Following the money: catching the trends before they realize

I've been making threads for a while so instead I thought I would just put all my thoughts into one thread. My focus is speculating where savvy deep pockets will stash their cash before a trend is created out of it.

I called this past gold bounce, USD breaking support and the EUR cornering to the upside, all in the short term. Usually I focus on significant short-term moves and mod-term reversals.

Mod-tem my outlook is to buy the AUD, short the EUR as I mentioned in prior threads. This trend realized partially but the EUR has been holding up staunchly. The AUD on the other hand moved up much quicker than I anticipated.

This leads me to a new short-term idea that the EURUSD will pivot, the EUR will fracture dragging the AUD down with it in the short-term. The CAD will move up contrary, after the CAD bounces the USD will pull back and the AUD will resume its' high intensity rebound. :idea:

Gold will pull back into the $1,300 range to re-energize its' short-term bounce so it may extend into the mod-term and subsequently long-term as the market takes profits and reverses bearish early next year. :clover:

So there you have it. This will be my official thread for all the macro-trends I find that can be taken advantage of. I intend to post my thoughts on everything macro-market related, not only on the forex and commodity markets but in stock markets as well.

Good stuff.

CostaKapo said:

Good stuff.

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Thanks glad to see some appreciation.

Mr. Crabs said:

Gold will pull back into the $1,300 range to re-energize its' short-term bounce so it may extend into the mod-term and subsequently long-term as the market takes profits and reverses bearish early next year. :clover:

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Still waiting on gold to fracture, would like to see it pull back under 1,330 and to find support right around 1,320 before rebounding and re-energizing the bulls.

The first short-term sell signal for gold is in.

Mr. Crabs said:

Still waiting on gold to fracture, would like to see it pull back under 1,330 and to find support right around 1,320 before rebounding and re-energizing the bulls.

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So gold fractured right after I happened to post this reply to myself early this morning and it is having a hard time breaking back out. It pulled off a relatively strong rebound initially but it pulled back to intra-day support and has shown weakness considering it has not bounced back up strongly a second time. Looks like some profits on the short-side were taken and positions are reloading. If this fractures again it will send a strong sell signal and create a greater profit allowance for those who already have short positions. I think there's a strong chance it will fracture again within the next 12 hours.

Mr. Crabs said:

Gold will pull back into the $1,300 range

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Mr. Crabs said:

Still waiting on gold to fracture, would like to see it pull back under 1,330 and to find support right around 1,320

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post: 29/10/13; Gold low: $1340

Mr. Crabs said:

So gold fractured right after I happened to post this reply to myself

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wtf does 'fracture' mean? if you meant it to mean a 'sell off at specific price levels i have mentioned' then you have failed miserably as your levels keep changing & they still havent hit them yet. joke.

and then.....

post: 29/10/13; Gold low: $1340

Mr. Crabs said:

I think there's a strong chance it will fracture again within the next 12 hours.

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...congrats on finally including a time frame when mentioning 'fracture' but hang on, you seem to be missing 'price' now....how convenient. did it 'fracture' when hitting the low of 1338?

you sound like a shill at best & a potential vendor at worst.

g/l.

Gold cracked again. Things moving forward as I have expected.

rsh01 said:

post: 29/10/13; Gold low: $1340


wtf does 'fracture' mean? if you meant it to mean a 'sell off at specific price levels i have mentioned' then you have failed miserably as your levels keep changing & they still havent hit them yet. joke.

and then.....

post: 29/10/13; Gold low: $1340

...congrats on finally including a time frame when mentioning 'fracture' but hang on, you seem to be missing 'price' now....how convenient. did it 'fracture' when hitting the low of 1338?

you sound like a shill at best & a potential vendor at worst.

g/l.

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Some people have no class. Did you really expect me to read this / address this entirely?

By fracture I meant the price would fracture i.e. drop sharply and significantly. I have been proven correct again, this hours $23 drop will likely prove to be a sell signal to traders. I covered my short position at a profit and will maintain only a nominal short position until gold turns bullish again.

XD funny how gold "fractured" 10 minutes after you posted.

rsh01 said:

post: 29/10/13; Gold low: $1340


wtf does 'fracture' mean? if you meant it to mean a 'sell off at specific price levels i have mentioned' then you have failed miserably as your levels keep changing & they still havent hit them yet. joke.

and then.....

post: 29/10/13; Gold low: $1340

...congrats on finally including a time frame when mentioning 'fracture' but hang on, you seem to be missing 'price' now....how convenient. did it 'fracture' when hitting the low of 1338?

you sound like a shill at best & a potential vendor at worst.

g/l.

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Ain't life a peach?

Mr. Crabs said:

Some people have no class. Did you really
expect me to read this / address this entirely?

By fracture I meant the price would fracture i.e. drop sharply and significantly. I have been proven correct again, this hours $23 drop will likely prove to be a sell signal to traders. I covered my short position at a profit and will maintain only a nominal short position until gold turns bullish again.

