Why Top Retail traders V Commercial Traders

[Forexmospherian]

Hi Members

I thinks its time to make all the new traders to the Retail Forex Industry realise that they should not take much notice of the Commercial world - ie The Banks, Hedge Funds, Commercial Institutions, Brokers , commercial traders and of course the tutors and gurus who try and lead us all down the wrong path ;-)

The Retail Forex trading world is "chalk and cheese" compared to the Commercial Traders world - it really is another ball game.

You - as a retail forex trader - have many advantages - and of course disadvantages over them but as traders - once you have done the years of study and training and have gathered experience - then you can just leave the commercial traders "for dead"

On this thread I will be showing you examples of what's possible.

Please don't think any trader can do this type of trading - because they can't - but I will start off with a guy who's now got 7 yrs experience in Forex trading and loves testing his abilities by increase small accounts into larger ones.

He obviously uses risk - but he knows what he is doing as shown by what he achieved - ie Over 31 trading days he put his small live account up 22000+ %

I will just repeat that and then go through some of the stats etc on another comment

Over 31 trading days he put his small live account up 22000+ %


Attached some stats

Looking forward to your views and will also be showing other examples and commenting on the ways you might achieve similar

Regards

Forexmospherian

 

[Forexmospherian]

OK - This first example as been achieved in approx 31 days - starting in November 2013 - up to December 19th 2013

During that time the trader as done 123 trades on 5 main currency pairs - with his favourite being the AU - then the UJ followed by the GU / EU and approx 10 or 11 trades on the GJ

His success rate on the 123 trades is certainly above average at 83% - and during that time he had 34 losses - with most of them being higher than his average wins ( that's bad )

In fact his worst losing trade was larger than his best winning ( really bad)

His average daily % increase on his capital was 726 % - better repeat that - 726% average per day - for 31 days - ( OK he's good - but his risk was only his capital - $7 - yes seven dollars ;-)

I am going to go through all his trades and sift out his advantages and disadvantages etc ( I used to be an accountant ) and then we can see how these compare to other traders we will feature.

They will all be live Retail traders - none of them billionaires or using half a million pound supercomputers - but they are still good enough to get my attention above any Jessie or PTJ - ie these guys agenda's are different to all the commercial world's - they are actually on your side ;-)

 

[Forexmospherian]

I have attached a further breakdown of this traders 22500% increase in 31 days - trading forex pairs.

Believe it or not - there are lots of areas he can improve on - - especially his GJ trading - 71% success rate on his 7 days here - but he lost the most money on the "beast" - ie $291 - and had his best results mainly selling the AU 26 times ;-)

He's no scalper - a intraday multi trade trend follower - so if that's the case - this result should easily be able to be improved on ;-)

His first 8 trades were on mini lots - and by his tenth trade he had taken his small account up by over 1200% ( MM we must get you beating that ;-) )

He went 16 trades before his first loss - ie $4 and within 50 trades he had had 8 losses - with 4 losses in a row - losing him $170 ( 4 bad in a row in one day - and still 22000% increase in 31 days ;-)

His broker was Paxforex - and I notice the smallest deposit normally is $10 - how did he start on $7 ?

Interesting stats - 1363 pips in 31 days so average 44 pips a day - we can do better than that - surely ;-)

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

OK - Retail trader number 2

I have attached some stats on this guy over approx 2 years - but only 128 days of trading.

Approx 6000 pips - but nearly $180k of profit and he has withdrawn £120k

Account increase in the period 1782% but off a larger start balance - that's really over only 128 trading day

Notice his average daily increase in approx 13% per day - impressive on larger numbers

Any comments so far ? ;-)

 

[Billy Gates]

Very nice indeed. Its all possible.

You haven't said much about the difference between retain/ commercial traders yet.


Come on get to the nitty gritty.

 

[NVP]

my only comment to date is that if you can smash the % win ratio up above 80%+ and use the power of compounding then anything is possible ......the rest that I see here is sloppy trading as you are also saying

go on
N

 

[Forexmospherian]

Very nice indeed. Its all possible.

You haven't said much about the difference between retain/ commercial traders yet.


Come on get to the nitty gritty.

Hi Billy ;-)

I suppose the real "nitty gritty" is fairly simple.

