In the past few days, the word was out that the White House plans to impose some form of tariffs on China to the tune of $60 billion. The strategy would have been to short yen pairs and in particular USDJPY and AUDJPY because the expectation would be safe haven flows.
As of time of writing, news just came out that McMaster is out and that means further opportunities to short yen pairs.
As of time of writing, news just came out that McMaster is out and that means further opportunities to short yen pairs.
fxstrategist
Established member
- Messages
- 603
- Likes
- 17
Usdjpy
The Dollar just keeps dropping against the Yen as shown on the daily chart and it may reach the 104.00 level. In case of a pullback, the 106.00 level may act as resistance.
The Dollar just keeps dropping against the Yen as shown on the daily chart and it may reach the 104.00 level. In case of a pullback, the 106.00 level may act as resistance.
The market may need to monitor the position of the Japanese authorities, as they may start to get nervous after the yen broke the bar 105 against the dollar, says Takuya Kanda, Director General of the research Institute Gaitame.Com Tokyo. "The trend of the dollar to the yen clearly indicates a downward movement, and the pair may fall even more after a rapid decline below the psychological level of 105.25 and 105." The market is concerned about the tension in trade relations between China and the US, but we need to listen carefully to what the Japanese authorities will say. There is no clear support for USD/JPY after break below 105; it is also necessary to follow stock prices to see if the yen buying will be strengthened as a defensive asset or safe haven asset. Note: USD/JPY dropped 0.4% to 104.84 after earlier falling to 104.64, the lowest level since November 9, 2016
USDJPY probably have entered a new downward phase without a clear support for up to 101.20, said Kengo Suzuki, a currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. Possible actions By the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance are now in the spotlight of speculators, as the fall of the dollar below 105 yen may affect Japanese corporate income and Japanese stock prices. There is no clear support in USDJPY until 101.20, the minimum level reached after Trump was elected as President of the United States in November 2016; minor support can be seen at the level of 103.66, where the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement is - of the movement from the low hit in June 2016 up to a maximum of December 2016. The decline may accelerate as the market starts to react to US tariffs and duties as well as China's response to them, the outbreak of a full-scale trade war. It is necessary to monitor how China will react to the introduction of US steel and aluminum tariffs; it is also necessary to monitor how the EU will react to steel and aluminum tariffs.
Volatility Response Model - what the maths says
I attach the short term trend (blue channel) and long term trend (green channel) predictions of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for USDJPY starting 5 pm tonight New York time.
Until the USDJPY closes the week above the long term trend channel middle now at 106.73 then the USDJPY is bearish. This long term trend channel (with its top, middle and bottom) is recalculated at the end of every week.
See the documents attached to the first post of the FX forum thread
"Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics"
to see a description of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) .
Predictions for VRM levels of USDJPY and 12 other FX pairs can be found at
https://www.complexhamiltoniansystems.com/fxcharts/
I attach the short term trend (blue channel) and long term trend (green channel) predictions of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) for USDJPY starting 5 pm tonight New York time.
Until the USDJPY closes the week above the long term trend channel middle now at 106.73 then the USDJPY is bearish. This long term trend channel (with its top, middle and bottom) is recalculated at the end of every week.
See the documents attached to the first post of the FX forum thread
"Predicting future FX support and resistance levels using mathematics"
to see a description of the Volatility Response Model (VRM) .
Predictions for VRM levels of USDJPY and 12 other FX pairs can be found at
https://www.complexhamiltoniansystems.com/fxcharts/
Attachments
I had to close my trade as i was in a buy position. According to analysis above the trend is downwards and still remains bearish. But then looking at what the market is doing the usdjpy has gained almost 30pips since the market opened. The trend is your friend! Current strength for usd and jpy seem to be equal so you might see it ranging for the rest of the day!
The yen fell after the words of Munchina
The yen fell with US Treasuries after US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said he was optimistic about the quality of the US to negotiate trade tariffs with China, which reduced the demand for safe haven assets. The currency of Japan fell against all of its G-10 counterparts after the Wall Street Journal reported that China and the US had quietly begun negotiations to improve access to Chinese markets, citing unnamed sources familiar with the negotiations. Futures for shares in the US rose, while the Australian and New Zealand currencies strengthened.
"Mnuchin said that he is confident that the US and China can reach a trade agreement, which has had a non-indigenous support to risky sentiment," said David Forrester, strategist for corporate and investment banking at Credit Agricole in Hong Kong. "Improving risky sentiment traditionally leads to a weakening of the yen."
The USD/JPY pair advanced 0.32% to 105.06 dollars after it fell to 104.56, the lowest level since November 2016. The pair lost 0.2% in early trading, as the stop loss was triggered at the break of Friday's low at 104.64, Asian FX dealers said, interviewed by Bloomberg, adding that the optional barrier at 104.50 remains untouched. The yield on 10-year US bonds rose by 2 bp. up to 2,8446%.
"We have a very productive dialogue with them," Mnuchin said in an interview with Fox News Sunday, discussing the talks with China. "I'm sure we'll reach an agreement."
