EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2480
Key G7 support levels: 1.2780, 1.2740, 1.2680
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.3120’ish

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Beaten down from the weekly trend-line as expected, but not “out” Allow for a bit more work under the trendline, and perhaps even a pull-back to 1.2300-1.2400. That having been said, we need to stay above the weekly reversal level at 1.2480 this week for the strong bullish momentum to continue, and we’ll look to buy into dips whilst that is the case. Good support levels lie at 1.2570, 1.2520 and 1.2480/2500. Watch and wait for a clear G7
entry signal before buying the euro for a rally back to 1.2700. I suspect that the euro won’t be in a rush this week,
so be patient – there will be plenty of time to pick your moment!

Update: The Euro has finally broken the shackles of the weekly downward trend line and has had a good spurt of
momentum moving higher. For today, there will be little chance to trade using the G7 system in the weekly
direction, and picking tops with such a strong uptrend is dangerous. I’m going to wait for next week to re-assess
the charts. Aggressive trades may be tempted to pick a top (not recommended) and if you MUST, perhaps wait
for a further rally to 1.3120 and wait for a CLEAR G7 counter-trend set-up.

Summary: Stay sidelined OR look for a counter-trend chance around 1.3120 after a clear G7 entry signal.

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2520
Key G7 support levels: 1.2820, 1.2760, 1.2700/20
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Capped at 1.3000, the euro is pausing a little before the next move higher to 1.3120. Weekly momentum remains bullish and we’ll continue to look to buy dips this week, whilst above the weekly reversal level at 1.2520. Notice that the weekly downward trend line has been conclusively broken, and this should also add fuel to a further move higher. Supports lie at 1.2820, 1.2760 and then around the 1.2700 mark. We must allow for a retest of the weekly trend-line from the top side – now acting as support, and this means we may experience a dip as low as 1.2700-1.2660. Targets for long trades are the big psychological barrier at 1.3000 and then onwards and upwards to 1.3120.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as far as 1.2660-1.2700. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

Two Trading “Best Practices” You Can NOT Afford To Neglect

I managed to get this article from Brian at Inside Out Trading and I think they make a lot of sense...

Brian here with 2 extremely critical “Best Practices” for traders that you really must not neglect, or your trading will suffer.

In my Quality Engineering days, we always sought to establish Best Practices wherever possible because it had a measurable effect on the bottom line, plus numerous other aspects of the business.

Now in trading there are Best Practices which will definitely benefit you and if you neglect them, your performance and your results are almost certain to suffer.

The First Best Practice

Highly successful businesses don’t just ‘happen’ by accident or by themselves.

…and you do want a highly successful trading business, right?

I mean you’re not in this for mediocrity or just something to do, are you?

No, you want a trading business that is consistent and most of all RELIABLE.

You want the security of knowing that your trading business can be counted on to provide both right now and for the future.

Again, reliable businesses don’t just happen, but the reason the so many traders never get anywhere, let alone taking it to that level where it IS reliable is this:

- they make the mistake of thinking that if they can just get making some money, then somehow everything will fall into place.

Where things go wrong

So many traders wind up too busy doing the thing of the business to ever take it to that next level, and just stay in kind of that ’scrambling to make money this month’ mode.

This is how businesses that ‘just survive’ get built and the owners usually do NOT enjoy the lifestyle that they want.

They find that they are working more hours than they’d like, and

They are not making nearly as much money as they’d like, and

They do NOT have the security in their business that they want.

The other (and more common) result is that the business struggles and dies, usually in a matter of months, simply because of the resources that get wasted instead of contributing to the bottom line.

So the solution is to implement the first Best Practice: taking time to work “on the business”, not just “in it”.

This is most crucial AT THE VERY BEGINNING of the venture with the most important business asset - your Business Plan.

Once that is in place, then taking time periodically to again work “on the business” and not just in it, is so vital to making it what you really want.

The Second Best Practice

Because you are the decision-maker and center of your trading business, how well you perform has a direct impact on how good your results are, so…

You need to live by the second Best Practice: making the time to take care of yourself - this means several things.

1. Take the time to exercise. Taking a walk or jogging or anything that gets you away from ‘work’ and does your body good will also benefit you in your trading.

2. Take time to detach and get some R & R. It is vital to efficient and effective trading for you to take time completely away from trading. A full 24-hour break, meaning completely stepping away from it, will do you worlds of good.

