Wavespeak Update

[JahDave]

While the pace of the recovery effort slowed a bit at the end of this week, the indices did manage to
stay on the up and up until the closing bell rang. This continued strength furthers our thinking that
last week’s low marked the end of the initial down leg off April’s high, and that we’re now in a larger
recovery. This can equate to additional buoyancy in the near-term, but ultimately, we have to think
that price will roll over and the decline off April’s highs will continue. In fact, if we believe that April’s
highs marked an end to the 2009 advance, an idea made easier to believe by the number of things
we’ve seen change since April, then we have to believe that a larger decline will occur. We do – and we
do. In the pages below, we’ll show you why the best fitting labeling is what it is. This forecast will be
backed by price action as well as technical indicator data. Meanwhile, we will continue to lean on key
levels to ensure we stay in sync with the market’s agenda.

Hi EW, I'm glad to have another Elliott Wave chartist here. If you don't mind I will add your thread to my subscription list. I started studying EW almost 2 years ago, so I'm still learning. Please go check out my thread which is Elliott Wave EURUSD. Also, please post up some charts, I like to see if there might be an alternate count I missed.

Good Trading,
Dave

 

[bj139]

After testing a 61.8% retracement of June’s up leg this week, the indices managed to stabilize and
bounce a bit on Friday. So here we are. If price continues down through these levels, it would be a
very clear indication that price is headed lower as the decline off April’s highs gets to size. If instead
price uses these golden ratios as support and turns back up, we’ll be left with a near-term setup for
another sizable up leg, which would delay the resumption of the overall decline. Either way, we
anticipate a larger decline off April’s highs, since the current decline is not yet big enough to
accomplish what it needs to accomplish. But that shouldn’t stop us from doing what we can with
near-term setups. As far as we’re concerned, we can keep the matter very simple. If price takes out our
key downside levels, we can look lower. If price takes out our key upside levels, we can look higher in
the near-term. We aren’t favoring either near-term outcome right now, but it is hard to ignore the big
shift back to the downside on the technical indicators. For example, the daily indicators have turned
back over to issue new sell signals, while the indices have pressed below their respective 200-day
moving averages. Additionally, the Bullish Percent Indexes are threatening to issue new sell signals.
These things may be providing an early warning of a bearish victory, but there’s no reason to get
jumpy. We’ll let price do the talking.

Yes. Wait for the trend to clearly define itself before jumping in front of the moving train

 

[riaamaan]

Despite some early session volatility, the indices started the week in a pretty boring way, as all indices
closed the session within a handful of points from the flat line. This slow showing leaves us at the
same place we were heading into the weekend. We are confident that the indices are in a larger decline
off April’s highs, and we have a pretty good idea where the decline is headed. In the near-term, we
find ourselves at a small crossroads where price has an opportunity to either trace out a larger nearterm
recovery, or head directly lower in a continuation of the decline. We have key levels situated on
both sides of the market’s current location. If price turns higher and takes out our upside levels, it will
tell us that a larger near-term recovery is going to occur, thereby delaying the continuation of the
decline. On the other hand, if price continues down from here and stays below our downside levels, it
will first provide additional confidence that a larger decline is in fact playing out, and secondly, will
strongly suggest that the decline is continuing right away. All of this information has been discussed in
detail in the most recent publications, so I’ll do my best to avoid repeating the exact same thing here.
Instead, we’ll just briefly review the current situation before discussing why our key levels are where
they are. Hopefully this will provide some insight into our methods.

Interestingly enough, and you may have mentioned this in another post, the April 2010 high was the .618 retrace from the 2007 top to the 2009 bottom. Sure hope we don't see a 1 to 1 move down.

 

[OneRock]

After spending last week on the decline, the indices have stabilized and recovered a bit this week. To
this point, price is doing exactly what one would expect if the recovery off July’s lows had completed
and a larger down leg had begun. The decline off last week’s highs sports an impulsive appearance,
and while not yet confirmed, this week’s recovery is slower and appears corrective. Additionally, the
Blue Chips have come back up to test their 50-day moving averages while staying below our key
upside levels. So once again, this is the type of action we’d expect if price was beginning a break down
here. But make no mistake, this remains a very important point for the pattern, one where a statement
needs to be made before becoming super confident that the larger decline off April’s highs has in fact
resumed. As is, the indices have found support at or near our key downside levels, meaning that a
resumption of the decline is not yet set in stone. Action from here is uber-critical in determining
price’s immediate agenda, even if we can continue to make a very compelling case for immediate
weakness.

Key levels have been breached. Will stay short if indices remain below the key levels.

 

[Joules MM1]

incredible....politics is obviously your next step!

 

[Joules MM1]

yeah, i know, i know, youre just trying to sell us something...indeed, humour is implied when read in context....how long is that piece of string?