Gold 2011/12

dan1986ccfc

dan1986ccfc

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I opened a long position on gold while it was still around the 1500 mark in July. Up until recently, naively, I thought it would carry on going up and up with no major dips :LOL:

Needless to say I lost a small sum of money when with a bit more nous I could have made a really tidy profit. Has been a real eye-opener trading gold, for me, as a beginner.

Anyway I was wondering what others thoughts are on Gold, December contract? I hear all sorts all day on Bloomberg from 'experts' who say Gold will be at $2000 by end of this year, by summer 2012 etc etc.

When would you jump back on the Gold bandwagon?

By the way I spreadbet and at the moment only concentrate on MA's

Thanks for reading, Dan (y)
 
Surprised not too many people seem interested in Gold in this forum tbh.
Even in the other threads there aren't ever many frequent posts. Shame
 
Many financial experts advise that portfolios contain 10% to 20% in tangible assets to maintain effective diversification. Because rare coins do not typically move in the same direction as traditional paper assets, they can play a useful role in virtually every investment portfolio.
 
GOLD

Gold rallied earlier in the week after the world’s major central banks joined forces to boost liquidity, but the momentum quickly faded as investors realised that the move would not solve Europe’s debt problems.
 
Nothing goes up for ever.

On entry, there has to be a valid reason for buying at this time at this price. It's essential to know the earliest price at which this reason 'dies' - price will only be rising because more people are buying, and if you don't see a reason to buy more, probably nobody else does either. That's the level for you to get out.

It is hard to identify is the target price at which you would close the position and bank your profits. Ideally, this would be identified by your knowledge of how far price normally travels after the entry signal of the type you have used, whilst respecting other criteria to some degree, such as overbought indicators, resistance levels etc. My advice is make sure price has a high probability of making your target and always get out as soon as it gets there. If you must hold on for greater gains, though I don't recommend it, use a trailing stop.
 
As for putting tangible assets in an investment portfolio, it's hard to see how this is good for the majority of people. (unless you're a vendor of tangible assets!)
 
dan1986ccfc said:
Surprised not too many people seem interested in Gold in this forum tbh.
Even in the other threads there aren't ever many frequent posts. Shame
Click to expand...


Gold failed attempting to reach $2000. If you look at the charts some retrace is inevitable.

I hold the view 1650-1500-1450s still to be tested before any further extension.

I also feel some gold backed currency standard is afoot once our current turmoil is over.

I think if you search for it you should find enough gold threads which has been discussed and argued to death.
 
Gold is allot like buying 100/1000oz bars; in the sense that if you dont see a reason to buy, not many others will either, but also in the sense that - generally wealthy people buy bars (not all the time, but generally) - and since that's the case, gold is nearing the price that people with higher net-wealths will buy it, but people with lower net wealths aren't typically buying it (again what your fellow traders said above).

Gold isn't a bad buy if you can afford it...You would probably have to ask the others on here if they would recommend you keep buying it. Id say over the next 12 months, you'd certainly see gold up near the 2000 range, as far as the next 4 weeks, I dont think you will see gold hit that $2,000 mark.

Hope that helps.









dan1986ccfc said:
I opened a long position on gold while it was still around the 1500 mark in July. Up until recently, naively, I thought it would carry on going up and up with no major dips :LOL:

Needless to say I lost a small sum of money when with a bit more nous I could have made a really tidy profit. Has been a real eye-opener trading gold, for me, as a beginner.

Anyway I was wondering what others thoughts are on Gold, December contract? I hear all sorts all day on Bloomberg from 'experts' who say Gold will be at $2000 by end of this year, by summer 2012 etc etc.

When would you jump back on the Gold bandwagon?

By the way I spreadbet and at the moment only concentrate on MA's

Thanks for reading, Dan (y)
Click to expand...
 
Thanks for your replies

Atilla, What makes you think it will go as low as 1450?

I'm currently watching the daily Gold chart closely and more specifically the 1540 area. This is a 61.8% retracement from the summers highs. A bounce back up from this area and I'm going back in.

What do y'all think?

Dan
 
dan1986ccfc said:
Thanks for your replies

Atilla, What makes you think it will go as low as 1450?

I'm currently watching the daily Gold chart closely and more specifically the 1540 area. This is a 61.8% retracement from the summers highs. A bounce back up from this area and I'm going back in.

What do y'all think?

Dan
Click to expand...

Previous calculations and resistance/support from last year.

1450-1500 region likely to be tested. Falls ain't over yet imho.
 
Previous calculations and resistance/support from last year? What chart are you looking at? Gold didn't hit $1450 until April 2011...I think someone is just quoting what every mainstream analyst is saying...nothing special.
 
new_trader said:
Previous calculations and resistance/support from last year? What chart are you looking at? Gold didn't hit $1450 until April 2011...I think someone is just quoting what every mainstream analyst is saying...nothing special.
Click to expand...


