Nymex Crude upwards and onwards

Silvertip · Dec 5, 2006

Range trading consolidation appears to be reaching another potential climax. Any support off the upper range line resistance should see a potential move to $70. Fundamental factors such as OPECs recent declaration of intention to cut output by 500k strengthens the potential for an upward breakout..

catracho · Dec 5, 2006

seems we need to get through 63 convincingly and layers of resistance at 64, 65.. support seems to be at 61.70, below that may get a test of break out..(not v likely - but a possible)..

andycan · Dec 5, 2006

catracho said:
seems we need to get through 63 convincingly and layers of resistance at 64, 65.. support seems to be at 61.70, below that may get a test of break out..(not v likely - but a possible)..

yes i totally agree with you on that
it would be ideal a drop to the mid 61 and then another move up

Silvertip · Dec 5, 2006

An interesting development !

Hook Shot · Dec 5, 2006

Silvertip said:
An interesting development !

The 5th Dec was ~144cal days from the July 14th highs incidentally
But looks like the swing highs for us trade came in on Monday 4th (143d)

Either way we were looking at frid-tues for "something"..........

I am seeing signs that this Tuesday pullback could be a launchpad for getting the OIL bull back on track possibly beyond the $70 quoted earlier....... there's lots of little jigsaw pieces but here's one weird point.

The Post Katrina lows came on the expiry of the Dec05 contract on 18 November hitting virtually $55. Katrina brought in the highs of 2005.

After making All Time High in July the lows came in - you guessed it at expiry of Dec06 contract incidentally on 17 Nov.........hitting $54.86 or there abouts....

Time will tell ................

Hook Shot · Dec 21, 2006

The next 4wks could be interesting.....Feb Nymex 6332
Will 11 Dec dip hold ?

Hook Shot · Dec 27, 2006

Hook Shot said:
The next 4wks could be interesting.....Feb Nymex 6332
Will 11 Dec dip hold ?

NO!

Not looking good as we make new lows for the month on continuous.......I'm still looking for upward move and see this as just a test of the Nov lows..... for the time being...

Why ? Gut feel.... I don't think the oil story is over....

No position yet..... so this whallop gives me opp for a cheaper entry...
Watching and waiting .......

Silvertip · Dec 27, 2006

Interesting how the pipeline explosion in Nigeria had no affect on price, and infact yesterday saw a large move downwards. Still bouncing the range.

Hook Shot · Dec 27, 2006

Silvertip said:
Interesting how the pipeline explosion in Nigeria had no affect on price, and infact yesterday saw a large move downwards. Still bouncing the range.

Yep.... one could say inability to react to potentially bullish news is NOT GOOD but who knows...really ?

Crude may curl up and die breaking $55 convincingly to the downside but I'm not ready to believe that yet......... although weak bounce to near 38% indicates that option is still live.

Hook Shot · Dec 28, 2006

I'm not a technician (so should keep my gob shut).... but Crude looks as if it's struggling to go down and looks to have made an abc pbk to todays lows - a=c I think......

Tech guru's please feel free to comment.

I remain on sideline looking for a reversal up into Jan....

andycan · Dec 28, 2006

To test or not to test

crude chart

catracho · Dec 29, 2006

Hook Shot said:
I'm not a technician (so should keep my gob shut).... but Crude looks as if it's struggling to go down and looks to have made an abc pbk to todays lows - a=c I think......

Tech guru's please feel free to comment.

I remain on sideline looking for a reversal up into Jan....

weekly and daily charts..

As long as it holds above 60, potential for strong upmove remains; otherwise it is a retest of 57 - and as long as it holds above that - then still in process of basing - it just means the upmove is delayed for a while longer.

Silvertip · Dec 29, 2006

A retest of 57-58 will provide a limited risk long entry based upon recent price action, however you must open the trade based upon a technical signal as we still have the potential for a range breakout to the downside. Crude is not a primary market of mine, if it makes 57-58 I will take a closer look

Hook Shot · Jan 4, 2007

Lovely thread title ....... looks like we have blood in the streets and so good time to take a closer look ?

Warm winter, potential economic slowdown, Goldman downgrade.............So we can forget all about a Nuclear Iran can we.........or for that matter Chindian growth and ....possibly Peak Oil ??

Hook Shot · Jan 5, 2007

Watching for a dead cat which exceeds $1 - but we all know about the tons of rez piled above....

Medium Term - Will Opec and co defend the $55 ?

techcherry · Jan 5, 2007

hi,
...my humble opinion ... I lthink they will be like hawks by ( opec and co) now ?!!! I also think the oil story is not over , the sentiment turned , but very soon will turn again , 'cause even the stocks are not anymore at the surplus of midsummer ... plus don't forget cuts just by the next weeks are starting to be felt !!! and nigeria ... hmmmm...elections this year !!!!

Hook Shot · Jan 5, 2007

techcherry said:
hi,
...my humble opinion ... I lthink they will be like hawks by ( opec and co) now ?!!! I also think the oil story is not over , the sentiment turned , but very soon will turn again , 'cause even the stocks are not anymore at the surplus of midsummer ... plus don't forget cuts just by the next weeks are starting to be felt !!! and nigeria ... hmmmm...elections this year !!!!

I tend to agree.... the trendies will tell me that we are going down.... the bull market is over and that maybe so..

But like you I think crude is is becoming "vulnerable" to bullish news....the lower the more vulnerable...

Well done the shorts ........ credit where it's due.....mega trade that I missed :cheesy:

Hook Shot · Jan 5, 2007

Hook Shot said:
Watching for a dead cat which exceeds $1 - but we all know about the tons of rez piled above....

Medium Term - Will Opec and co defend the $55 ?

I-We've got that dead cat bounce which has exceeded $1

II- We also found support at the aforementioned $55
(54.90 actually....within cents of the Nov lows=2k6 lows)

It's now game on as my stop is in place.... come on Mr Crude I dare you to stop me out!!! :cheesy:

Trend is clearly not up but what the hell - risk is minimal (For Me)

catracho · Jan 6, 2007

DITTO..
Oil story (long term) still not over imho...
Only thing is mkts look at the US as the prime economic mover..even tho China is now 3rd largest importer of oil and will probably see demand growing exponentially as their living standards increase..
Also: stability (or rather INstability) is still there with odds in favour of less rather than more stability.
We may not have bottomed in oil for mo, but it's worth a try!! And even if we haven't bottomed..if you believe the China/India Far East emergence as the growth engine of the world, then it's got to stay on the "buy" radar at these levels..

frugi · Jan 6, 2007

At last a higher high follows the higher low(s)....

57.40 an initial target, perhaps.

Nymex Crude upwards and onwards

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