I've recently been studying Michael Jenkins, Bradley Cowan, and others who are related to what you're sharing. I believe I've seen your posts on other boards too as I've been reading forums. I just wanted to say thank you for sharing your knowledge on this. I also believe there are too many coincidences to dismiss what's going on.
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Hi Maze1099,
Thank you - appreciated
It's all out there, its not perfect, but you can piece bits together - Cowan got accused of copying Baumings work, so he'll never get the support of the community, but some of his work is for me spot on, I personally found that 4D gave me the grounding to understanding the planets, but I've never used any of those methods apart from the WAR cycle he mentions - the planetary bits don't work consistently but PTCT! Wow, my covid Feb 2020 call came right out of that book, along with Aug 2015
Jenkins is just a forward thinking genius - again not everything works all the time, but occasionally, if you read Jenkins non-astro works, He has written like Gann and hidden veiled meanings to his methods, i.e. when talks of squaring the range or whatever, he means with the planets, all of them - not that it always works, as there's a lot of permutations you can do to square things up
Look at Bryce Gilmour too - gives a fairly good explanation on geometry and ratio's, that's where I learnt the square/cube work from
The basic trend stuff came from a combination of Robert Miner, Walter Bressert, Elliott Wave and John Carter
Yeah the coincidences are for me just too frequent, especially when you forward predict them and they arrive - Scientists are talking about living in a holographic simulation (matrix!), which I can understand, but its mind blowing
I can't remember when this happened, but there was a psychic who gave a reading decades ago that said inside the Pyramids, there is a secret code/writings that brings forward new discoveries, just very recently some researcher has discovered those writings / images - the best part is he's also discovered the images have been "hidden" in Da Vinci's Last supper painting! So Da Vinci, knew centuries ago!
To clarify to any readers you do not need to know about any of the above to profit from the markets - I'm just one of those people who likes to know how and why things do what they do
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Remember this entire thread is showing you workable things that happen in the markets - Its not trading advice, its EDUCATION and should you decide to try these methods for yourself, YOU are 100% responsible for your trading/Investing outcomes and responsible for your personal testing of methods - No responsibility can be held against THT for your mistakes, misinterpretation of methods or lack of trading/Investing skill - If in doubt, do not trade/Invest - You are trading/Investing at your OWN risk
Long term view of a UK stock
It's very clear to see the harmonics of the Gann Box working 11 years after its creation!
Long term view of a UK stock
It's very clear to see the harmonics of the Gann Box working 11 years after its creation!
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Just WAIT for absolute nailed on set-ups
This ones got away from me, I was going to write it up yesterday, but time and family got the better of me
This trade is currently LIVE and I'm trailing the stop - this is why you need to make a decision to have a target or trail - there is nothing wrong with banking a trade at a target and then trailing others - I often bag the weeks income asap and then like this one just let the other trades run a little
Daily chart:
As you can see the DAILY (Higher Time-Frame) chart was NOT in a buy go long trend position - although the 2RSI (cycle Indicator) was oversold and a possible bullish reversal was a potential, the trade was taken on the 60 min chart basis though, as these things often ping back to higher time-frame SMA's
The DAILY angle of movement is steep and won't be moving at that rate for much longer
Note the WEEKLY 2RSI is BULLISH, so that could mean a few weeks of BULLISH price action, that does NOT mean that the DAILY chart will not or can't correct, because it can
This ones got away from me, I was going to write it up yesterday, but time and family got the better of me
This trade is currently LIVE and I'm trailing the stop - this is why you need to make a decision to have a target or trail - there is nothing wrong with banking a trade at a target and then trailing others - I often bag the weeks income asap and then like this one just let the other trades run a little
- SMA's crossed over nicely (HOURLY chart)
- 2RSI <25%
- Nice narrow range bar pull back to SMA's early on in a possible trending section = Place an order
- Order was triggered on the next hourly bar
- Now you can either have a price target if you've researched typical price move of the stock on that time-frame (could be a multiple of ATR) or you can trail up a stop and let the market close out the position when the trend ends
- Notice that the LOW of each price bar did not come back anywhere near the entry price, this allows you to get to break-even fast, which I did on the CLOSE of the 3rd bar after entry (big green bar) - when this set-up works, it goes, so you should not have price fluctuations
Daily chart:
As you can see the DAILY (Higher Time-Frame) chart was NOT in a buy go long trend position - although the 2RSI (cycle Indicator) was oversold and a possible bullish reversal was a potential, the trade was taken on the 60 min chart basis though, as these things often ping back to higher time-frame SMA's
The DAILY angle of movement is steep and won't be moving at that rate for much longer
Note the WEEKLY 2RSI is BULLISH, so that could mean a few weeks of BULLISH price action, that does NOT mean that the DAILY chart will not or can't correct, because it can
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My personality is that to WIN - not at all costs, but If I can I WANT to be CATCHING the LOWS, as close to the low as possible
Here's another Gann Box retracement trade from an EXTENDED angle
Chart 1 Draw the RETRACEMENT RATIO levels of a nice swing period
Chart 2 Draw the Gann Box or if you include the 25%/50% & 75% retracement %'s in the retracement tool, you can simply extend a trend line from those % points - whatever suits you
Chart 3 Self Explanatory
2RSI (the cycle finder) <25%, hit the extended angle line, alarm goes off, we double check the trade and then decide how we are moving forward
You could choose to buy off the line, drop down a time-frame to buy, buy near the close of the day or the next day if a break of the HIGH of the set-up bar is exceeded
Here's the HOURLY chart to show you what these things often look like when hit - a PIN reversal bar right on the line
I can tell you, you do not need many of these per YEAR to make a serious profit
Remember in a random market, this just CAN'T happen
As I say all this Information is out there - I'm just showing you it in action
Here's another Gann Box retracement trade from an EXTENDED angle
Chart 1 Draw the RETRACEMENT RATIO levels of a nice swing period
Chart 2 Draw the Gann Box or if you include the 25%/50% & 75% retracement %'s in the retracement tool, you can simply extend a trend line from those % points - whatever suits you
Chart 3 Self Explanatory
2RSI (the cycle finder) <25%, hit the extended angle line, alarm goes off, we double check the trade and then decide how we are moving forward
You could choose to buy off the line, drop down a time-frame to buy, buy near the close of the day or the next day if a break of the HIGH of the set-up bar is exceeded
Here's the HOURLY chart to show you what these things often look like when hit - a PIN reversal bar right on the line
I can tell you, you do not need many of these per YEAR to make a serious profit
Remember in a random market, this just CAN'T happen
As I say all this Information is out there - I'm just showing you it in action
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Like Blue Peter, Here's one I made earlier!