Haven't heard any bleeding contribution from you all year and you have the cheek to knock my calls. :LOL:

These were my predictions from last year Dec 2010. Pretty much spot on in the right directions - if I may say so. :)

=== What are your predictions for 2011? ===

Mine are:

Gold > to kiss 1600
USD > to tank further no end in sight
UK Inflation > 7%
Interest Rates to remain well below inflation < 5%
China > to continue growing at 7%+
Oil > $150
GBP to test $1.40
EUR to test $1.20
=================================================

Not only that also called the tops around 1900 when 2000 got rejected.

Make sure you follow my posts now and no abuse from you. Otherwise I'll have to put you on the ignore list again. Can't say I missed you but I never like bearing grudges - new year and all that.


As for your question re: 1650 and Fibonacci extension to 161% - you can see the battle taking place around 1650s. You see how significant that area is for resistance and support.

Mark my words... Gold is in retreat and will be even more so as economies stabilise.

The only spanner in the works is some geopolitical uncertainties sorrounding the ME. (There's a suprise for us all. Who could have guessed. )
 
MCX GOLD February contract was trading at Rs 27646.00 down Rs 4, or 0.01%. It touched an intraday high of Rs 27654.00 and an intraday low of Rs 27605.00.
 
I couldn't care less if you have me on ignore, you make it sound like a punishment:LOL:

Follow your calls?...I'd be a real idiot to do that...you a just dying to know what I'm doing with my money but I am keeping you in the dark, where you belong!
 
Atilla said:
Haven't heard any bleeding contribution from you all year and you have the cheek to knock my calls. :LOL:

These were my predictions from last year Dec 2010. Pretty much spot on in the right directions - if I may say so. :)

=== What are your predictions for 2011? ===

Mine are:

Gold > to kiss 1600
USD > to tank further no end in sight
UK Inflation > 7%
Interest Rates to remain well below inflation < 5%
China > to continue growing at 7%+
Oil > $150
GBP to test $1.40
EUR to test $1.20
=================================================

Not only that also called the tops around 1900 when 2000 got rejected.

Make sure you follow my posts now and no abuse from you. Otherwise I'll have to put you on the ignore list again. Can't say I missed you but I never like bearing grudges - new year and all that.


As for your question re: 1650 and Fibonacci extension to 161% - you can see the battle taking place around 1650s. You see how significant that area is for resistance and support.

Mark my words... Gold is in retreat and will be even more so as economies stabilise.

The only spanner in the works is some geopolitical uncertainties sorrounding the ME. (There's a suprise for us all. Who could have guessed. )
Click to expand...

I agree with you about gold especially if we get a daily close below $1533, the ar5e will fall out of it, major retrace coming imo. people are about to find out that investing in gold is not low risk or even medium risk for that matter. long long term I can see gold doing well but I can see a train wreck coming.
 
new_trader said:
I couldn't care less if you have me on ignore, you make it sound like a punishment:LOL:

Follow your calls?...I'd be a real idiot to do that...you a just dying to know what I'm doing with my money but I am keeping you in the dark, where you belong!
Click to expand...


You've already disclosed what you are doing with your investments - I was more interested in your ideas and calls.

It's just that I sincerely do not recall you ever making a judgement call about any instrument?

So what are you views re: gold now. Up, down or sideways?
 
Atilla said:
You've already disclosed what you are doing with your investments - I was more interested in your ideas and calls.

It's just that I sincerely do not recall you ever making a judgement call about any instrument?
Click to expand...

The link in my signature isn't clear enough?

...then again...it is you :rolleyes:
 
MajorDutch said:
I agree with you about gold especially if we get a daily close below $1533, the ar5e will fall out of it, major retrace coming imo. people are about to find out that investing in gold is not low risk or even medium risk for that matter. long long term I can see gold doing well but I can see a train wreck coming.
Click to expand...

I still have a short bias until 1450s target (which I see as the major retrace from the 1900s) is hit but I'm not too sure about the train wreck part.

The Euro crises is not over and will only be resolved by printing presses.

US yet to make any dent on the twin defecits.

Neither EU or US has ability to pay back collosal debts in the new challenging market place with far greater competition than before. Inflation is the only real cure in the absence of tax rises.

Looming Asian bubble up ahead.

Throw in some regional tiffs and ongoing Iran Iraq saga - and there is a recipee for some ripe old inflation and uncertainty for gold to maintain

Gold - I doubt will ever drop to the $250 or even $500 levels again. I reckon $1000-1200 likely to be final line in the sand if 1450 doesn't see a good bounce back up to 1640s.

Not too sure but I suspect as the L-type recovery and stability slowly kicks in this is what we'll see for 2012. Continued downward move.
 
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