3. Get enough sleep - how can you expect to trade at your best if you are shorting yourself necessary sleep? You can’t, so make sure you get enough to feel rested.

4. Mind what you eat. Certain foods will agree with you and others might taste good, but don’t serve you well. On trading days, eat what helps you feel good and sharp.

Summing it up - and more…

Your trading is your business and it directly depends on you the trader.

Put these Best Practices into place and make them practices.

Remember to work “on your business”, take care of yourself, and make sure that you have a Business Plan.

For more on Treating Your Trading As a Business,

Enjoy!
Cheers

Brian

“The Trading Turnaround Coach”
P.S. Neglecting these Best Practices causes many traders to suffer un-necessarily.
Don’t let it happen to you! Watch the video and / or take the quiz and make your trading business the RELIABLE one you want it to be!

This article and two free accompanying video’s are available on my blog page on my site.

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2520
Key G7 support levels: 1.2820, 1.2760, 1.2700/20
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Capped at 1.3000, the euro is pausing a little before the next move higher to 1.3120. Weekly momentum remains bullish and we’ll continue to look to buy dips this week, whilst above the weekly reversal level at 1.2520. Notice that the weekly downward trend line has been conclusively broken, and this should also add fuel to a further move higher. Supports lie at 1.2820, 1.2760 and then around the 1.2700 mark. We must allow for a retest of the weekly trend-line from the top side – now acting as support, and this means we may experience a dip as low as 1.2700-1.2660. Targets for long trades are the big psychological barrier at 1.3000 and then onwards and upwards to 1.3120.

Update: Moving down close to 1.2840 – the 38% retracement level – but no real signs of reversal just yet. We’ll allow for a further dip to the support levels listed above, which will take us down to the raft of technical supports below us. Be patient!

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as far
as 1.2660-1.2700. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

Sad Facts

The sad fact is that most traders fail to make money, or even survive the first few months of trading due to two factors:

1. A poor trading system.
2. Poor money management

We can provide the first one for you – that’s the easy part! However, the second part is even more important and I want to show you what you can achieve if you do things the right way and if you follow a systematic money management approach.

I have prepared some Excel spreadsheets to show you how you can convert your small trading account into a substantial sum of money if you have a profitable trading system or profitable signals and if you know the three Keys to making money in Forex trading. But before we go through the spreadsheets, let’s briefly cover the three Keys to making money in trading Forex.


Key number 1: Managing risk per trade

Key number 2: Managing risk per account

Key number 3: Compounding profits

Ok, so let’s go through these keys one at a time. Let’s say you were able to get your hands on a profitable trading system or someone was willing to send you profitable trade alerts.

Would this mean that you would automatically make money trading your account?

No way!

The problem is that, as hard as it is to learn how to trade the market, it is even harder for most people to manage their account. This is mainly due to inexperience and wrong, emotional decisions. I can’t help with the emotional side (although there are some excellent books on the psychology of trading at available, but what I can help you with is gaining experience in converting a winning trade system or signals into money in the bank.

It’s all about money management.


Key number 1: Managing risk per trade

Trading involves risk. Every trade we take has a chance of being a winner and a chance of being a loser. There is simply nothing that will ever change that…

No-one knows where the market will go next with certainty.

What we can do is to develop systems which give us an edge of better than 50:50, and the systems we use win about 65-70% of the time. The other 30-35% of the time the trades are losers. This does not make the losing trades bad trades, but it simply means that the trades fell into the “good, but losing” group.

When a trade goes against us, the best thing to do is to close the trade for a relatively small loss and to wait for the next opportunity.

Many novice traders tend to hold onto losing trades, or even add to losing positions. This has a terrible effect on your account equity, risk of losing more and your emotional well being. Anyway, I don’t want to dwell on this subject, but I must stress that if you follow a trading system or signal, follow it precisely. Do not risk more than the 30-50 pip stop loss employed and do not add to losing trades.

More about that later…

Part Two will be posted here on Tuesday next week...

This is part 1 of a 3 part series. If you would like this e-book sent to you directly, simply opt in on the traders-live site and you will receive this, along with another report or two and a complete video series.

Cheers for now,
Chris.

After a great trading week, I'm going to take the
day off and focus on setting up the desk-top alerts
properly.

There will be no report today, and I'll resume on
Monday for the new week ahead.