This cuts right through the 61.8% Fib retracement level - It's a long way off and we do not have any IDEA it will comply - It's going to need some fast and furious (pun intended) price plunging to hit that level
But I go to the trouble of doing this on EVERY chart with a decent price swing, just in case - it takes about 3 mins max and once done its there until validated or Invalidated
When I flick through the portfolio I've created nightly, I see this and will automatically be looking for big plunging bars - If the don't come then I doubt the box and extended angles are active - If on the other hand we do get big plunging price bars, we become more alert to the bounce potential if price gets near to the levels - These boxes don't always work, which keeps us on our toes!
We know that the angle is definitely active previously as the double bottom bounced right off if BEFORE the box was even possible to draw!
See what I mean about price already knowing exactly where its heading? I just wish it could tell us in advance too!
Notice that as the Gann Box was built by the price swing - the 2 big advances hit FIB retracement levels of the gann box (Remember it was NOT built when those levels hit!) - This tells us that PRICE action is working out a GEOMETRIC Fibonacci growth section - we just do not know if that is continuing or not now though!
You can pre-build the Gann Box off the low and "FIT" the 1-2 price swing to retracement levels AND angles and do a "best match" - This requires a bit of LUCK as you have to constantly rejig the box size in price and time as price progresses - but you could have built the exact box PRIOR to price getting to the high with a bit of tweaking etc and when you do that - which means you then could short the high!
This cuts right through the 61.8% Fib retracement level - It's a long way off and we do not have any IDEA it will comply - It's going to need some fast and furious (pun intended) price plunging to hit that level
But I go to the trouble of doing this on EVERY chart with a decent price swing, just in case - it takes about 3 mins max and once done its there until validated or Invalidated
When I flick through the portfolio I've created nightly, I see this and will automatically be looking for big plunging bars - If the don't come then I doubt the box and extended angles are active - If on the other hand we do get big plunging price bars, we become more alert to the bounce potential if price gets near to the levels - These boxes don't always work, which keeps us on our toes!
We know that the angle is definitely active previously as the double bottom bounced right off if BEFORE the box was even possible to draw!
See what I mean about price already knowing exactly where its heading? I just wish it could tell us in advance too!
Notice that as the Gann Box was built by the price swing - the 2 big advances hit FIB retracement levels of the gann box (Remember it was NOT built when those levels hit!) - This tells us that PRICE action is working out a GEOMETRIC Fibonacci growth section - we just do not know if that is continuing or not now though!
You can pre-build the Gann Box off the low and "FIT" the 1-2 price swing to retracement levels AND angles and do a "best match" - This requires a bit of LUCK as you have to constantly rejig the box size in price and time as price progresses - but you could have built the exact box PRIOR to price getting to the high with a bit of tweaking etc and when you do that - which means you then could short the high!
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These extended angles are from the 25% levels of the Gann box - the Gold retracement levels are from the big long DECLINE and the pick retracement levels are from the recent rally off the low
As you can see the extended angle DOWN didn't stop the rally, price hit the 66% level (CUBE) with a slight overrun and then dropped
The extended angle UP did stop the decline right along with the 70.7%* retracement level (SQUARE) along with the cycle Indicator 2RSI <25%
This shows you WHY at times some things make sense and other times its not precise enough
Here's the 60 min chart to show you the bounce from "thin air"
This market is currently moving to a structure that incorporates the CUBE and the SQUARE - but most geometric structures move, grow and contract to ratios of the square, cube, fib etc - this is our problem as if we knew what structure was being built, we could forward predict its growth/decomposition pattern more accurately
* 70.7% is half of the square root of 2 (1.4142) - its referred in freemasonry as the "Sacred Cut" apparently - All I no is that its a level that often catches reversals in the markets
As you can see the extended angle DOWN didn't stop the rally, price hit the 66% level (CUBE) with a slight overrun and then dropped
The extended angle UP did stop the decline right along with the 70.7%* retracement level (SQUARE) along with the cycle Indicator 2RSI <25%
This shows you WHY at times some things make sense and other times its not precise enough
Here's the 60 min chart to show you the bounce from "thin air"
This market is currently moving to a structure that incorporates the CUBE and the SQUARE - but most geometric structures move, grow and contract to ratios of the square, cube, fib etc - this is our problem as if we knew what structure was being built, we could forward predict its growth/decomposition pattern more accurately
* 70.7% is half of the square root of 2 (1.4142) - its referred in freemasonry as the "Sacred Cut" apparently - All I no is that its a level that often catches reversals in the markets
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I'm taking a little bit of a break
The thing you should be seeing and thinking about is TIMING the markets - This is how you trade with confidence
The 2 methods shown do that - The 2RSI catches cyclic turns, although its not perfect and if you misuse it you get a lot of false signals, which is why its best to use with a defined TREND and/or TRADING RANGE (see weekly chart example below!)