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let google educate you in the english language....

definition of fracture: "the cracking or breaking of a hard object or material"

(nb: note no mention of drop sharply/significantly/'or drop/fall in any way whatsoever')

so lets replace object / material with 'level' ie price level - great, i can hang with that, but both levels you have mentioned so far are: 1300 & 1330 (changed v swiftly), & so far price HAS NOT broken these levels.

i will ignore the ad hominem comments.

what is intriguing though is in your reply you have mentioned a much more specific time frame - 'this hour'. congratulations. now all you need to do is stop backslapping yourself:

Mr. Crabs said:

So gold fractured right after I happened to post this reply to myself

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....when clearly you are just making sh1t up (including new meanings of words).

laters.

Market developments, evolving speculations EUR/USD/AUD

Mr. Crabs said:

Mod-tem my outlook is to buy the AUD, short the EUR as I mentioned in prior threads. This trend realized partially but the EUR has been holding up staunchly. The AUD on the other hand moved up much quicker than I anticipated.

This leads me to a new short-term idea that the EURUSD will pivot, the EUR will fracture dragging the AUD down with it in the short-term.

Click to expand...

Looking back I have to revise my expectations. The AUD fell while the EUR held up which means to me that when the EUR cracks the AUD will move up sharply yet again directly inverse to the EUR.

rsh01 said:

let google educate you in the english language....

definition of fracture: "the cracking or breaking of a hard object or material"

(nb: note no mention of drop sharply/significantly/'or drop/fall in any way whatsoever')

so lets replace object / material with 'level' ie price level - great, i can hang with that, but both levels you have mentioned so far are: 1300 & 1330 (changed v swiftly), & so far price HAS NOT broken these levels.

i will ignore the ad hominem comments.

what is intriguing though is in your reply you have mentioned a much more specific time frame - 'this hour'. congratulations. now all you need to do is stop backslapping yourself:



....when clearly you are just making sh1t up (including new meanings of words).

laters.

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Are you really going to deny gold made a sharp move to the downside?

Are you enjoying this? How pathetic. Be real. No one could possibly be that big of a **** in real life.

Are you proud of yourself?

rsh01 said:

let google educate you in the english language....

definition of fracture: "the cracking or breaking of a hard object or material"

(nb: note no mention of drop sharply/significantly/'or drop/fall in any way whatsoever')

so lets replace object / material with 'level' ie price level - great, i can hang with that, but both levels you have mentioned so far are: 1300 & 1330 (changed v swiftly), & so far price HAS NOT broken these levels.

....when clearly you are just making sh1t up (including new meanings of words).

laters.

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Because if wasting my time was your goal, you have succeeded. The price of gold cracked, as I predicted correctly. I deserve a pat on the back for making predictions with such a frequent rate of correctness. I deserve a pat on the back for being able to lead the market in the most profitable directions for those who operate their positions not based on greed but on effectiveness.

As for my predictions in price level. I did not change them. I did not state that the initial price cracks would bring the price to $1,330 or $1,300. What I did state was the price cracking being a sell signal. Also I did not change my mind, I stated I anticipated that gold would pullback around $1,300 and at least under $1,330 preferably. As under 1,300 I will build a buy position more aggressively than I would above it, and I would begin to build my buy position under $1,330.

Are you happy now? Hope the others that have strolled through this thread got something good from it. I'd prefer not to waste anyones time bantering back and forth to this grade A asshole.

Mr. Crabs said:

Because if wasting my time was your goal, you have succeeded. The price of gold cracked, as I predicted correctly. I deserve a pat on the back for making predictions with such a frequent rate of correctness. I deserve a pat on the back for being able to lead the market in the most profitable directions for those who operate their positions not based on greed but on effectiveness.

As for my predictions in price level. I did not change them. I did not state that the initial price cracks would bring the price to $1,330 or $1,300. What I did state was the price cracking being a sell signal. Also I did not change my mind, I stated I anticipated that gold would pullback around $1,300 and at least under $1,330 preferably. As under 1,300 I will build a buy position more aggressively than I would above it, and I would begin to build my buy position under $1,330.

Are you happy now? Hope the others that have strolled through this thread got something good from it. I'd prefer not to waste anyones time bantering back and forth to this grade A asshole.

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repeat: "i will ignore the ad hominem comments".

Mr. Crabs said:

The price of gold cracked

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your first paragraph is not worthy of a response.

but this is funny...what is it with you and 'breaking' type words? they make 0 sense, until you add more detail ie S/R levels etc.

vague, inconsistent & largely incomprehensible in your posts.....are you related to atilla?

(joke)

i cannot wait til gold shatters (up or down?: who knows) the current trend, & then i might buy [or sell] on something or other time frame.

g/l.

rsh01 said:

repeat: "i will ignore the ad hominem comments".



your first paragraph is not worthy of a response.

but this is funny...what is it with you and 'breaking' type words? they make 0 sense, until you add more detail ie S/R levels etc.

vague, inconsistent & largely incomprehensible in your posts.....are you related to atilla?