The more you respect the commercial forex trading world, the more you believe all how you should trade, the more you think Bank traders are or should be your "mentors" etc etc - the more you are being mislead

Trust no one - do your own study and research - but just don't think you can take them on and beat them at their own game in just a few months or years.

I have never personally worked in the commercial finance world although I have worked in senior positions for large International conglomerates.

You always have to do a SWOT analysis of yourself and what you are up against ( Strengths - Weaknesses - Opportunities - Threats ).

In the unregulated Forex markets - the largest money market in the world, the real retail sector of just independent traders makes up only a few percent of the whole "cake" - in fact added with small commercials etc its somewhere between 10 -14%.

For Deutsche Bank - one of the largest players - with over 15 - 20% of the total market - they can if they wish just "out trump" a million plus independent retailers who might be all buying or or all selling a currency pair - they have that much power ( or money;-))

For them and other large players to win and make money - other traders organisations have to lose. Retail traders are just easy soft targets - ( ie we could be compared to being just baby deer in the jungle - or small fish in the Ocean)

We can survive - and approximately 65-80% of all independent retail traders do every week and month. But long term only 5 -10% stay profitable and make good returns on a yearly ongoing basis - meaning somewhere between 65 and 80% of all retail forex traders eventually give up and no longer trade ( an exceptionally high "churn" rate for brokers - but with a global possibility of over 4 trillion adults to persuade to have a go - I don't think they are that bothered! )

Commercial traders are normally 24 - 40 yr old and have all had a formal education and would have qualifications that may take 2 -5 yrs to obtain. Retail traders - can be anyone really - start say on the 2nd of the month - and then within 3 months think they will have cracked it - and within a couple of years - be millionaires ;-)

Commercial traders are dealing with exceptionally large amounts of funds - and their main objective is to increase it - with as little risk as possible. Its not quite like the bored housewife who has $3k to play with - and if the worst happens and she loses it all - its not really a major incident. However if a Bank loses half a billion on a few bad trades - its major - and many heads will role and there could even be criminal implications if the traders involved have not kept to the Banks strict rules etc.

As a experienced retail forex trader - if you are able to trade on capital of $50 - 100K you should even with just risking 1% of your capital on stakes be looking at achieving 10 - 30% returns - per month on going - rather the listening to the industries averages of 3 - 7%..

If you are not able to achieve over 20% per month on a $2 or $5k live account ongoing - then you are not ready for the next stage - and whatever strategies, methods and money management you have - look at changing or improving it - so that you can stay in the "game" and continue on your "trading journey"

GL

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

my only comment to date is that if you can smash the % win ratio up above 80%+ and use the power of compounding then anything is possible ......the rest that I see here is sloppy trading as you are also saying

go on
N

Hi N

I have attached another traders stats - this guy as a 91% success win ratio on nearly 400 trades - yes impressive ...... BUT...

He lets himself down with having massive wide stops - or none at all I reckon - BAD

So he gets loads of small wins - and then one bad trade can wipe out 5 - 20 good trades depending when he bails ;-((

Shows he does not really understand PA - as he is under the belief if he has a few hundred pips of "leeway" to play with - surely it should go 20 - 50 pips his trade direction first .

He will be for a shock one day - there are still traders today in sells under 1.2700 on the EU and even buyers still in the EU at 1.4200+ waiting for price to come back their way. Totally inefficient - and not the way to carry on in my opinion

i am sure you know all these different ways to try and trade profitable for me you do need high wins ratios - over 75% + - stops as tight as you can get away with to get in a winning trade - multi trades with pyramiding and peeling - and no fortune telling - ie trying to guess next 3 months etc

i just cannot imagine placing $100 a pip on a trade after say a $3 -5k win - but willing for it to go $10 -15k the wrong way before it gets to my target - can you ??

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

Here's one you will like NVP - over 85% win ratio on approx 2000 live trades - attached below

He's intraday short term trading on the EU - with average trades approx 34 minutes and then holding UJ trades longer - approx 4 hrs or so.

He's earned good money on relatively a low number of pips - approx 1600 pips - ie a month for some traders and 3 months for many - and earned approx nearly 3000% increase on his EU capital.

I will see if I can find out what percentage of Capital hes been using on his stakes - I would allow him more whilst under a few grand but even with his win ratio - he's got to allow for the odd "black swan" event per year and 8 -10 bad trades in a row - - he does not want to be on 10% stakes when that happens ;-))

 

[Splitlink]

I'm afraid that, so far, all this is old hat. More important is what, deep down, you are getting at?