and the Gann Box EXTENDED ANGLES both combine PRICE & TIME together (as do Gann Angles) to provide highly accurate points in price and time you can trade off - this is the essence of TIMING = Right Price & Time!
When I return - not sure how long it will be - We will look at CYCLES and how to Incorporate them into your analysis
PS - In the chart above - when price breaks out of that channel - Measure the width of the price action in the channel and then turn that measurement vertical (you can do this using a circle with the sideways price action as the RADIUS) then that is the TARGET over time for price to work towards in the years to come
The thing you should be seeing and thinking about is TIMING the markets - This is how you trade with confidence
The 2 methods shown do that - The 2RSI catches cyclic turns, although its not perfect and if you misuse it you get a lot of false signals, which is why its best to use with a defined TREND and/or TRADING RANGE (see weekly chart example below!)
and the Gann Box EXTENDED ANGLES both combine PRICE & TIME together (as do Gann Angles) to provide highly accurate points in price and time you can trade off - this is the essence of TIMING = Right Price & Time!
When I return - not sure how long it will be - We will look at CYCLES and how to Incorporate them into your analysis
PS - In the chart above - when price breaks out of that channel - Measure the width of the price action in the channel and then turn that measurement vertical (you can do this using a circle with the sideways price action as the RADIUS) then that is the TARGET over time for price to work towards in the years to come
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Short break LOL - Sods law, this one happened yesterday and its got a whole bunch of PSYCHOLOGICAL aspects to it
When I was placing the reorder, its perfectly natural to think "If this triggers and then stops out again........."
It's part of the game
- TREND in place
- Pulls back [price] - still above the 50 SMA
- 2RSI <25%
- Place the buy order 1 pip above the HIGH of the narrow range GREEN bar
- Place the stop 1 pip below the LOW of the lowest price point of the pullback (big RED bar)
- This is triggered within minutes
- Then it got stopped out as price exceeded the low
- So you reset the order
- SAME entry point as before BUT
- The stop goes 1 pip under the green bar touching the 50 SMA - thats the new LOW of the pullback
- You'd of had to put this buy order back on in the same hour as you were stopped out - so its important to use alarms and what not - This happened whilst I was making my lunch and away from the trading screen!
- Don't think, just replace the position with an order if hit - This HAPPENS as part of the game I'm afraid
- If the green bar that took out the stop and got us back in had been much larger, I'd of not put the trade order back on
- The position is 5R up (less the 1R hit = 4R)
When I was placing the reorder, its perfectly natural to think "If this triggers and then stops out again........."
It's part of the game
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This is a fast and quick look at cycles - If you want exactness, then you'll need to brush up on how Dewey and Hurst looked at cycles, I don't intend to repeat their work here
NOTHING works exactly 100% of the time in the markets - these too many factors that Influence price action and nothing is static forever - this is why cycles roll into view and then out of view
As traders we want to catch the nice turns in a market - some markets just don't give you reliable cycles to trade from with confidence
This is a stock on the LSE
As you can see there's a wide variance on the monthly chart - we might get lucky waiting 6.9 months for a low to come in, but that's too much of a gamble to work with/from
There's not really a sufficient amount of data to be able to pull any hard and fast cycles from here
However we find one Hurst cycle 54 MTH which looks good - the strategy here would be to watch the next 54 mth time slot as a declining/falling market down into the months around the cycle window date would have you sat up straight
Notice that these cycles aren't picking up the extreme swings and sometimes the cycle is "off" by a few months - this is the real world!
This is the WEEKLY time-frame of the same stock
Again the range of the low to lows is just too wide
So you then have to start testing low to lows of various swings
Now you can do this until you are blue in the face and force fit something or sometimes something shows up
My advice is if it doesn't jump out to you within minutes, move on
Remember we are looking for markets that make it EASY for us to see cycles and quickly from which we can place risk acceptable trades from
Here's another Hurst 40 WEEK cycle on the same market
Its OK but not brilliant - notice how the cycle tops and bottoms AREN'T uniform - this is what makes cycle work hard
We can see its all a bit messy, Doing a quick flick through your monthly time-frame charts, would have you pulling out the following 2 charts, due to the troughing cycle being somewhat more uniform
and this one
If you want to get fancy, then you could try to create a composite Index of the market - but its a time consuming process
This is the NAT GAS market - notice that this 4 year L-L cycle has been nearly perfect, apart from the time when a low came in as a high.....