(joke)

i cannot wait til gold shatters (up or down?: who knows) the current trend, & then i might buy [or sell] on something or other time frame.

g/l.

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You mean you'll take a position before it ruptures support? You're a very aggressive trader rsh01. I would not enter tall until resistance had been thoroughly fragmented, nor enter little until support had been demolished. You must have great trade management skills.

tut

Shakone said:

You mean you'll take a position before it ruptures support? You're a very aggressive trader rsh01. I would not enter tall until resistance had been thoroughly fragmented, nor enter little until support had been demolished. You must have great trade management skills.

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with the utmost respect shak, and without giving away my secret holy (only 85 left) grail cuboid type thingy, penetration (PBs! caveat: on a certain t/f) and/or shattering signals @ random price levels works perfect - regardless your risk levels, moreso if you download my explosion indicator which has been tested thoroughly over the last cpl of weeks when spooz scalping 3 pips with rr 1:1 (limit orders only).

the 'guy fawkes' add on rolls out in a few days.

You have tutted me, so I will throw all toys out of the pram now and insult your intelligence levels. Also you are a time waster. 85 left?! I'm not interested. Not unless there is only one left. But if there is only one left, keep it on hold please, I'll pay a lot.

As for 3 pip stops, pah! I use 2 pip stops, sometimes 1 pip, so shut up. What instrument are you trading that you need 3 pip stops?! Something mexican probably. Amateur! On a good day I can get 400 pips, so you can work out for yourself that I'm an expert. Probably I have such good results because unlike you, I don't trade straight into a penetration level.

I am still interested in your guy fawkes add on though, so...let me know.

Cracking thread!

Shakone said:

You have tutted me, so I will throw all toys out of the pram now and insult your intelligence levels. Also you are a time waster. 85 left?! I'm not interested. Not unless there is only one left. But if there is only one left, keep it on hold please, I'll pay a lot.

As for 3 pip stops, pah! I use 2 pip stops, sometimes 1 pip, so shut up. What instrument are you trading that you need 3 pip stops?! Something mexican probably. Amateur! On a good day I can get 400 pips, so you can work out for yourself that I'm an expert. Probably I have such good results because unlike you, I don't trade straight into a penetration level.

I am still interested in your guy fawkes add on though, so...let me know.

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dont get me wrong, i respect your views, & pls remember prof shakone....i was one of your proteges back in college when you were rambling on & boring everyone with your fables about price, behaviour, & fissures. i got bullied (called a commie) for going to your class, but i stuck with it, you had an edge & the edge was 'broken'. it made no sense, & had no practical use, but it taught me (& the other guy - who was poss gay) about the universal 3 pip stop loss, regardless the market, regardless the rr, & even regardless the price (left field).

pfft (back at you), & how the master became the pupil.

(to digress i reckon they/hollywood shld do a 'dead poets society' type film about trading & leftfield tutors like yourself but starring baghdaddy.....played by baghdaddy, or burt reynolds).

see you at the village bonfire, will hand out part 1 dvd 'fireworks' re price entry & range breaking (edit: within a 6 pip range obv).

EUR cracked

Mr. Crabs said:

Looking back I have to revise my expectations. The AUD fell while the EUR held up which means to me that when the EUR cracks the AUD will move up sharply yet again directly inverse to the EUR.

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Ok then. EUR moved down sharply bringing up the USD right to the resistance level I mentioned before. It backed down but still looks strong. I think it will break out through that resistance after the EUR's completes a short lived rebound. At least this is what I anticipate. The AUD broke out with the CAD as well, so clearly I picked the right pairs for the job. I took some profits and will re-load more aggressively when the EUR moves to the upside because this sharp EUR move to this price should prove to be a very strong sell signal to big money.


Now that savvy deep pockets are deep in the money and the trend is here people will be stepping on each others heads to maintain large positions while taking profits (or create large positions via the early - birds profits). The highest profit-margin allowance will likely go to the parties with the most efficient sized positions. I speculate the ideal position would be somewhere around 30,000 lots or a 3 billion dollar cash position. I imagine the most efficient sized positions when it comes to creating the highest profit-margin %wise would be about a 1,000 lot position or $100,000,000 position although if operated on margin the risk will be quite high. a 30,000 lot position would have a significantly lower risk factor despite having a smaller return ratio if both positions are operated to perfection. Just a tip for those so focused on traditional means of predicting price fluctuations that their accuracy suffers. I'd rather be ahead than behind in this market.

Anyway, enjoy the trend, it's here. Any rebound on the EUR will likely be very short-lived, regardless of how strong the move upwards is.

Thanks.

darktone said:

Cracking thread!

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I'm glad everyone gets a kick out of my rejection of traditional trading knowledge and terminology.