US Softs

[TBS]

US Softs

September Cocoa

“YOURS” Base support broken, looking like a strong downtrend.

December Cotton

Nice bounce to retest the resistance and provide a more sensible bear trendline. Immediate support at 57 then 54. Looks weak.

September Coffee

Price action being squeezed, looking for a break out in either direction.

September Orange Juice

Shallow downtrend, sitting on support at 87., looking for a break above 90.

October #11 Sugar

Big wedge squeezing the price action, tending to the upside but no clear direction. 6.5 for bear, 7.5 for bull.

 

[oatman]

TBS,

Coffee can get quite interesting in the next 2 months as it's "frost season" in Brazil.

 

[TBS]

TBS,

Coffee can get quite interesting in the next 2 months as it's "frost season" in Brazil.

Yes, there ahve already been rumblings of poor growing conditions - hence the big jump on 20th - then of course we will run the usual gambit of strikes at Santos etc.... nothing ever really changes - even heard a weather chap mentioning El Nino the other day!

 

[TBS]

September Cocoa

Continues to drift downwards, immediate support at c1550, but pretty minor compared with the overhead resistance at 1675.

December Cotton

The bear trend continues to strengthen now that it has established a more steady rate of decline. Minor support at 56, major at 54. Major overhead resistance at 58 then 60.

September Coffee

Minor up trend fails to hold, the two month head and shoulders has broken – (expecting a retest of 67). Major support at 62.5, which is also the target for the H&S.

September Orange Juice

Stuck, out of trend and moving sideways, although at the top end of the range. Break of 90 to the upside would generate some interest, 92.5 would herald a major move, target 100.

October #11 Sugar

The price squeeze continues, the volume seems to prefer the downside, sit and wait…..

 

[TBS]

Support just above 1400 continues to hold for the moment - as does the over-riding bear trend. The next trade is a break to new lows, or a break above 1700, other than that, it is meandering sideways.

Very volatile market with some key support and resistance levels being tested. To the downside a break of 57 should see it test the lows at 53, a further break through 52 would complete a long term double top with 43 as the target - one heck of a drop.

To the upside, obvious major overhead resistance at 63. Notably the two peaks were some 3-4 months apart, the hallmark of a very destructive double top if 52 base support is broken. Minor resistance levels at 60 and 61. As it stands at the moment I wouldn't want to be going long until there is either a clearer base pattern or a break of 63.

Note also the head and shoulder reversal to go up with the head at 53 and the neckline at c 59, this should have given a target of 65, the failure to break through 63, and a subsequent failure at the retest of the neckline doesn't bode well for Cotton.

Coffee continues to meander downwards under an overall bear trend with significant breakdown patterns as it progresses. To the upside, the current double bottom is setting the price action up to have a go at the current trend and is flirting with the immediate overhead resistance at 67. Still an overall bear, but I would be very wary of any break of trend, and a break above 72.5 would be considered bullish. To the downside 57.5 is now major support, a break here and an attack at the psychological 50 looks to be on the cards.

Orange Juice simply looks crap. The price action has been squeezed downwards through a descending triangle, immediate target is 70/71.

A picture of some confusion for sugar. The descending triangles broke down at the end of May but failed to reach target, finding the support around the 6/6.2 level too much to deal with. Net affect it has now recovered back into it's range and is starting to look quite strong. The break above 7.25 yesterday is quite significant a further break above 7.5 should certainly lead to the highs at 8 and potentially on to 9. Major support at 6.75 may offer a lower entry point should it be retested.