Cycles do INVERT at times, but a rapidly moving market in the opposite direction to your expectation should be screaming out "INVERSION" to you - Now when a market INVERTS from say an expected low into a physical high - it ALWAYS crashes fast and hard, so you can easily SHORT the Inversion once it tops out etc
NOTHING works exactly 100% of the time in the markets - these too many factors that Influence price action and nothing is static forever - this is why cycles roll into view and then out of view
As traders we want to catch the nice turns in a market - some markets just don't give you reliable cycles to trade from with confidence
This is a stock on the LSE
As you can see there's a wide variance on the monthly chart - we might get lucky waiting 6.9 months for a low to come in, but that's too much of a gamble to work with/from
There's not really a sufficient amount of data to be able to pull any hard and fast cycles from here
However we find one Hurst cycle 54 MTH which looks good - the strategy here would be to watch the next 54 mth time slot as a declining/falling market down into the months around the cycle window date would have you sat up straight
Notice that these cycles aren't picking up the extreme swings and sometimes the cycle is "off" by a few months - this is the real world!
This is the WEEKLY time-frame of the same stock
Again the range of the low to lows is just too wide
So you then have to start testing low to lows of various swings
Now you can do this until you are blue in the face and force fit something or sometimes something shows up
My advice is if it doesn't jump out to you within minutes, move on
Remember we are looking for markets that make it EASY for us to see cycles and quickly from which we can place risk acceptable trades from
Here's another Hurst 40 WEEK cycle on the same market
Its OK but not brilliant - notice how the cycle tops and bottoms AREN'T uniform - this is what makes cycle work hard
We can see its all a bit messy, Doing a quick flick through your monthly time-frame charts, would have you pulling out the following 2 charts, due to the troughing cycle being somewhat more uniform
and this one
If you want to get fancy, then you could try to create a composite Index of the market - but its a time consuming process
This is the NAT GAS market - notice that this 4 year L-L cycle has been nearly perfect, apart from the time when a low came in as a high.....
Cycles do INVERT at times, but a rapidly moving market in the opposite direction to your expectation should be screaming out "INVERSION" to you - Now when a market INVERTS from say an expected low into a physical high - it ALWAYS crashes fast and hard, so you can easily SHORT the Inversion once it tops out etc
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Nothing surprises me in the markets - here's some "fuzzy logic" numerology appearing
Next week we see the 15th year anniversary since the March 2009 LOW
15 years is half or 180 degrees of Gann's 30 year cycle
To date the SP500 has risen 4444 points from the low of 666.79
The square root of 4444 is 66.65
The market could be poised for a "square out" as we are balancing on the range moved
Nothing to panic about, but it would be worth keep half an eye on price action next week
SP500 Index
Next week we see the 15th year anniversary since the March 2009 LOW
15 years is half or 180 degrees of Gann's 30 year cycle
To date the SP500 has risen 4444 points from the low of 666.79
The square root of 4444 is 66.65
The market could be poised for a "square out" as we are balancing on the range moved
Nothing to panic about, but it would be worth keep half an eye on price action next week
SP500 Index
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10 Year WARNING
Early on in this thread, I showed you a 16-19 year cycle chart on the US markets
That cycle will top out big style in the year 2034 - I know the month, but all you need to know is the year - This will start the next DOWN cycle, which will be fairly destructive to stocks
Obviously all these big long term cycles offer buying and shorting opportunities too within them
But here's the prediction - the US markets STOP DEAD during 2034 and for the next 16-19 years, we'll see 2/3 big bear markets along with the price high of 2034 most likely not being exceeded during that down cycle (this bit is not fixed)
I'll publish the Internals of the 2034+ Down cycle sometime in 2032 (Can't be bothered to do it before then) and YES I'll publish the month & year the down cycle BOTTOMS (Best time to get long for the next couple of decades)
Just wanted to officially publish on here the 2034 topping cycle date
Early on in this thread, I showed you a 16-19 year cycle chart on the US markets
That cycle will top out big style in the year 2034 - I know the month, but all you need to know is the year - This will start the next DOWN cycle, which will be fairly destructive to stocks
Obviously all these big long term cycles offer buying and shorting opportunities too within them
But here's the prediction - the US markets STOP DEAD during 2034 and for the next 16-19 years, we'll see 2/3 big bear markets along with the price high of 2034 most likely not being exceeded during that down cycle (this bit is not fixed)
I'll publish the Internals of the 2034+ Down cycle sometime in 2032 (Can't be bothered to do it before then) and YES I'll publish the month & year the down cycle BOTTOMS (Best time to get long for the next couple of decades)
Just wanted to officially publish on here the 2034 topping cycle date
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We all KNOW to make money (unless selling options) you HAVE to go in the direction of price swings, I've covered TREND and shown you some "fuzzy logic" gann box methods to catch retracements - these don't always work out and are a RISKIER trade to make/take
So to continue with the theme of TREND trading, we have the following:
These are EXACTLY the same as our old friend the Trend Trade with 2RSI <25% - BUT, as you can SEE 2RSI FAILS to make it back to the <25% buy zone
This is what happens in very strong trending sections - Don't let it put you off buying the trend, you just buy the BREAKOUT of the prior bar HIGH and ride the trend up