It's often good to take Friday off when trading
currencies - Friday's are much like the last 5
minutes of the hour which can have big swings
and set the direction for the next hour.

See you next week and have a safe weekend!

The Sad Facts - continued

There is no currency analysis today so I thought we may as well continue our post from last week Thursday...

Key number 2: Managing risk per account

Forex brokers will offer you 100:1 and even 200:1 leverage, promising that these offer opportunities to easy and quick riches.

Don’t believe it for one minute!

When you leverage your account, you are actually borrowing money from the broker with the hope that your trading will make you money on the borrowed funds. It’s the same as taking a loan from the bank and “gambling” it in your trading account. A little leverage is OK – it makes sense to make money using other peoples funds, but too much will lead you to disaster quicker than you can blink.

Here it is: As a rule of thumb, I recommend no more than 10:1 leverage on your trades.

That means for every $10,000 in your mini account, you should trade no more than 10 mini lots, or for every $100,000 in your full trading account, you should trade no more than 10 full (100k) lots.

But can you make money at this leverage?

Of course!

I will show you later how this modest leverage can be used to convert your account safely into many multiples of the initial balance, if traded wisely.


Key number 3: Compounding profits

The power of compounding is simply amazing.

Compounding means that you re-invest some or all of each months profits back into your trading account and you use the profits to generate more returns. The only way I can show you the power of this process is in real numbers, and I intend to do just that right now.

Trading plan for our signals to explode the profits in your account!

First of all, let’s look realistically at what you can expect to achieve each month, based on our current achievements at www (dot) thetradersclub (dot) com and our previous experience as well.

The average pips-per-month is roughly 300, with some months over 500. We need to know what to expect before we can make any projections going forward. Please remember though, that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, and the risk disclaimer on our site should be read and understood before proceeding.

Now we know the expected returns in pips, we know that the leverage should not be more than 10:1 on your account, and we know that the trading system works and should be followed as it generates signals (no moving stops or adding to losing trades!)

What will this generate on our account? The spreadsheet below gives us Scenario 1 – Conservative returns of 200 pips per month and no drawdown months, at only 5:1 leverage (instead of 10:1). Take a look…

Scenario 1. Conservative returns, no drawdown months

Monthly pips 200
Leverage 5

month # starting balance pips leverage pos size mini lots profit $ profit% end bal sub final
1 10000 200 5 50000 5 1000 10.0 11000 100 10900
2 10900 200 5 54500 5 1000 9.2 11900 100 11800
3 11800 200 5 59000 6 1200 10.2 13000 100 12900
4 12900 200 5 64500 6 1200 9.3 14100 100 14000
5 14000 200 5 70000 7 1400 10.0 15400 100 15300
6 15300 200 5 76500 8 1600 10.5 16900 100 16800
7 16800 200 5 84000 8 1600 9.5 18400 100 18300
8 18300 200 5 91500 9 1800 9.8 20100 100 20000
9 20000 200 5 100000 10 2000 10.0 22000 100 21900
10 21900 200 5 109500 11 2200 10.0 24100 100 24000
11 24000 200 5 120000 12 2400 10.0 26400 100 26300
12 26300 200 5 131500 13 2800 9.7 31600 100 31500
14 31500 200 5 157500 16 3200 10.2 34700 100 34600
15 34600 200 5 173000 17 3400 9.8 38000 100 37900
16 37900 200 5 189500 19 3800 10.0 41700 100 41600
17 41600 200 5 208000 21 4200 10.1 45800 100 45700
18 45700 200 5 228500 23 4600 10.1 50300 100 50200
19 50200 200 5 251000 25 5000 10.0 55200 100 55100
20 55100 200 5 275500 28 5600 10.2 60700 100 60600
21 60600 200 5 303000 30 6000 9.9 66600 100 66500
22 66500 200 5 332500 33 6600 9.9 73100 100 73000
23 73000 200 5 365000 37 7400 10.1 80400 100 80300
24 80300 200 5 401500 40 8000 10.0 88300 100 88200

To be continued ...

