Within a trading strategy increasing lots based on max consecutive wins.losses

[SuperDriveGuy]

Hi All,
I was just wondering if anyone has experimented with increasing/decreasing the contracts/lots based on the max consecutive wins/losses, everything else being the same in the strategy? and if yes, then what was their analysis?

Strategy A
Max consecutive winners is 7
Max consecutive losers is 3

Example
(situation 1) we are currently on our 3rd consecutive loser
(situation 2) we are currently on our 7th consecutive winner



Do we...
(situation 1) increase our lots/contracts as there is a high probability that the next trade will be a winner?

(situation 2) decrease our lots/contract size as we know there is a high probability of the next trade going to be a loser.

Again, please remember I am discussing everything else being the same for the strategy and have already considered that past results may not reflect the future and that the backtesting data quality can be variable depending on tested period and also that the strategy has been forward tested and max winners/losers scenario is representative.

Appreciate your thoughts, as this may be the edge some are looking for, including me

Regards

 

[amnonco]

Hi All,

Again, please remember I am discussing everything else being the same for the strategy and have already considered that past results may not reflect the future and that the backtesting data quality can be variable depending on tested period and also that the strategy has been forward tested and max winners/losers scenario is representative.

Appreciate your thoughts, as this may be the edge some are looking for, including me

Regards

IMHO, this just answers it.
statistically speaking, your edge is your expectancy, you can lose gazillion (a real number) time in a row in this still has nothing to do with future performance, that is, if your strategy is valid and you backtested it properly.

for me the only parameter deciding size is equity. trying to predict the future is futile.
trade the now. (any other known cliches anyone?)

seriously, position size must depend on equity, in one way or another.
BTW, if you're a discretionary trader, than position sizing can and should be managed according to winners/loser - as a take on being in sync with the market...