(You could try your luck on the hourly time-frame for a TREND TRADE with 2RSI <25% if you like - this also gets you in at a better share holding as you'd buy on the hourly at a price lower than the prior bars high etc - This is advanced stuff, for the time being let's keep it simple and assume prior bar high entry etc)
The KEY to this is the continual advancement of price - As soon as you get price moving SIDEWAYS for more than a couple of days, the trade becomes a bit more riskier - as you can see from the charts below, once all that ENERGY runs out, the game changes
Take note of the ANGLE of the moving averages when they are dragged up behind price
So to continue with the theme of TREND trading, we have the following:
These are EXACTLY the same as our old friend the Trend Trade with 2RSI <25% - BUT, as you can SEE 2RSI FAILS to make it back to the <25% buy zone
This is what happens in very strong trending sections - Don't let it put you off buying the trend, you just buy the BREAKOUT of the prior bar HIGH and ride the trend up
(You could try your luck on the hourly time-frame for a TREND TRADE with 2RSI <25% if you like - this also gets you in at a better share holding as you'd buy on the hourly at a price lower than the prior bars high etc - This is advanced stuff, for the time being let's keep it simple and assume prior bar high entry etc)
The KEY to this is the continual advancement of price - As soon as you get price moving SIDEWAYS for more than a couple of days, the trade becomes a bit more riskier - as you can see from the charts below, once all that ENERGY runs out, the game changes
Take note of the ANGLE of the moving averages when they are dragged up behind price
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EVERY WEEK I run the following SCAN on my trading software:
If you look at this WEEKLY chart for DECEMBER 2022
Perfect UPTREND, angles of the SMA's are rising steeply (= BIG energy going into the market), pullback with 2RSI <25% AND NARROW RANGE weekly price bar right on the 10 wk SMA = ULTRA HIGH PROBABILITY of a reversal
Here's the DAILY chart of that time period to show you the position of the market on a DAILY basis - you could have traded this on the DAILY chart to buy MORE position/stock - however, the WEEKLY trade produced a decent R multiple
Found support right on the 50 SMA with a DAILY 2RSI <25%
This MEANS, you could have (I did) bought the DAILY bar, rather than the weekly bar - REMEMBER when we are RIGHT, the market does as we expect and it does NOT trade lower than our stop position - There's no right or wrong with this, I'm aggressive, if you are more cautious then just buy the WEEKLY bar breakout etc
Just because the MA's turn DOWN, does NOT mean the market is continuing lower, as you can see, it does this when it corrects
As the trade progresses, its VERY IMPORTANT to TRAIL UP a STOP - As you can see this market rallied and then burned - we do NOT buy & hold!
Here's the MATHS of the trade gross without costs: - I'm using the WEEKLY set-up bar, the NEXT trading bar was Christmas week and produced an inside bar - If it were me I'd trade the Inside bar break-out, but lets assume you are cautious and use the larger bar option)
Entry = £20.60 (few pence above the high of the set-up bar - giving a few pence additional "wiggle" room)
Stop = £19.96 (again allows a couple pence "wiggle" room)
RISK = £0.64 pence (64p)
If your trading account is £25k and you just risk 1% (£250) then you can buy
Shares/Position = 390 shares @ £20.60 = outlay of £8,034
Trail a stop up and lets say you got out as I did at £24 exactly
£24 x 390 shares = £9,360
£9360 - £8034 = £1,326 Gross
or 5R gross return (5%) on your risk of 1% -you decide if costs go in the % risked or outside of it (personal choice)
Just WAIT for picture perfect trades to appear and you will be rewarded
Imagine this and run the maths - You found just 10 trades like this per year, EVERY year, 70% of them WON @ 4R (28), 30% lost at 1R (3R) = GROSS 25R
If 1R = 1% then that's 25% gross per year
The hard part is waiting, which most people can't do - 95% of professional fund managers don't make anywhere close to 25% per annum either
Also please note that you need to monitor the markets produced by the scan for the next few weeks, as you might find that the scan finds markets with large range bars, that then over the next few weeks FAIL to go <25% but form a narrow range bar in perfect order SMA's - these trades are also highly valid, even though the 2RSI failed to be <25% - SEE January 2021 as an example on the weekly chart above in this post as a prime example
To remove this possibility, I just spend 30 mins of a weekend going through EVERY weekly chart of my trading universe, so that I can EYEBALL the chart, rather than leaving a computer to pull out exactness
I've shown you MACD in the chart window too - so that you can SEE how it interacts - you don't need it, but sometimes its nice to see it confirming the bull position etc - Remember all these Indicators measure is the momentum of the market/price action expressed in differing mathematical ways, sometimes its a help and we can exploit that info, other times its useless
*I don't want to encourage people to be reckless with risk, because it could come back to bite you on the backside, however, there are times (like this example) when you can load up with a position
- PERFECT ORDER MOVING AVERAGES
- PULL BACK
- 2RSI <25%
If you look at this WEEKLY chart for DECEMBER 2022
Perfect UPTREND, angles of the SMA's are rising steeply (= BIG energy going into the market), pullback with 2RSI <25% AND NARROW RANGE weekly price bar right on the 10 wk SMA = ULTRA HIGH PROBABILITY of a reversal
Here's the DAILY chart of that time period to show you the position of the market on a DAILY basis - you could have traded this on the DAILY chart to buy MORE position/stock - however, the WEEKLY trade produced a decent R multiple
Found support right on the 50 SMA with a DAILY 2RSI <25%
This MEANS, you could have (I did) bought the DAILY bar, rather than the weekly bar - REMEMBER when we are RIGHT, the market does as we expect and it does NOT trade lower than our stop position - There's no right or wrong with this, I'm aggressive, if you are more cautious then just buy the WEEKLY bar breakout etc
Just because the MA's turn DOWN, does NOT mean the market is continuing lower, as you can see, it does this when it corrects
As the trade progresses, its VERY IMPORTANT to TRAIL UP a STOP - As you can see this market rallied and then burned - we do NOT buy & hold!