 

[Billy Gates]

Not entirely sure whether all traders view commercial traders as something to aspire to. From my own perspective the only advantage they have is their capital allotment that allows them withstand the draw-downs and they don't really care if they lose it all.

So I would agree with you that commercial traders are not anything special.

In terms of the trading results you have displayed, I am not entirely sure if that is something one may want to do. The biggest aspect of trading, other than the psychological mindset, is that of risk management. This trader seems to show little of that.

I may be wrong in the way I am reading interpreting the results.

 

[Shakone]

If you're going to compare retail and commercial % gain performance, you have to at least adjust for leverage used.

It's not that hard to take a tiny account and run it up 100%+ in a week. Equally, it's not that hard to blow the tiny account attempting to do the same thing. Neither has anything to do with real trading.

A method has to be sustainable. So looking at the accounts you have, lets see their return over 2-3 years or more for example. Otherwise it's pointless. A gimmick.

 

[Forexmospherian]

I'm afraid that, so far, all this is old hat. More important is what, deep down, you are getting at?

Hi Splitlink

Cutting to the chase - First Part -

Most of the commercial Finance trading world are a bunch of deceiving, unscrupulous, too clever for their own good, parasites - and bar stewards as well

Why anyone would want to take advice or try to follow their ways - I just don't know why - they have caused more inexperienced traders to lose their money by misleading them and if they could they would sell your daughter and your grandmother and then charge you for doing it .

Yes - that bad - worse than lawyers, double glazing salesmen and card sharks ;-)

My aim is too give them the "discredit" they deserve and then try and screw more money back off them after losing a lot in the 2008/9 Lehmans crash.

Second Part -

Prove to the traders who are not really there - or have been happy on small moderate returns on day trading - what they are missing. I can explain it with having to charge or sell anything as well - totally Free

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

So I would agree with you that commercial traders are not anything special.

In terms of the trading results you have displayed, I am not entirely sure if that is something one may want to do. The biggest aspect of trading, other than the psychological mindset, is that of risk management. This trader seems to show little of that.

I may be wrong in the way I am reading interpreting the results.

You are correct to say - risk management goes out the window when traders are trying to triple or 10 fold their small accounts in a day or so.

But then like the first trader - who put 22000% increase on his account in less than a couple of months. His initial risk ( exposure) was $7 - must repeat that - $7 !!!

I only use 0.5 to 2% max on my own trading account - and can still make over 10% return on really good days and then 3 - 5 % on average days.

Hardly a risk taker - could I live with more than a 7% drawdown ;-)

Regards

F

 

[Forexmospherian]

If you're going to compare retail and commercial % gain performance, you have to at least adjust for leverage used.

It's not that hard to take a tiny account and run it up 100%+ in a week. Equally, it's not that hard to blow the tiny account attempting to do the same thing. Neither has anything to do with real trading.

A method has to be sustainable. So looking at the accounts you have, lets see their return over 2-3 years or more for example. Otherwise it's pointless. A gimmick.

Hi Shakone

Highlighted the part I think you would like more confirmation and proof on

OK - will do

I have been keeping records of over 50 retail traders of various capabilities since 2007/8 .

I will give you an example of some 2010 stats which were done over 1 to 2 years - but I am sure I can find some for 3 years plus from my old files

I understand you do scalp if I remember correctly after you quoted doing a large number of trades - so you will like this attachment ;-)

Regards

F

 

[Pondlifedregsbutler]

Oh ffs!

 

[Forexmospherian]

OK - This first example as been achieved in approx 31 days - starting in November 2013 - up to December 19th 2013

During that time the trader as done 75 trades on 5 main currency pairs - with his favourite being the AU - then the UJ followed by the GU / EU and approx 10 or 11 trades on the GJ

His success rate on the 75 trades is certainly above average at 83% - and during that time he had 34 losses - with most of them being higher than his average wins ( that's bad )

In fact his worst losing trade was larger than his best winning ( really bad)

His average daily % increase on his capital was 726 % - better repeat that - 726% average per day - for 31 days - ( OK he's good - but his risk was only his capital - $7 - yes seven dollars ;-)

I am going to go through all his trades and sift out his advantages and disadvantages etc ( I used to be an accountant ) and then we can see how these compare to other traders we will feature.

