Riley's One Liners for Ultimate Success in Trading and with a few other things too...

Know what the line is, where the line is, when to cross it and when to stay the right side of it.

Once you've spotted an opportunity, do not wait for confirmation of your view - you're being paid for your instincts not your ability to react to someone else's.

If it doesn't run true right out of the gate then chances are you're going ta have ta kill it sooner of later - sooner is generally better than later.

I've borrowed this one from John LeFevre and put a little twist of me own in it---|

Never be impressed with and fella who flips his tie over his shoulder when taking a pee - either his tie is too long or his dick is too short, and you'd have noticed if his tie was too long.

If you cant fight wear a big hat

(told to me by my grandfather in the 60's - I still have no idea what he was talking about)

if you cant spot the patsy at the table after 5 minutes ..........youre the patsy

classic poker saying - translates well into trading as well

If you can't live the dream, sell it.

Good Luck

O, once in each man's life, at least,
Good luck knocks at his door;
And wit to seize the flitting guest
Need never hunger more.
But while the loitering idler waits
Good luck beside his fire,
The bold heart storms at fortune's gates,
And conquers its desire.
Lewis J. Bates, Good Luck.

That's a fine piece Neil. Thank you.

brewski1984 said:

If you can't live the dream, sell it.

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Oh that's good, real good.

Give a man a fish and he'll ask you to prepare it.

Every trader has an opinion - just like every trader as an a**ehole ......... but commercial / institutional traders seem to have more opinions ( lol)

Forexmospherian said:

Every trader has an opinion - just like every trader as an a**ehole ......... but commercial / institutional traders seem to have more opinions ( lol)

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So if we're the ones with all the opinions, what do retails traders have more of? Ah, got ya.

Pat - would you rule out directional trading on longer timeframes (H4 upwards) as being unprofitable on a longer term basis if it isn't discretionary (I'm thinking of people who use TA here)?

If it doesn't run true right out of the gate then chances are you're going ta have ta kill it sooner of later - sooner is generally better than later.

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Hmm, cannot really agree with this one Pat unless you are referring to scalping as almost all trades don't head straight to their target.

robster970 said:

Pat - would you rule out directional trading on longer timeframes (H4 upwards) as being unprofitable on a longer term basis if it isn't discretionary (I'm thinking of people who use TA here)?

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I’m walkin inta a minefield whichever way I answer. I don’t personally know that many traders who have or do trade on a purely directional basis. So me direct experiential evidence of their success is based on a sample so small as to be statistically irrelevant. But if I add in the consensus (anywhere between 90-98% walking away with less than they started with) me view is that regardless of timeframe, it’s a hiding to nothing.

Now of course, by random chance there are goin to be a small, small, small number who by whatever methods or means – including pure luck – have managed to turn a steady profit and are still playing the game years later. But if I were heading off inta the game on that basis, I’d be wonderin whether I was part of the 2% or the 98% and probably imagining the former rather than the more likely latter.

This isn’t a value judgement on those that do, but for me if I take a net directional play, which I have done, it’s a punt, but I know it’s a punt and not a trade. If I’m not hedging net exposure it’s a punt pure and simple. Me main business is not taking punts, but assessing an edge on a given set of conditions and when and only when I can see me way clear to locking in an immediate, typically no to occasionally low risk profit, then I’ll structure a trade which expresses me views. And I’ll stay with that trade until such time I’m proved wrong or it no longer does. And while it does, I’ll tinker away keeping it in trim with the changing vectors of global commerce. (That last bit was feckin poetry, pure en simple).

A simple example. If I know a man who has orange juice to sell at 110 and someone else I know is willing to buy at 140 then I will transact a trade. If I know people are willing to buy/sell at 140 today but I think the price will go lower based on technical and current fundamentals (both of which would be currently valid positions to take) and I sell short in the hope and expectation I can cover at a lower price later on, that would be a punt.

Lovely Pat - ta.

Trader333 said:

Hmm, cannot really agree with this one Pat unless you are referring to scalping as almost all trades don't head straight to their target.

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If we’re talking about wiggle room, fair enough. But as me above post probably suggests, I’m massively risk averse. How much and how far and how long you’re willing to watch your expectations fail to take shape and how much I’m willin to do the same are likely different. But the biggest source of capital depletion in my experience isn’t a failure to properly assess and express and execute a trade, but a failure to acknowledge you’re wrong soon enough.

Pat Riley said:

but a failure to acknowledge you’re wrong soon enough.

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I found that maximum adverse excursion was very useful for evaluating this on my intraday trading and it was one of the facets that pushed me into net profitability for the period I was trading full time. Bailing quickly was a skill I had to learn.

Hi Pat

I think its a bit like that saying - "crime does not pay"

Forgetting that Banks have made crime pay for years - there are a small percentage of proper crooks - ie bank robbers - GTA specialists - internet fraudsters - house burglers etc etc - who have never been caught and made dishonest monies for many decadess

Ok it might even be a bigger percentage than successful retail FX traders - personally I think it is over 10% who can remain profitable on going - simply because with retail size monies - ie under a quarter of half a million you have many advantages over the trade - and after all - you just follow - we are never leading

Successful retail FX intaday vultures will be around for many decades - as long as spreads do not five or ten fold and the market moves up and down more than 3-5 pips at a time ;-)

That's my view - and so far in last 12 months - not one losing day - when I have not made positive money

Even if I am in this lowly mythical 2% - on 1 million retail traders - there 19999 like me


Regards


F