Binary UP/DOWN

Do you have any predictions on the end of day ftse whether it be higher / lower on the preceding day??

My calculation - LOWER

Yes, I do a prediction, hopefully every night, as to early movement of the FTSE. You can see this on the Swingin' the FTSE thread. The thread is really concerned with swing moves of the FTSE rather than intra-day stuff but I like to experiment occasionally. I am basing my predictions around the lag between the FTSE when it closes and NY when the US closes: often comparing the two sets of candlesticks side by side gives a clue as to how much the FTSE has lagged US price action after 4:30pm and indicates up or down. This is concerned with early trade only, until late morning, and sometimes all the action is contained within the opening gap.

Tomorrow I would suggest FTSE to gap upwards and/or rise early to reach Wednesday's close + 60-80 pts, taking us to 5953 / 5973. I am not trading this one.

hi saj -
We gapped up about 40 so I claim that as 1 nil to me, but you could claim an equaliser if we trade down to fill the gap today, as long as its before US futures etc. start to skew our price action. I think we will fill the gap this morning and would trade it short from here (8:06), but I am already short on the S&P and don't need any more short-side exposure.

ftse up/down

tomorton said:

hi saj -
We gapped up about 40 so I claim that as 1 nil to me, but you could claim an equaliser if we trade down to fill the gap today, as long as its before US futures etc. start to skew our price action. I think we will fill the gap this morning and would trade it short from here (8:06), but I am already short on the S&P and don't need any more short-side exposure.

Click to expand...

you did well there!

Do you know any other traders or blogs where the trader successfully predicts the EOD FTSE 100?? I have on occasion checked with The Traders’s Journal - altho his trades are a little hit and miss!!

I will watch your trades with interest. What is your success ratio with your trades??

Cheers saj.

I only started this in the last month. In 17 predictions I have been right on 11, partly right on 3 and completely wrong on 3. the risk is low so the problem is trading the predictions profitably. I am in the black on the trades I have placed but the lion's share of the points have got away. I have traded this set-up 11 times and been profitable on 7. I am only looking to trade FTSE direction early, not to the EOD. The US has such an influence that predicting the FTSE through to midday or later is really an attempt to predict the Dow: that's a different game. I aim to hit my profit target and be out by 11am at latest.

The FTSE closes at 4:30 while the US continues trading another 5hrs. This can form a significant mis-match between the two which the FTSE will usually (14 times out of 17) try to close. But the SB firms know this and so their market on FTSE futures remains open past 4:30 so their quotes can keep track with the US. So its not always possible to put on a trade on the FTSE at 10pm and see a guaranteed gain at 8am: but often it is and that's the point. If I can make a profit 7 times out of 11 (bearing in mind the risks are low) I will be happy, though you might call that hit-and-miss too! Several times I have made the day's modest target gain before 8am if the trade is opened the night before or even, best of all, at 7-ish am.

For Friday 22/02 -
FTSE to drop by 45-80pts at open and in early trade.

hi saj -

2 to me I think: this one I did trade and squeezed 23 points out of the SB co: out by 8:30.
is today when we bust out?
good luck trading.