Here's the MATHS of the trade gross without costs: - I'm using the WEEKLY set-up bar, the NEXT trading bar was Christmas week and produced an inside bar - If it were me I'd trade the Inside bar break-out, but lets assume you are cautious and use the larger bar option)
Entry = £20.60 (few pence above the high of the set-up bar - giving a few pence additional "wiggle" room)
Stop = £19.96 (again allows a couple pence "wiggle" room)
RISK = £0.64 pence (64p)
If your trading account is £25k and you just risk 1% (£250) then you can buy
Shares/Position = 390 shares @ £20.60 = outlay of £8,034
Trail a stop up and lets say you got out as I did at £24 exactly
£24 x 390 shares = £9,360
£9360 - £8034 = £1,326 Gross
or 5R gross return (5%) on your risk of 1% -you decide if costs go in the % risked or outside of it (personal choice)
Just WAIT for picture perfect trades to appear and you will be rewarded
Imagine this and run the maths - You found just 10 trades like this per year, EVERY year, 70% of them WON @ 4R (28), 30% lost at 1R (3R) = GROSS 25R
If 1R = 1% then that's 25% gross per year
The hard part is waiting, which most people can't do - 95% of professional fund managers don't make anywhere close to 25% per annum either
Also please note that you need to monitor the markets produced by the scan for the next few weeks, as you might find that the scan finds markets with large range bars, that then over the next few weeks FAIL to go <25% but form a narrow range bar in perfect order SMA's - these trades are also highly valid, even though the 2RSI failed to be <25% - SEE January 2021 as an example on the weekly chart above in this post as a prime example
To remove this possibility, I just spend 30 mins of a weekend going through EVERY weekly chart of my trading universe, so that I can EYEBALL the chart, rather than leaving a computer to pull out exactness
I've shown you MACD in the chart window too - so that you can SEE how it interacts - you don't need it, but sometimes its nice to see it confirming the bull position etc - Remember all these Indicators measure is the momentum of the market/price action expressed in differing mathematical ways, sometimes its a help and we can exploit that info, other times its useless
*I don't want to encourage people to be reckless with risk, because it could come back to bite you on the backside, however, there are times (like this example) when you can load up with a position
THT
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I don't usually do much Youtube ing for trades, but this video popped into my feed and it just covers a HUGE amount of information for making it, in this game, including John's famous SQUEEZE Indicator
Notice the bits around trend and perfect order moving averages
Back around 2010 ish, I met John at both the Las Vegas & London traders expo's, at the London Expo, he remembered me and signed my copy of his book - I went to his seminar/talk 15 minutes early to grab a seat, go to the lav and grab a coffee, John was setting up his presentation and I asked him if he wanted a coffee as I was getting myself one, he said yes, so when I took his coffee over to him, he chatted to me, after a few pleasantries he asked me how my trading was doing? "Hit & Miss - I'm trying to work out what works and what doesn't" I said - "We've all gone through that" John replied
As he was closing in on the start of his presentation, he quickly said........
"Moving averages, in perfect order = TREND / wait for a pullback to that trend WITHOUT the moving averages disturbing the perfect order, ENTER when price resumes the trend direction and you will make money, the ideal set-up is a short pull back then off, but often you'll get price consolidating but still confirming the trend, wait for it [price] to breakout out of the consolidation to resume the trend"
He then basically covered the "emotional" side in a minute that he talks about in the video - "Just play the set-up and the money will take care of itself, the loses are just part of the game, have the patience to WAIT for the PERFECT set-ups to appear and if you like you can trade a higher % of risk to normal"
The SQUEEZE Indicator is Bollinger Bands (BB's) setting 20 and 2 std deviations + Keltner Channels (KC's) 20 and 1.5 std deviations with a momentum indicator to register the above/below 0 value which has been mathematically linear regressed into a histogram - During periods of quiet in price, the BB's will move INSIDE of the KC's and then when price surges start the BB's pop out of the KC's = trade point, then if momentum is above 0 go long, below 0 go short etc
Notice the bits around trend and perfect order moving averages
Back around 2010 ish, I met John at both the Las Vegas & London traders expo's, at the London Expo, he remembered me and signed my copy of his book - I went to his seminar/talk 15 minutes early to grab a seat, go to the lav and grab a coffee, John was setting up his presentation and I asked him if he wanted a coffee as I was getting myself one, he said yes, so when I took his coffee over to him, he chatted to me, after a few pleasantries he asked me how my trading was doing? "Hit & Miss - I'm trying to work out what works and what doesn't" I said - "We've all gone through that" John replied
As he was closing in on the start of his presentation, he quickly said........