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2732

Key G7 support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2780/2800, 1.2720

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.2980 – 1.3050

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Little has changed since last week, as the Euro has been in a broad sideways range for much of the last week. Support levels are listed above and we’ll continue to

look to buy the Euro into dips, with an unchanged strategy. There is a word of caution: It is very possible that we’ll retrace and correct back to the weekly

downward trend line, which now acts as a support. Today, this lies at roughly 1.2520, which is below the weekly reversal level. As bullish momentum has slowed

somewhat and the danger of a consolidation/correction is increasing, we’ll allow for some careful trend and counter-trend trading if the opportunity arises. Watch

for potential topping at 1.2980/1.3000

Update: Very little change, as the euro popped its head up briefly above 1.3000, and then back to the range. We’ll have to wait and see if we get another rally from

here. The strategy remains unchanged, apart from small adjustments to the support levels above. Probably best to focus on trading in the direction of the bullish

trend today.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as far as 1.2630. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2732

Key G7 support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2780/2800, 1.2720

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.2980 – 1.3050

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Little has changed since last week, as the Euro has been in a broad sideways range for much of the last week. Support levels are listed above and we’ll continue to look to buy the Euro into dips, with an unchanged strategy. There is a word of caution: It is very possible that we’ll retrace and correct back to the weekly downward trend line, which now acts as a support. Today, this lies at roughly 1.2520, which is below the weekly reversal level. As bullish momentum has slowed somewhat and the danger of a consolidation/correction is increasing, we’ll allow for some careful trend and counter-trend trading if the opportunity arises. Watch for potential topping at 1.2980/1.3000

Update:
Very little change, as the euro popped its head up briefly above 1.3000, and then back to the range. We’ll have to wait and see if we get another rally from here. The strategy remains unchanged, apart from small adjustments to the support levels above. Probably best to focus on trading in the direction of the bullish trend
today.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as faras 1.2630. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

The Sad Facts Continued

Due to a technical problem I was unable to post this yesterday, but here it is

This last scenario was based on 200 pips per month and no losing months, at a 5:1 leverage. We have already discussed leverage, but let me remind you that this means 5 mini lots per trade position per $10,000 in your trade account, or 5 100k lots per trade position per $100,000 in your full account.

As you can see, I have even allowed for a deduction of $100 per month for subscription fees!

The account grows from a starting balance of $10,000 to a final balance of $88,200 after two years!

Yes, that’s eighty eight thousand two hundred dollars after two years!

This has been achieved at a conservative 200 pips a month with a very safe leverage of only 5:1, and you can see that most of the growth has come about through sensible growth and re-investing profits at a safe rate of return.

That’s the power of compounding!

Note how the number of lots traded grows as the account balance grows, enabling you to make more money from the money you have already made. If you push the projection out for just one more year, the profits are an amazing $274,200!!

Well, if only it were as simple as that. The problem is that not every month is a winner (although 100% are at this time) and we don’t make 200 pips every other month. The good news is that we actually make over 300 pips per month most of the time, and the bad news is that we must allow for losing months.

Ok, so let’s look at scenario 2 – a more realistic picture of what might be achieved. I have changed the winning months to 300 pips each (compare this to the actual results in the table on the first page) and have also allowed for three losing months of -350 pips each. Let’s look at the more realistic Scenario 2:

Just curious. At your current rate, why would you want to trade for other people? Your rate of return compounded just over the next 6 years is $6,861,300.

Well we don't trade for anyone else. However we must always remember that this is still "theoretical". The reality of “Life” is that as the account equity grows, it becomes more and more tempting to remove some of the profit to pay off that outstanding debt, or buy that new car and in doing so you upset the growth curve.
It also becomes a lot more stressful the larger the account equity grows, and so it does become influenced by our emotions as well.
The message I want to get across, is to reinforce the power of compounding...but we must always keep a check on reality and realise that it is never quite this smooth - but to gain real power over your returns one must allow for compounding to take place.

Or you could take out half your profits at the end of every month, put them into some form of interest-accruing, safe GIC, whilst letting the other half of the profits compound. Surely, the return on the GIC won't be as attractive as the compounding return on the trading account, but at least you will eliminate several problematic scenarios:

1) Less stress when using only half of the profits to trade
2) Gives you a chance to enjoy some of the money you've made (i.e. the new car)
3) In the event you get wiped out or incur a significant drawdown, you will have access to capital to get back in the game.

Of course it will take double the time to realize your monetary goals, but in the long-run, the added-security will be well worth it.

