US sneezes, everyone else gets a cold??

kagein

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As we all know the fed cut interest rates, upon receiving this news the FTSE closed up on the previous day. the DOW however closed down, why is it that UK investors saw this as a sign that the fed handling the situation but US investors didnt? Which leds me to my second question, how is the UK's real economy affected by the interest rate decisions in America?
 
As we all know the fed cut interest rates, upon receiving this news the FTSE closed up on the previous day. the DOW however closed down, why is it that UK investors saw this as a sign that the fed handling the situation but US investors didnt? Which leds me to my second question, how is the UK's real economy affected by the interest rate decisions in America?

First, the FTSE doesn't particularly represent the 'UK real economy' as a large proportion of the index is comprised of global businesses. The top 10 companies in the FTSE represent nearly 50% of the index weighting and when you consider that they are names like Vodafone, Royal Dutch Shell, Anglo American you can see the irrelevance of the UK economy to their performace (from memory Vodafone's UK business is less than 10% of group value - much less than the value of its investment in Verizon Wireless in the US).

Second, the US closed down, but bear in mind it was closed on Monday, so it had about 5% of Monday's global falls to come back from in the first instance (the US index futures were about 5% down prior to the rate announcement) . To close about a percent down, wasn't a bad performance (ie equivalent to 4% up on the day). But...the nature of the cuts spooked the markets that things must be worse than they thought for the Fed to spring a surprise like this, and there's also inflation risk added to the mix now.

Third, the actual inter-relationships between the UK and US economies (which now include the extent to which our financial system is imperilled by their sub-prime crisis) is very complex: too much so to reasonably answer here: read The Economist for a few weeks to get a better understanding...
 
First, the FTSE doesn't particularly represent the 'UK real economy' as a large proportion of the index is comprised of global businesses. The top 10 companies in the FTSE represent nearly 50% of the index weighting and when you consider that they are names like Vodafone, Royal Dutch Shell, Anglo American you can see the irrelevance of the UK economy to their performace (from memory Vodafone's UK business is less than 10% of group value - much less than the value of its investment in Verizon Wireless in the US).

Second, the US closed down, but bear in mind it was closed on Monday, so it had about 5% of Monday's global falls to come back from in the first instance (the US index futures were about 5% down prior to the rate announcement) . To close about a percent down, wasn't a bad performance (ie equivalent to 4% up on the day). But...the nature of the cuts spooked the markets that things must be worse than they thought for the Fed to spring a surprise like this, and there's also inflation risk added to the mix now.

Third, the actual inter-relationships between the UK and US economies (which now include the extent to which our financial system is imperilled by their sub-prime crisis) is very complex: too much so to reasonably answer here: read The Economist for a few weeks to get a better understanding...

Thanks, it makes sense now.
 
I thought this article summed up the reaction to the cut nicely:

Business leaders criticize the Fed
Davos attendees say central bank's emergency rate cut hints of panic
Reuters
updated 5:43 a.m. MT, Wed., Jan. 23, 2008

DAVOS, Switzerland - Business leaders appealed for more leadership from U.S. and other central banks to head off an economic downturn on Wednesday, with some accusing policy makers of losing their grip and their nerve.

As shares in Europe fell heavily again on Wednesday on deepening fears of a slowdown, a day after an emergency U.S. interest rate cut, top executives expressed alarm as they gathered for an annual retreat in the Swiss resort of Davos.

“Central banks have lost control,” said billionaire financier George Soros.

Other executives attending the opening discussions of the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos said the surprise decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday to cut interest rates by 75 basis points looked like a panic move.

“We have a market-friendly Fed possibly injecting a lot of liquidity in the system which will set us up for another bubble economy,” said Stephen Roach, head of Asia for U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS.N).

“I’m sort of worried that all they did yesterday was to hit the snooze button. (This is) excessive monetary accommodation that just takes us from bubble to bubble to bubble.”

Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. treasury chief, was critical too: “It’s hard to give a high grade (to central banks) for what’s happened in the last six months.”

But another former head of the U.S. Treasury, John Snow, was more supportive of the U.S. central bank.

“What yesterday’s action shows us is the Fed is focused but they are aware of negative trends in the economy and prepared to take bold steps,” he said.

More than 2,500 business and political leaders are gathering in Davos, facing what many fear could be the biggest financial crisis since World War Two.

The emergency U.S. interest rate cut on Tuesday, after two days of plummeting stock prices, set the tone for the WEF meeting where financial, industrial and political figures, including U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, are awaited.

Policymakers accustomed to relaxed, apres-ski fireside chats will this year confront a raging banking crisis and a widely forecast recession, with policy differences between the United States and Europe at the fore.

The Fed’s unilateral action on Tuesday, when it cut rates by 75 basis points, was its biggest emergency cut in two decades.

It will either put pressure on the European Central Bank to relax its view against cutting rates and coordinate a response, or admit a policy rift between Europe and the United States.

European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet, speaking in Brussels on Wednesday before departing for Davos, refused to yield to calls for European interest rate cuts, saying the ECB would stick to its target of keeping inflation low.

Worries are intensifying that fallout from the credit crisis -- which began in earnest in August when problems in the U.S. subprime mortgage sector led to a seizure in interbank lending -- will be felt in all corners of the globe.

“No economy can decouple itself from the U.S.,” said Indian trade minister Kamal Nath. But he added: “I don’t see the impact as that substantial in India.”

Several policymakers have dropped out of the Davos event over the past week due to intense domestic demands.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and British finance minister Alistair Darling have both withdrawn at short notice.

U.S. foreign policy chief Rice is set to give the opening address at Davos later in the day, focusing on what she refers to as “American realism” in the world.

Rice will also be meeting Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf -- their first face-to-face talks since the assassination last month of opposition politician Benazir Bhutto -- and separately with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

Copyright 2008 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

URL: Business leaders criticize the Fed - World business - MSNBC.com
 
Distilled from BBC Site.......

No, eveyone is NOT going to catch cold....only some will.....

The US Federal Reserve would probably keep cutting rates, and that in turn might "make the recession a bit more shallow", but it would not stop the downturn.

US government is trying to solve the current crisis by "reaching back into the same playbook that created the mess in the first place".

Instead of tackling asset bubbles like inflated housing and stock markets head-on, they waited until the bubble had burst and then cleaned up afterwards.

Only UK/European Economies is going to catch cold...China and India will not as they are mainly driven by a massive domestic demand and are not reliant on global economies.

India's commerce minister Kamal Nath was more optimistic. East Asia, he said, was not as dependent on the US economy anymore, not least because South-South trade was soaring.

India's economy itself, he said, was much more driven by domestic demand than foreign investment.
 
I believe that USD will go strong since this year.

USD/CAD will come back 1.1000
 
Could you please explain your statement....

USD/CAD will come back 1.1000..
 
Could you please explain your statement....

USD/CAD will come back 1.1000..

80% of products and services made in Canada will export to USA. If USD/CAD is under than 1.10 for too long time, Canadian industry will have to face a big depression. Canada can not afford that.

From 1.6 drops to 0.9, this change is too huge, technically it should rebound at least 20%.
 
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