"Moving averages, in perfect order = TREND / wait for a pullback to that trend WITHOUT the moving averages disturbing the perfect order, ENTER when price resumes the trend direction and you will make money, the ideal set-up is a short pull back then off, but often you'll get price consolidating but still confirming the trend, wait for it [price] to breakout out of the consolidation to resume the trend"
He then basically covered the "emotional" side in a minute that he talks about in the video - "Just play the set-up and the money will take care of itself, the loses are just part of the game, have the patience to WAIT for the PERFECT set-ups to appear and if you like you can trade a higher % of risk to normal"
The SQUEEZE Indicator is Bollinger Bands (BB's) setting 20 and 2 std deviations + Keltner Channels (KC's) 20 and 1.5 std deviations with a momentum indicator to register the above/below 0 value which has been mathematically linear regressed into a histogram - During periods of quiet in price, the BB's will move INSIDE of the KC's and then when price surges start the BB's pop out of the KC's = trade point, then if momentum is above 0 go long, below 0 go short etc
THT
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Lets look at something slightly different - No Indicators (If any Indicators are shown, ignore them as its a faff for me to keep adding and removing them) - TRUST ME, you do not need any Indicators for this method
It's trend following in nature and catches turns early, remember a series of rising lows and rising highs = UPTREND and a series of lower lows and lower highs = DOWNTREND
We make money when we are RIGHT on the direction of price
This method is stupidly simply, its also how Gann and Livermore traded too! so it can't be too shabby! and you will notice that at times it follows the principles of the TREND trades I've already published
I just wanted to show you how you can use technical analysis to be profitable, identify trends and use mechanical methods to trade them first before getting to this part
Let me Introduce you to the very simple 1 2 3 method:
RULES:
Further reading of the 123 method can be found by researching "The Ross Hook" method which is extremely similar and the 2 can often be thought of as the same thing
Also note how this simple method would have got you more trades and profits than trading the TREND = 2RSI method - as not every pullback in price results in the 2RSI going <25%
With Swing File / ZigZag Indicator to show pivots:
Without swing file / ZigZag Indicator:
Think about GAPS - and orders and how this can impact adversely for you - I prefer ALARMS and then I can buy at the market which puts me in control
Also go back up through the charts I've posted and eyeball these 123's and RH's to compare because they give you REALITY of what has happened recently
PS The RH ONLY exists in a TRENDING section
It's trend following in nature and catches turns early, remember a series of rising lows and rising highs = UPTREND and a series of lower lows and lower highs = DOWNTREND
We make money when we are RIGHT on the direction of price
This method is stupidly simply, its also how Gann and Livermore traded too! so it can't be too shabby! and you will notice that at times it follows the principles of the TREND trades I've already published
I just wanted to show you how you can use technical analysis to be profitable, identify trends and use mechanical methods to trade them first before getting to this part
Let me Introduce you to the very simple 1 2 3 method:
RULES:
- Buy at the breakout of pivot #2
- Stop go's just past pivot #3
- Target is subjective to YOU - lets just go with target = length of swing 1-2, projected from pivot #2 (so basically 1R)
- The RH pivot points are essentially pivots #2 & #3 - so the same rules apply for buying and stop placement
Further reading of the 123 method can be found by researching "The Ross Hook" method which is extremely similar and the 2 can often be thought of as the same thing
Also note how this simple method would have got you more trades and profits than trading the TREND = 2RSI method - as not every pullback in price results in the 2RSI going <25%
With Swing File / ZigZag Indicator to show pivots:
Without swing file / ZigZag Indicator:
Think about GAPS - and orders and how this can impact adversely for you - I prefer ALARMS and then I can buy at the market which puts me in control
Also go back up through the charts I've posted and eyeball these 123's and RH's to compare because they give you REALITY of what has happened recently
PS The RH ONLY exists in a TRENDING section
Last edited:
THT
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I prefer to have a zigzag swing file shown on the chart, as it helps [me] to see chart patterns and the like
This is BITCOIN
Some helpful hints on the charts and when using the 2RSI Indicator can help
In this next example you'd of had marked on the chart and alarms set for a SHOTY 123 set up [not shown] where the #2, #3/A & #B are - as soon as the market triggers long and its confirmed, those alternative labelling are removed from the chart, so that you only have the most pertinent information listed
Future posts I'll show you absolutely brilliant entries and profits - the whole point of this is not to track every movement of the market, but to ONLY trade the OPTIMAL parts of the market as most of the markets movements aren't worth trading, but some are
In the chart directly above this text - look at late NOV 2023, ignore the Indicator
The moving averages were in perfect order UPTREND + we had multiple 123's that failed to trigger, then we had a INSIDE 123, then whoosh upwards - that was a 6R trade and a no brainer long trade on the breakout of the #2 [not shown] swing high
The FEB 2024 trade was a lot more than 6R - you do not need many of these a year to make a decent amount and be a top trader - all from a stupidly simple method!
So rather than chasing everything I've shown you in this thread all the time, you can become VERY selective and only trade picture perfect trading opportunities or if you want to keep yourself on your toes then you can chase things and the losses are easily offset by the big wins
Going forward we'll look for those markets setting up to be big winners, so you can see the parameters in action
This is BITCOIN
Some helpful hints on the charts and when using the 2RSI Indicator can help
In this next example you'd of had marked on the chart and alarms set for a SHOTY 123 set up [not shown] where the #2, #3/A & #B are - as soon as the market triggers long and its confirmed, those alternative labelling are removed from the chart, so that you only have the most pertinent information listed
Future posts I'll show you absolutely brilliant entries and profits - the whole point of this is not to track every movement of the market, but to ONLY trade the OPTIMAL parts of the market as most of the markets movements aren't worth trading, but some are
In the chart directly above this text - look at late NOV 2023, ignore the Indicator
The moving averages were in perfect order UPTREND + we had multiple 123's that failed to trigger, then we had a INSIDE 123, then whoosh upwards - that was a 6R trade and a no brainer long trade on the breakout of the #2 [not shown] swing high
The FEB 2024 trade was a lot more than 6R - you do not need many of these a year to make a decent amount and be a top trader - all from a stupidly simple method!
