Price trading

This is an effort to make a journal and analyse the markets taking as reference the work done by Dbphoenix (SLA/AMT), here I want to take bar charts of 1h - 4h - dailies and weeklies to define the overall context and share some ideas and thoughts about possible trading opportunities.

US30 - CFD of E mini Dow futures

Daily



4H



1H



Any comment is welcome

USDJPY - Trading Opportunity

Daily



Hourly

If you look at the Dow weekly, you'll note that it spent well over a year trying to get past 18000. Once it did so, it began ranging, eventually forming a hinge beginning in September. This is the result of efforts to find value. The trading opportunities will be found where price reverses at the limits of this hinge. At this late date, however, unless price breaks out of this hinge within the next couple of days, it is likely to drift sideways. If you don't want to trade chop, you'll have to wait until it begins trending again. At that point, you'll be able to apply the SLA.

Pricetrading said:

Daily

Hourly

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Stop triggered ... trade scratch

Pricetrading said:

Daily

4H

1H

Any comment is welcome

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my comment is ...how did you trade those charts?

Pricetrading said:

Daily

1H

Any comment is welcome

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sell GU ........thats all you need to know

piphoe said:

my comment is ...how did you trade those charts?

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First is important to understand what is going on in the overall context, in this case, as Db says we are located in a big Hinge that means that the price fits its action in a place where buyers and sellers are in search of equilibrium, that means Chop, fake signals of entries, so in this context one should look for the extremes because if not you would be trading in chop and that is something that nobody wants … so in this case I looked that the price was located around extreme and it seems that there were no willingness of the buyers to keep pushing higher, so for me it made sense to take a short trade, because the entry point was close to my risk level and the possible reward was good enough to take a chance … off course before anything you MUST have a trading plan

dbphoenix said:

If you look at the Dow weekly, you'll note that it spent well over a year trying to get past 18000. Once it did so, it began ranging, eventually forming a hinge beginning in September. This is the result of efforts to find value. The trading opportunities will be found where price reverses at the limits of this hinge. At this late date, however, unless price breaks out of this hinge within the next couple of days, it is likely to drift sideways. If you don't want to trade chop, you'll have to wait until it begins trending again. At that point, you'll be able to apply the SLA.

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Got it Db, thanks for your comment

Eurusd 12/10/16

Context.

As is seen in the 45 minute bar chart, one can observe that the price place its action around the extreme of the consolidated supply line (fuchsia), therefore this behavior could be consider as a test of the buyers to see if the sellers are strong enough to maintain the upper hand in this market; therefore at this point we can stay in front of a break out of the trend line or a FBO … let’s see what tell us the price.

As an observation look what have happened before when the price reached the extreme of the trend line (Red arrows), it was a point of inflection before to continue its down movement, so for now the initial hypothesis is that “MAYBE” we could be in front of an opportunity to enter short and play a possible continuation of the downtrend.



Entry and Risk placement



During the development of the trade I took partial profits and during the las phase of the movement after the LSL was broken I decided to manage the trade based on the 5m chart and understanding that the overall context is a downtrend.



5m



After this trade and understanding that the price action is below the consolidated trend line I prefer to wait and stop trading for today.

Update

Update … during the afternoon I did not take any trade because I was out of my trading station, however I would like to point out something as an observation … after the price broke the LSL, the Supply line must be redrawn (Fuchsia line); look what happened after the price went to test the new Supply line, area that also matches with the LSH zone, it seems that the buyers wanted to know if they would have enough strength in order to take the upper hand in the market, however the fail once again, and one could use the same thought frame that was used during the morning to establish an Hypothesis and play a possible failed break out, looking for short positions …. Of course by now …everything said is in Hindsight but I think is important to keep a record about this behavior… look the green circle.

5m



1m

Pricetrading said:

Update … during the afternoon I did not take any trade because I was out of my trading station, however I would like to point out something as an observation … after the price broke the LSL, the Supply line must be redrawn (Fuchsia line); look what happened after the price went to test the new Supply line, area that also matches with the LSH zone, it seems that the buyers wanted to know if they would have enough strength in order to take the upper hand in the market, however the fail once again, and one could use the same thought frame that was used during the morning to establish an Hypothesis and play a possible failed break out, looking for short positions …. Of course by now …everything said is in Hindsight but I think is important to keep a record about this behavior… look the green circle.

5m

1m

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The market was gently sloping down in range into a strong bear, so fading the new extremes in a rage was the right thing to do.....

1. an Opening morning reversal also fading the previous high.
2. made a new low and shorting two attempts by the bulls was the right thing to do.
4. set the base of the new range
5. second entry fading the new extreme
6 and 7 the same as 5.

Only took 1nd 2 both covered at 4

Fugazsy said:

The market was gently sloping down in range into a strong bear, so fading the new extremes in a rage was the right thing to do.....

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Thaks for comment, by the way it seems that we had similar thoughts :clap:

BTW: For those who want to make a reply dont reply all the post because sometimes it became too long ... with the first words is ok, because anyway the link is there... in any case thanks for posting

131016 eurusd

So far the price fits its action within the boundaries of a Hinge ... so for now lets wait until we can get out from the chop

Pricetrading said:

So far the price fits its action within the boundaries of a Hinge ... so for now lets wait until we can get out from the chop

[[/IMG]

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Continuing with the day here is an update.


As mention before the context of the market was framed within a Hinge, this situation means a point of equilibrium where buyers and sellers are in agree about their perception of value, therefore in this scenario the play game is to look for the extremes and play the S&R ... so after starting to see the market the price went to test the Upper limit (of the hinge), and based on the price action it seems to be in a place to execute the FBO (Short executed), however after the price reach the 50% of the previous movement, demand get into the market and new High is done, based on this action the trade is scratched.



However based on the longer term view that give us the 30m bar interval, an UTC has been triggered taking as reference the price structure; so at this point I was looking a corrective structure around the LL of the UTC (Blue Line) in order to place a long trade.



Later the signal came and the long was executed, I lock some profits and after the price was in breakeven I let the other part of the position to be managed under the 5m chart with the objective to let the profits run



This is how the things are going

5 minutes Update

One partial exit was taken the other part is still running, lets see what tell us the price action



For furhter reference is required to read since post #15

Pricetrading said:

5 minutes Update

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Final Update ... 5m exit trailing Stop