Just my two cents

Traders-Live said:

Well we don't trade for anyone else. However we must always remember that this is still "theoretical". The reality of “Life” is that as the account equity grows, it becomes more and more tempting to remove some of the profit to pay off that outstanding debt, or buy that new car and in doing so you upset the growth curve.
It also becomes a lot more stressful the larger the account equity grows, and so it does become influenced by our emotions as well.
The message I want to get across, is to reinforce the power of compounding...but we must always keep a check on reality and realise that it is never quite this smooth - but to gain real power over your returns one must allow for compounding to take place.

Click to expand...

The compounding process never works out ideally. We all deserved to be rewarded, which is why the ideal growth is never realized.

amit1986 said:

Or you could take out half your profits at the end of every month, put them into some form of interest-accruing, safe GIC, whilst letting the other half of the profits compound. Surely, the return on the GIC won't be as attractive as the compounding return on the trading account, but at least you will eliminate several problematic scenarios:

1) Less stress when using only half of the profits to trade
2) Gives you a chance to enjoy some of the money you've made (i.e. the new car)
3) In the event you get wiped out or incur a significant drawdown, you will have access to capital to get back in the game.

Of course it will take double the time to realize your monetary goals, but in the long-run, the added-security will be well worth it.

Just my two cents

Click to expand...

EUR/USD Analysis 2 August

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

Key G7 support levels: 1.2960/80, 1.2920, 1.2660/70

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
A messy old day on Friday (as expected on the last Friday of the month) saw some nasty whipsaws leaving the price essentially unchanged since Thursday. This week we are bullish yet again, with weekly support at 1.2860 and various support levels above there at 1.2960 and 1.2920. The strategy remains unchanged – but the euro into
dips after a clear g7 entry signal with a target of 1.3100 and perhaps higher. A word of caution – the price has reached just shy of the weekly 38% retracement level (see weekly) chart, and the euro is more overbought than it has been since October 2009. This means we are possibly due for a sharp correction, which could take us below the weekly trend reversal level in quick time.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a sudden pullback as far as 1.2500. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

Your Trading Plan starts here…

Your Trading Plan
Your trading plan should be based around your investment objectives, your personality and your starting capital. Trading is different for everyone and it is important to have a plan that is realistic and reflects your unique personality and circumstances.
Constructing & Implementing – Your Trading Plan:

Do Your Homework
It is firstly essential to learn the basics, how and why markets move and research a method that you are comfortable with to trade: ie one that is based on sound methodology, and one you can trade with confidence, and discipline. So before you start to trade make sure you have good background knowledge on all aspects of trading. You would not try and drive a car without lessons, and the same is true of trading currencies. If you trade and “shoot from the hip”, or on tips from friends, and stories in the financial press, you are almost certainly going to end up a loser over time.

Match Your Method To Your Personality
It should be one you have decided you have confidence in and can implement with discipline. This may sound obvious, but many traders trade in a way that is totally opposed to their personality. For example, if you are impatient and hate giving back any profits then a long-term trend following system is not for you; you would probably be better suited to a shorter-term swing trading method.


Begin With A Simple Method
One fact that remains true is that simple systems work best for most traders. There is no link between the complexity of a method and how successful it is. Another advantage of simple systems is they are easy to understand and implement and this helps you stay disciplined in the face of the inevitable run of losing trades.


Begin With Sufficient Capital, Trade Small Positions And Diversify
The utopian dream is to start trading with a small amount of money and make it into a fortune in a few months. The reality is this is unlikely to happen to the majority who trade. The first thing to do when trading is start with enough capital to take a string of losses. The simple fact is: the less you start with the lower your odds of success. It’s a matter of logic. If you are hoping to get on board one big move, it may take ten consecutive losses before the winner comes. By then your capital could easily be depleted and the move you were hoping for comes without you being able to participate. Always start with enough capital to allow you to take a few losses. If you can you should hold a few trades in different areas to diversify your positions ie “don’t put all your eggs in one basket” and blow your money in one trade. To start with keep your position size small and spread the risk.


Make Objectives Realistic
What is realistic amount of profit to aim for annually on your starting capital? Many investors when asked this question simply say as much as possible. They have not sat down and thought about it, they simply have read stories of the minority who have made it big and want to do the same. The fact is that most traders’ start with unrealistic expectations and this leads them in to a false sense of security. They ignore the risks of trading; they concentrate too much in one trade and risk too much and end up losing.