So rather than chasing everything I've shown you in this thread all the time, you can become VERY selective and only trade picture perfect trading opportunities or if you want to keep yourself on your toes then you can chase things and the losses are easily offset by the big wins
Going forward we'll look for those markets setting up to be big winners, so you can see the parameters in action
THT
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Cycles now
Previously I've posted about soft commodities and especially the COT reports showing the position of the COMMERCIALS - you can make a fortune by just watching these cycles along with the COT report and having a simple trend following strategy
Just spend 3 minutes studying the chart - See any cycles?
These cycles were written about by Bradley F Cowan back in the late 1990's - although he spectacularly got the 2001 assumption (HIGH) wrong, the cycle is still THERE - the cycle HAPPENED, it just happened to be a LOW instead of a HIGH (it INVERTED)
Now (I'll reveal all below) the cycle is NOT static, its approx 30 yrs LOW to LOW - the Intervals are 50% of the cycle, so for approx 100 years there's been a UP/DOWN sequence of approx 15 years, which is impossible to argue with (apart from the 2001 Inversion!)
So the 30 year cycle is the URANUS cycle (TRINE 360/3 = 120 degrees = 28 years) so the RED lines are actually 60 degree divisions of the URANUS cycle (14 years approx) - a pretty compelling cycle eh, with VERY CLEAR Influence from a planet!
the 84 year cycle is the URANUS cycle in FULL (1/12th = 7 years which is 30 degrees (360/12 = 30))
(The other points on the chart are other planets/planetary combo's)
This is WHY when you try to apply static cycles of whatever timescale, some work and some don't - the PLANETS circle (cycle) the sun in a NON circular motion (elliptical) and due to that elliptical motion sometimes the SPEED of the planet(s) are slower or faster, which is why you might get a 14 year cycle followed by a 16 year cycle 2nd half of the cycle etc (timings are examples only - not accurate)
"IF" the market you are watching is working to the planets then you'll not get many or any static cycles or enough static cycles to use consistently with accuracy
Now you might be like me, when I first came across seeing this - Planets affecting prices, that's crazy, its crazy right? Well it is, but if there's a constant correlation YOU'D be crazy not to consider it as well as applying it!
If you think the news or economics drive things that chart above challenges your beliefs
To save you the work, 2015/16 was a LOW (as expected, so the expectation for 2029 is................................................................................................
Yep a HIGH - which means there should be some sort of "event" that causes prices to spike
I've been expecting WAR in the mid 2020's which I've previously spoken about in this thread - that would be a valid event, but there could also be some form of "climate" event too, in any event, we should get a spike high around the late 2020's which then tops out and falls/collapses in the years following etc etc etc
Previously I've posted about soft commodities and especially the COT reports showing the position of the COMMERCIALS - you can make a fortune by just watching these cycles along with the COT report and having a simple trend following strategy
Just spend 3 minutes studying the chart - See any cycles?
These cycles were written about by Bradley F Cowan back in the late 1990's - although he spectacularly got the 2001 assumption (HIGH) wrong, the cycle is still THERE - the cycle HAPPENED, it just happened to be a LOW instead of a HIGH (it INVERTED)
Now (I'll reveal all below) the cycle is NOT static, its approx 30 yrs LOW to LOW - the Intervals are 50% of the cycle, so for approx 100 years there's been a UP/DOWN sequence of approx 15 years, which is impossible to argue with (apart from the 2001 Inversion!)
So the 30 year cycle is the URANUS cycle (TRINE 360/3 = 120 degrees = 28 years) so the RED lines are actually 60 degree divisions of the URANUS cycle (14 years approx) - a pretty compelling cycle eh, with VERY CLEAR Influence from a planet!
the 84 year cycle is the URANUS cycle in FULL (1/12th = 7 years which is 30 degrees (360/12 = 30))
(The other points on the chart are other planets/planetary combo's)
This is WHY when you try to apply static cycles of whatever timescale, some work and some don't - the PLANETS circle (cycle) the sun in a NON circular motion (elliptical) and due to that elliptical motion sometimes the SPEED of the planet(s) are slower or faster, which is why you might get a 14 year cycle followed by a 16 year cycle 2nd half of the cycle etc (timings are examples only - not accurate)
"IF" the market you are watching is working to the planets then you'll not get many or any static cycles or enough static cycles to use consistently with accuracy
Now you might be like me, when I first came across seeing this - Planets affecting prices, that's crazy, its crazy right? Well it is, but if there's a constant correlation YOU'D be crazy not to consider it as well as applying it!
If you think the news or economics drive things that chart above challenges your beliefs
To save you the work, 2015/16 was a LOW (as expected, so the expectation for 2029 is................................................................................................
Yep a HIGH - which means there should be some sort of "event" that causes prices to spike
I've been expecting WAR in the mid 2020's which I've previously spoken about in this thread - that would be a valid event, but there could also be some form of "climate" event too, in any event, we should get a spike high around the late 2020's which then tops out and falls/collapses in the years following etc etc etc
THT
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Back to trades
This is an old one from the other week - but shows a couple of things
This is an old one from the other week - but shows a couple of things
- I made a trading mistake in trading trade #1 - The range of risk for the entry was really too wide - but luckily it paid off
- I'll remember the mistake for a few months and then forget it and then repeat it! We're only human after all
- Look at the RSI's for the trades - the RSI's made new LOWS, yet trade #2 swing low didn't - this is a DISCREPENCY and is a very high probability of reversing to the upside (which it did)
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