but Germany's main economic strengths are reliability and year on year consistency and when mixed with the issue of a significant decrease in volume with less countries involved (esp if those countries include Spain and Italy), I think the EURUSD might become a pair with long periods of choppy consolidation and sudden sharp movements on news/statements, rather than the current small swing, large swing pattern it follows. Somewhere between the current EURUSD and the GBPUSD. It doesn't have the inherent volatility to become a new USDJPY.

For me, this wouldn't be good. Then again I could be talking shi*e.
 
Germany still needs her markets in the sun drenched profligate South though she is more reluctant to lend those "lazy" countries the money to buy her products.
We might well see a refocusing of German export markets in the coming months and years.
If populations in other countries are also robbed of their savings to appease the Teutonic juggernaut it doesn't exactly bode well for the further political and social integration of Europe.
Maybe another grouping might coalesce around an increasingly anti-EU Britain.
 
either way my average trade lasts about 3 hrs so i guess I shouldnt be overly worried about it,but I would be tempted to buy some long term options if we reach last years lows
 
Mr. Charts said:
Germany still needs her markets in the sun drenched profligate South though she is more reluctant to lend those "lazy" countries the money to buy her products.
We might well see a refocusing of German export markets in the coming months and years.
If populations in other countries are also robbed of their savings to appease the Teutonic juggernaut it doesn't exactly bode well for the further political and social integration of Europe.
Maybe another grouping might coalesce around an increasingly anti-EU Britain.
Click to expand...

You may be right... the problem with macro economics is that everything sounds feasible and possible since we can move more and more into qualitative territory. Definitely worth considering as an FX trader, but I try to avoid it in general since we all tend to sound justified in our answers and then I realise I don't know jack all about the future of such vast enterprises.
 
random12345 said:
You may be right... the problem with macro economics is that everything sounds feasible and possible since we can move more and more into qualitative territory. Definitely worth considering as an FX trader, but I try to avoid it in general since we all tend to sound justified in our answers and then I realise I don't know jack all about the future of such vast enterprises.
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Agreed.
Anyone who is consistently accurate in their prognostications believes in their own genius, but that's only a mask for a run of good luck :LOL:
 
Lord Flasheart said:
I stand corrected on the figure i wrote,it is of course 27%.
The argument is that if the other countries leave the euro and Germany stay,then surely we have a stronger euro as Germanys influence on the euro becomes stronger and any fundamentals would apply to Germany alone
Click to expand...

That's an interesting perspective but I'm under the impression that the Euro is even more dependent on confidence than the USD, if it gets shaken enough it will collapse under the weight of the dollar and the debt the European system has incurred. The USD is simply a better alternative than the Euro and the Swiss banking system is much more stable than the European, if money flees the European banking system Europe could fall deep within not only a liquidity crisis, but a liquidity trap. If that becomes the case the bankers stuck in the EUR system will become frantic to get out of it without incurring losses in any way possible.
 
Mr. Charts said:
Germany still needs her markets in the sun drenched profligate South though she is more reluctant to lend those "lazy" countries the money to buy her products.
We might well see a refocusing of German export markets in the coming months and years.
If populations in other countries are also robbed of their savings to appease the Teutonic juggernaut it doesn't exactly bode well for the further political and social integration of Europe.
Maybe another grouping might coalesce around an increasingly anti-EU Britain.
Click to expand...

That's a great point. :clap:
 
Lord Flasheart said:
either way my average trade lasts about 3 hrs so i guess I shouldnt be overly worried about it,but I would be tempted to buy some long term options if we reach last years lows
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Cool, I might have a similar trading style usually if I can't close a position with gains within 3 hours that's almost always a sign that my timing was way off.
 
I don't see how people can be very confident in the European system with such an unstable banking system. This most recent measure could be the straw that breaks the camels back. I can't imagine people having faith in the Euro when their banking system has the liberty to simply take their money from accounts, freeze them, etc.
Click to expand...

I think you credit the general population with more understanding than they have.

The Cyprus issue isn't a Euro banking system phenomenon - there is nothing to stop any Govt. deciding to tax their citizens in any way they see fit.

Looks like the death of the Euro has just begun. :confused:
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The Euro will be fine for as long as voting populations don't see the Euro as the problem (or at least part of the problem). The Euro is a political currency. It will last as long as it is more comfortable for politicians to be in rather than out. Political self interest will be what undoes the currency. All the time voters don't link austerity, taxes, bank bailouts, etc. with the currency itself then there is no real pressure on politicians.

I used to live in mainland Europe - the Euro is their currency. They think about their currency in the same way we think about ours.

I figure savvy money has been hoarding their savings in the Franc these past several years anyway.
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Exactly :cheesy: This weekend has been excellent PR for mattresses, domestic safes, Swiss banks and property in Florida, etc.
 
Genuinely, European people believe that now Forex Market death has arrived now because of unpredictable market breakpoints. But, I would like to tell you that in Forex Trading this kind of obstacles can happen eventually. So, no matter it is last but EURO will bounce back again.
 
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ZaBu said:
I think you credit the general population with more understanding than they have
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.

I think you credit yourself with too much intelligence. The gereral population have a greater understanding, than you demonstrate through your feeble post.




The Euro will be fine for as long as voting populations don't see the Euro as the problem (or at least part of the problem). The Euro is a political currency. It will last as long as it is more comfortable for politicians to be in rather than out. Political self interest will be what undoes the currency. All the time voters don't link austerity, taxes, bank bailouts, etc. with the currency itself then there is no real pressure on politicians.
Click to expand...



I used to live in mainland Europe - the Euro is their currency. They think about their currency in the same way we think about ours.
Click to expand...
Right wing parties are gaining ground due to their anti-euro stance promising to leave the euro.They do not think about the euro in the same way as you do about yours.
Click to expand...
 
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