Fordster said that the yen's losses could be limited after the last poll showed that the rating approved the actions of the cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe fell by 11.7 points to 32.6%. These are the results of the latest ANN survey conducted on March 24-25; about 48% said that the Cabinet should resign due to a scandal involving the sale of public lands in the educational fund.
Australian and New Zealand dollars are growing for the second consecutive day, which was helped by the improvement of sentiment towards risky assets. AUD/USD adds 0.5% to 0.7738. The National Bank of Australia predicts the pair fall to 0.7500 by the end of the year, while the average forecast of experts polled by Bloomberg agency suggests an increase of up to 80 US cents. NZD/USD climbed 0.4% to 0.7265. Kiwi grows as borrowed accounts intensified purchases after February's foreign trade data surpassed expectations, and politicians focused on a 2% inflation target, the Asian FX dealer said.
The yen fell with US Treasuries after US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said he was optimistic about the quality of the US to negotiate trade tariffs with China, which reduced the demand for safe haven assets. The currency of Japan fell against all of its G-10 counterparts after the Wall Street Journal reported that China and the US had quietly begun negotiations to improve access to Chinese markets, citing unnamed sources familiar with the negotiations. Futures for shares in the US rose, while the Australian and New Zealand currencies strengthened.
"Mnuchin said that he is confident that the US and China can reach a trade agreement, which has had a non-indigenous support to risky sentiment," said David Forrester, strategist for corporate and investment banking at Credit Agricole in Hong Kong. "Improving risky sentiment traditionally leads to a weakening of the yen."
The USD/JPY pair advanced 0.32% to 105.06 dollars after it fell to 104.56, the lowest level since November 2016. The pair lost 0.2% in early trading, as the stop loss was triggered at the break of Friday's low at 104.64, Asian FX dealers said, interviewed by Bloomberg, adding that the optional barrier at 104.50 remains untouched. The yield on 10-year US bonds rose by 2 bp. up to 2,8446%.
"We have a very productive dialogue with them," Mnuchin said in an interview with Fox News Sunday, discussing the talks with China. "I'm sure we'll reach an agreement."
Fordster said that the yen's losses could be limited after the last poll showed that the rating approved the actions of the cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe fell by 11.7 points to 32.6%. These are the results of the latest ANN survey conducted on March 24-25; about 48% said that the Cabinet should resign due to a scandal involving the sale of public lands in the educational fund.
Australian and New Zealand dollars are growing for the second consecutive day, which was helped by the improvement of sentiment towards risky assets. AUD/USD adds 0.5% to 0.7738. The National Bank of Australia predicts the pair fall to 0.7500 by the end of the year, while the average forecast of experts polled by Bloomberg agency suggests an increase of up to 80 US cents. NZD/USD climbed 0.4% to 0.7265. Kiwi grows as borrowed accounts intensified purchases after February's foreign trade data surpassed expectations, and politicians focused on a 2% inflation target, the Asian FX dealer said.
The Dollar Index as at 14.55 GMT+1 was 88.73 which indecates dollar is still weakening. I would be cautious on the usdjpy pair as there might be further downside to it!
hatemypips
Established member
- Messages
- 697
- Likes
- 62
The Volatility Response Model (VRM) only uses high, low and close data. Starting with high, low and close daily data with as much historic data as there is, the maths finds a function that relates the high, low and close during one day to the high, low and close in the next day for all the historic data available. Now merging the historic data over two days and a new high, low and close data set can be created. And the process is repeated. Right up to high, low and close data over eight days. Then the maths can create future levels about which the market will move.
The whole process is repeated for weekly high, low and close data.
No volume data is used.
fxstrategist
Established member
- Messages
- 603
- Likes
- 17
Usdjpy
Good pullback on the USDJPY as the Dollar gains ground on the back of risk aversion appetite coming back into the markets. The USDJPY comes close to the 106.00 level, where it may find some resistance.
Good pullback on the USDJPY as the Dollar gains ground on the back of risk aversion appetite coming back into the markets. The USDJPY comes close to the 106.00 level, where it may find some resistance.
usdjpy trading at 105.90...
fxstrategist
Established member
- Messages
- 603
- Likes
- 17
Usdjpy
The USDJPY drops below the 107.00 level, but the pair is really oscillating around that round number level, which coincides with the 55 day EMA. From the current position, the USDJPY may head in any direction.
The USDJPY drops below the 107.00 level, but the pair is really oscillating around that round number level, which coincides with the 55 day EMA. From the current position, the USDJPY may head in any direction.
Will usdjpy continue its upward trend? Tomorrow 11.04.2018 is another day for FOMC minutes which by my thinking could see the usd gaining strength against the jpy!
fxstrategist
Established member
- Messages
- 603
- Likes
- 17
Usdjpy
The USDJPY is still consolidated around the 107.00 level where we can also find the 55 day EMA. From this level the pair may head in any direction, but there is a higher probability of seeing a bullish continuation.
The USDJPY is still consolidated around the 107.00 level where we can also find the 55 day EMA. From this level the pair may head in any direction, but there is a higher probability of seeing a bullish continuation.
Similar threads