They will all be live Retail traders - none of them billionaires or using half a million pound supercomputers - but they are still good enough to get my attention above any Jessie or PTJ - ie these guys agenda's are different to all the commercial world's - they are actually on your side ;-)

Noticed a mistake and too late to edit - if first post corrected - will cancel this one

 

[Shakone]

Hi Shakone

Highlighted the part I think you would like more confirmation and proof on

OK - will do

I have been keeping records of over 50 retail traders of various capabilities since 2007/8 .

I will give you an example of some 2010 stats which were done over 1 to 2 years - but I am sure I can find some for 3 years plus from my old files

I understand you do scalp if I remember correctly after you quoted doing a large number of trades - so you will like this attachment ;-)

Regards

F

Are these from Zulutrade or some similar site?

 

[Forexmospherian]

Are these from Zulutrade or some similar site?

Various sources from all around the world.

The best ones have been in the past from Live ( real money ) competitions - run over the last 5 yrs from brokers like FXCM and Iron FX. Irons's results on the live real money contests are verified by a top accountancy group Ernst & Young.

They are presently doing a demo competition over 2 months with first prize either $100k in cash or a $150 k super car ( last year a Ferrari). I am not interested in demo account results - yet again like retail and commercial - demo and live are chalk and cheese.

Saying that the top 5 accountancy firms have been doing many audits over the years on trading divisions of large Banks - and they still allow them to hide or mask the real true results - or in some cases they are not spotting how they mislead;-)

For example many of Etoro's thousands of traders who copy other traders have been conned by traders who are not closing out their trades and not counting them in their stats. So in some cases they have many traders who have great results and are being followed by thousands showing a success rate on say 200 +trades of 70%+ but - only on closed trades - and then the other 20 -30 trades not closed would wipe their accounts out - as they are just heavily in the red.

That's why you have to try and cross reference results and make sure they still have no open trades not declared.

The fact I can do a similar performance myself makes it easier to understand and read the results and spot the problems and whether the traders are really good - or are just on a very lucky roll.

You don't do 2000 live trades and get a success rate over 80% without being good - but then if they are not using a stop and waiting up to 6 months to close some trades out - it will show in the figures somewhere ;-)

You do ideally need 3- 5 yrs of results - because the markets do change and will catch out 90% of all systems normally.

However as long as price in Forex moves more than 10 pips - any way - at various times without continual spikes for over 12 hrs a day - it can be traded using probability theory - TA and of course advanced MM.

As long as you do enough trades - then you should end up with retail results far better than 10% per month ongoing without out having to risk over 1% of your capital per trade

Regards

F

 

[Shakone]

Various sources from all around the world.

The best ones have been in the past from Live ( real money ) competitions - run over the last 5 yrs from brokers like FXCM and Iron FX. Irons's results on the live real money contests are verified by a top accountancy group Ernst & Young.

They are presently doing a demo competition over 2 months with first prize either $100k in cash or a $150 k super car ( last year a Ferrari). I am not interested in demo account results - yet again like retail and commercial - demo and live are chalk and cheese.

Saying that the top 5 accountancy firms have been doing many audits over the years on trading divisions of large Banks - and they still allow them to hide or mask the real true results - or in some cases they are not spotting how they mislead;-)

For example many of Etoro's thousands of traders who copy other traders have been conned by traders who are not closing out their trades and not counting them in their stats. So in some cases they have many traders who have great results and are being followed by thousands showing a success rate on say 200 +trades of 70%+ but - only on closed trades - and then the other 20 -30 trades not closed would wipe their accounts out - as they are just heavily in the red.

That's why you have to try and cross reference results and make sure they still have no open trades not declared.

The fact I can do a similar performance myself makes it easier to understand and read the results and spot the problems and whether the traders are really good - or are just on a very lucky roll.

You don't do 2000 live trades and get a success rate over 80% without being good - but then if they are not using a stop and waiting up to 6 months to close some trades out - it will show in the figures somewhere ;-)

You do ideally need 3- 5 yrs of results - because the markets do change and will catch out 90% of all systems normally.

However as long as price in Forex moves more than 10 pips - any way - at various times without continual spikes for over 12 hrs a day - it can be traded using probability theory - TA and of course advanced MM.

As long as you do enough trades - then you should end up with retail results far better than 10% per month ongoing without out having to risk over 1% of your capital per trade

Regards

F

No.