What Information do I need to Look for to Trade the Dow Jones

[Thomas-M]

Hi

I'm getting overwhelmed trying to piece together all of the things I need to monitor in order to predict how the Dow will do.

There is lots of news that is really good, but unfortunately by the time it comes out the time to profit has passed, for example a few nights ago the Asian markets reported very good news and then the Dow surged over night.


I know that on Thursday Apple announced earnings that were good and Trumps tax plan helped also, however the payroll results yesterday were not so good. All of this news was easily sourced by simply following Investing.com.

What I'm trying to figure out is, since the Dow has a lot of industries that can be affected in many different ways, how does one keep up and gain an understanding of what is important regarding all of the of the major things that affect the Dow, such as oil, currencies, or pretty much anything.

I was going to gather the list of industries of the Dow, and figure out all of the things that affect each of them, however as soon as I began I realized how long it would take, and plus it must already be done. I mean isn't that the whole point of the Dow?

So basically I'm looking for insights on how the Dow may perform over the next few days. Preferably a system that allows you to know these things before the major news sources report it.


Thanks

Thomas

 

[mpups]

I'm getting overwhelmed trying to piece together all of the things I need to monitor in order to predict..

...basically I'm looking for insights on how the Dow may perform over the next few days. Preferably a system that allows you to know these things before the major news sources report it.

You can use whatever system interests you, you can be right less than 50% of the time and still make a profit. Gain experience trading with a demo or a small account while continuing to learn.

 

[Thomas-M]

You can use whatever system interests you, you can be right less than 50% of the time and still make a profit. Gain experience trading with a demo or a small account while continuing to learn.

Thanks Kaeso

I'm figuring that out as I go along, and I don't think it's as complicated as I was making it out to be, and plus, sometimes a big dip occurs just because it's simply a time that everyone has made their mind up to take profits, so even good news may not be enough then.


I made another post recently about trying to find an alert system that tells you every time the price has either increased or decreased by a given number of points. Not simply alerting you to a specific price, I have found loads of them. Any ideas?


Thanks

 

[dbphoenix]

Hi

I'm getting overwhelmed trying to piece together all of the things I need to monitor in order to predict how the Dow will do.

There is lots of news that is really good, but unfortunately by the time it comes out the time to profit has passed, for example a few nights ago the Asian markets reported very good news and then the Dow surged over night.


I know that on Thursday Apple announced earnings that were good and Trumps tax plan helped also, however the payroll results yesterday were not so good. All of this news was easily sourced by simply following Investing.com.

What I'm trying to figure out is, since the Dow has a lot of industries that can be affected in many different ways, how does one keep up and gain an understanding of what is important regarding all of the of the major things that affect the Dow, such as oil, currencies, or pretty much anything.

I was going to gather the list of industries of the Dow, and figure out all of the things that affect each of them, however as soon as I began I realized how long it would take, and plus it must already be done. I mean isn't that the whole point of the Dow?

So basically I'm looking for insights on how the Dow may perform over the next few days. Preferably a system that allows you to know these things before the major news sources report it.


Thanks

Thomas

You can spend years trying to predict what the Dow or any other index or stock or ETF or whatever is going to do "over the next few days" and accomplish nothing more than you would have by staring into the Mirror of Erised. It can't be done. Instead, look at what professionals are doing: what they're buying, what they're selling, where the buying and selling reverse themselves. They know what you don't know and have known it for some time. Follow their tracks, not tea leaves.

As for being right less than 50% of the time, if you can't do better than that, you ought to find some other way of occupying yourself.

 

[Thomas-M]

You can spend years trying to predict what the Dow or any other index or stock or ETF or whatever is going to do "over the next few days" and accomplish nothing more than you would have by staring into the Mirror of Erised. It can't be done. Instead, look at what professionals are doing: what they're buying, what they're selling, where the buying and selling reverse themselves. They know what you don't know and have known it for some time. Follow their tracks, not tea leaves.

As for being right less than 50% of the time, if you can't do better than that, you ought to find some other way of occupying yourself.

Thanks DB, when you say look at what the professionals are doing, how do you do this exactly? Is it a matter of getting to know people or a form of online research?

 

[dbphoenix]

Thanks DB, when you say look at what the professionals are doing, how do you do this exactly? Is it a matter of getting to know people or a form of online research?

Follow their trades. These will be printed on a chart. But take care not to clutter up the chart with indicators.

If you're interested in pursuing this, I suggest you click my signature.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

You should ask the so-called "professionals" to give you signals to put real money on. If you win, they are good. If you lose, they are fake. Never go by what they say or use demo accounts. Always go by what you actually win. Self-proclaimed "professionals" on the internet are penny a two dozens. If they make excuses on why they can't give you a signal, they have no clue and most probably trying to sell you something or lead you to a place you don't want to go.

 

[mpups]

I'm figuring that out as I go along, and I don't think it's as complicated as I was making it out to be, and plus, sometimes a big dip occurs just because it's simply a time that everyone has made their mind up to take profits, so even good news may not be enough then.

It perhaps is as complicated as you think it is (to make money consistently) but you are overwhelmed because you don't know your trading process yet and are spending time & effort learning a lot of extraneous info, which is fine that's how it is in the beginning and hard to avoid

I made another post recently about trying to find an alert system that tells you every time the price has either increased or decreased by a given number of points. Not simply alerting you to a specific price, I have found loads of them. Any ideas?

yeah i replied to your post, hope it helps, its not a bad idea i might try it!

 

[Dowser]

As for being right less than 50% of the time, if you can't do better than that, you ought to find some other way of occupying yourself.

Strategies where 'Reward' is several multiples of 'Risk' are very common and we all know the basic maths behind their profitability...

 

[dbphoenix]

Strategies where 'Reward' is several multiples of 'Risk' are very common and we all know the basic maths behind their profitability...

On paper. But the only component of this over which the trader has control is risk. Unless he cuts his profits short. Which most newcomers do. Which tosses the expected reward out the window. Unfortunately, most traders have to blow up several times before they figure this out.

 

[Thomas-M]

Thanks guys, very helpful, I'll do some reading soon, just playing about with the alert thing I mentioned earlier now.

 

[donone]

Hi

I'm getting overwhelmed trying to piece together all of the things I need to monitor in order to predict how the Dow will do.
.............

That's easy enough, it just goes up and down - sometimes sideways for a while .

Choosing to bet one of these and then holding your nerve whilst it goes against you to an overwhelming extent, before behaving itself - is the hard part. That's where reading, learning, chart hours/days/weeks/months / years come in

Yes it's hard, but if you really want to make it and are bloody minded enough to spend the time, money and effort, you will gradually improve.

 

[tomorton]

Thanks guys, very helpful, I'll do some reading soon, just playing about with the alert thing I mentioned earlier now.

If you are trading long-term off daily charts, you need to decide if you're going to be comfortable following the trend or trading against it. If long-term trend-following, I wouldn't consider being short on the Dow until the 20EMA is below the 50, the 50 is below the 200 and the slope of the 50 is downwards. Even then, there might be stronger downtrends to get behind: trend-following demands multiple targets as many charts won't show trends that meet your criteria much of the time.

A short entry as described is probably weeks away. I do take MA cross-overs at times, but at the very least price would have to be already below the 200 when the 20 cut below the 50. This looks unlikely in the near future on the Dow chart.