So what is realistic?[/b]
Any trader who can achieve growth rates compounded of 30% + per annum is doing very well. Generally, a compound growth of 30 – 50% per annum would place you in the top 10% of traders that make money and this is a realistic goal if you do your homework.


Be Independent and Isolate Yourself
Emotions are your enemy when trading so it is important to be independent and follow your own path. It may sound lonely relying on yourself and is in fact uncomfortable to many but as time goes on your own opinion is just as valuable, perhaps more so than any others, experts or novice traders.

Don’t Lose Sight Of Your Ultimate Goal:
The ultimate goal of trading is to make money. There is no goal greater than this in trading. Though there are other benefits to trading self-satisfaction, competitiveness and the actual thrill, these are all secondary. If you seek revenge against the markets, other traders or merely want to compete for the sake of it, then the primary goal of speculating will be lost and so will your money.

EUR/USD 6 Auguts

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860

Key G7 support levels: 1.2960/80, 1.2920, 1.2660/70

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
A messy old day on Friday (as expected on the last Friday of the month) saw some nasty whipsaws leaving the price essentially unchanged since Thursday. This week we are bullish yet again, with weekly support at 1.2860 and various support levels above there at 1.2960 and 1.2920. The strategy remains unchanged – but the euro into
dips after a clear g7 entry signal with a target of 1.3100 and perhaps higher. A word of caution – the price has reached just shy of the weekly 38% retracement level (see weekly) chart, and the euro is more overbought than it has been since October 2009. This means we are possibly due for a sharp correction, which could take us below the weekly trend reversal level in quick time.

Update: A messy week, with whipsaws yesterday and no real direction. Still, we managed a good profit from the euro in session, and we’ll continue to look to buy dips to support. It’s NFP Friday so I won’t be trading until possibly after the NFP news is released.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a sudden pullback as far as 1.2500. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

EUR/USD Analysis 11 August

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3040

Key G7 support levels: 1.3100, 1.3040/50

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
August chop already seems to have set in, with Friday’s NFP gains already wiped out, and nasty swings yesterday. We haven’t managed to get into any Euro trades this week so far, and just as well – bullish attempts would have been stopped out. For today, we’ll look to buy the euro into dips with just two support levels left beneath us: 1.3100 (yesterdays support low) and 1.3040/50 (the weekly reversal level and the 78.6% retracement of the last swing rally) Be careful of whipsaw, and don’t be in a rush to enter this market today. With over 300 pips in the bank already this month, I am willing to be VERY patient.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal. If we drop below the weekly reversal level at 1.3040. Stay out.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

Friday the 13th

OK, so it's Friday 13th, and just like any other day, the sun will rise, the coffee will be hot, the traffic will be sh*t and we'll all go out for drinks after work...

Problem is, the markets don't know that everything should be normal today. Some of the dice rollers at the top of the food chain will believe that today is either lucky or unlucky (depending on what their grandmothers taught them)

Superstition does strange things to markets. And we are in the middle of the vacation period, so things are jittery enough already.

Combine superstition with thin markets and Friday afternoon drinking, and you get a nasty trading market. On top of that, the euro and the pound have reversed their weekly directions, and are theoretically "no-go zones"

I am already way over my monthly target for August - surprisingly, as August can be crappy - and I won't be trading today. I'll let the gamblers have their turn, whilst I calmly whistle around my office, listen to music and make tea.

I'd recommend you do the same. There's plenty of money to be made next week. And the week after. And the week after....

Have a great weekend, and go have some fun. Forget about trading for a couple of days. If you haven't got anything else to do, take up carpet bowls, pet-rock painting or ornithology. Whatever.

Over and out

EUR/USD Analysis 16 August

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3340

Key G7 resistance levels: 1.2900/20, 1.2960, 1.3030, 1.3100

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.
Today's trade suggestion:

A sudden reversal of fortunes for the Euro has created a large bearish weekly candle and a drop below last week’s reversal level. That means we are bearish this week, whilst below 1.3340, a long way above us. Remember that August is traditionally a tough month to trade due to thin markets creating sudden swings in both directions. The two hundred period moving averages are around about the first resistance levels between 1.2900 and 1.2960, and these are the first levels where we’ll look to sell. Targets will be back down at 1.2750 and perhaps lower.

Summary: Sell rallies to resistance levels, starting at 1.2900, after a clear G7 entry signal. Target 1.2750 and perhaps lower.

EUR/USD Hourly chart: