Airthrey Capital
Well-known member
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I have attached a copy of the forecasts for todays non-farm payroll figures from Bloomberg.
As ever, the market seems to be hanging on this one figure, which despite everything will be completely irrelevant in a couple of weeks time no doubt.
Interesting to note however such a wide ranging set of forecasts..
I hope neither Argus (-10) nor Wachovia (+250) are correct, as either would seriously require some fresh underpants!
Figure due at 1.30pm I believe.
PS..Can anyone confirm that US bond markets will close early today?
See below
FIRM Unemploy Avg Hrly Nonfarm
Rate Earnings Payroll
-----------------------------------------------------
Number of replies 72 53 74
MEDIAN 5.4% 0.3% 148
AVERAGE 5.4% 0.3% 141
High Forecast 5.5% 0.4% 250
Low Forecast 5.4% 0.1% -10
Previous 5.4% 0.3% 144
-----------------------------------------------------
ABN Amro 5.4% n/a 125
4CAST Ltd. 5.5% 0.3% 75
Action Economics 5.4% 0.2% 140
AIG Global Invest. 5.5% 0.3% 182
AIB Global Treasury 5.4% 0.3% 155
Alleti Gestielle 5.4% n/a 160
Argus Research Corp. 5.4% 0.3% -10
BNP Paribas 5.4% 0.3% 170
B of A Capital 5.4% 0.3% 160
B of A Securities 5.4% 0.3% 170
Banca IMI n/a n/a 145
Bantleon Bank AG 5.4% n/a 140
Barclays Capital 5.4% 0.2% 120
Bear Stearns 5.4% 0.3% 175
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsub. 5.5% n/a 160
Briefing.com 5.4% 0.2% 155
CantorViewpoint 5.4% 0.2% 142
CDC IXIS Capital 5.5% 0.2% 130
CIBC World Markets 5.4% 0.1% 150
Citigroup 5.5% 0.3% 50
ClearView Economics 5.5% 0.2% 150
Commerzbank 5.4% 0.3% 175
Commonwealth Bank 5.4% 0.3% 170
Credit Suisse FB 5.4% 0.3% 100
Daiwa Securities 5.5% n/a 130
Danske Bank 5.4% n/a 100
DekaBank 5.4% 0.3% 130
Deutsche Bank Research 5.4% 0.2% 190
Deutsche PostBank 5.4% n/a 150
Dresdner Kleinwort 5.4% 0.2% 110
Essen Hyp. n/a n/a 210
Exane 5.5% 0.2% 100
FTN Financial 5.4% 0.2% 100
Fortis Bank NV 5.4% n/a 180
Global Insight 5.4% n/a 150
Goldman Sachs 5.4% 0.2% 150
Griffin, Kubik, Stephens 5.4% 0.3% 190
High Frequency Economics 5.4% 0.3% 150
HBOS Treasury 5.4% 0.3% 155
HSBC Markets 5.5% 0.2% 75
HypoVereinsbank 5.4% 0.2% 120
I.D.E.A. 5.4% 0.3% 175
ING Financial Markets 5.4% 0.3% 190
Insight Economics 5.4% 0.2% 125
IntesaBci 5.5% n/a 120
J.P. Morgan 5.5% 0.4% 100
JPMorgan Fleming 5.5% 0.3% 125
Landesbank BW 5.4% n/a 125
Lehman Brothers 5.5% 0.3% 175
Maria Fiorini Ramirez 5.4% 0.3% 150
MCM Moneywatch 5.5% 0.2% 100
Merrill Lynch 5.4% 0.2% 140
Mizuho Securities 5.5% 0.2% 100
Morgan Stanley 5.4% 0.2% 125
National Bank Financial 5.4% 0.3% 200
National City Bank 5.4% n/a 114
Nesbitt Burns 5.5% 0.3% 162
Nextra 5.4% n/a 168
Nomura 5.5% 0.3% 170
Nord/LB 5.4% n/a 120
PNC Bank 5.5% 0.3% n/a
Prebon Marshall 5.4% n/a 130
RBS Greenwich Capital 5.4% n/a 145
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 5.5% 0.3% 100
Scotiabank Group 5.4% 0.2% 150
Societe Generale 5.4% 0.3% 175
Stone & McCarthy 5.4% 0.2% 160
Thomson/IFR 5.4% 0.3% 180
UBS Securities LLC 5.4% 0.3% 120
UFJ Bank 5.4% 0.3% 110
Unicredit Banca Mobilare 5.4% n/a 204
Wachovia n/a n/a 250
Wells Fargo 5.4% n/a 165
Westpac Banking 5.4% n/a 100
Wrightson 5.5% 0.3% 100
As ever, the market seems to be hanging on this one figure, which despite everything will be completely irrelevant in a couple of weeks time no doubt.
Interesting to note however such a wide ranging set of forecasts..
I hope neither Argus (-10) nor Wachovia (+250) are correct, as either would seriously require some fresh underpants!
Figure due at 1.30pm I believe.
PS..Can anyone confirm that US bond markets will close early today?
See below
FIRM Unemploy Avg Hrly Nonfarm
Rate Earnings Payroll
-----------------------------------------------------
Number of replies 72 53 74
MEDIAN 5.4% 0.3% 148
AVERAGE 5.4% 0.3% 141
High Forecast 5.5% 0.4% 250
Low Forecast 5.4% 0.1% -10
Previous 5.4% 0.3% 144
-----------------------------------------------------
ABN Amro 5.4% n/a 125
4CAST Ltd. 5.5% 0.3% 75
Action Economics 5.4% 0.2% 140
AIG Global Invest. 5.5% 0.3% 182
AIB Global Treasury 5.4% 0.3% 155
Alleti Gestielle 5.4% n/a 160
Argus Research Corp. 5.4% 0.3% -10
BNP Paribas 5.4% 0.3% 170
B of A Capital 5.4% 0.3% 160
B of A Securities 5.4% 0.3% 170
Banca IMI n/a n/a 145
Bantleon Bank AG 5.4% n/a 140
Barclays Capital 5.4% 0.2% 120
Bear Stearns 5.4% 0.3% 175
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsub. 5.5% n/a 160
Briefing.com 5.4% 0.2% 155
CantorViewpoint 5.4% 0.2% 142
CDC IXIS Capital 5.5% 0.2% 130
CIBC World Markets 5.4% 0.1% 150
Citigroup 5.5% 0.3% 50
ClearView Economics 5.5% 0.2% 150
Commerzbank 5.4% 0.3% 175
Commonwealth Bank 5.4% 0.3% 170
Credit Suisse FB 5.4% 0.3% 100
Daiwa Securities 5.5% n/a 130
Danske Bank 5.4% n/a 100
DekaBank 5.4% 0.3% 130
Deutsche Bank Research 5.4% 0.2% 190
Deutsche PostBank 5.4% n/a 150
Dresdner Kleinwort 5.4% 0.2% 110
Essen Hyp. n/a n/a 210
Exane 5.5% 0.2% 100
FTN Financial 5.4% 0.2% 100
Fortis Bank NV 5.4% n/a 180
Global Insight 5.4% n/a 150
Goldman Sachs 5.4% 0.2% 150
Griffin, Kubik, Stephens 5.4% 0.3% 190
High Frequency Economics 5.4% 0.3% 150
HBOS Treasury 5.4% 0.3% 155
HSBC Markets 5.5% 0.2% 75
HypoVereinsbank 5.4% 0.2% 120
I.D.E.A. 5.4% 0.3% 175
ING Financial Markets 5.4% 0.3% 190
Insight Economics 5.4% 0.2% 125
IntesaBci 5.5% n/a 120
J.P. Morgan 5.5% 0.4% 100
JPMorgan Fleming 5.5% 0.3% 125
Landesbank BW 5.4% n/a 125
Lehman Brothers 5.5% 0.3% 175
Maria Fiorini Ramirez 5.4% 0.3% 150
MCM Moneywatch 5.5% 0.2% 100
Merrill Lynch 5.4% 0.2% 140
Mizuho Securities 5.5% 0.2% 100
Morgan Stanley 5.4% 0.2% 125
National Bank Financial 5.4% 0.3% 200
National City Bank 5.4% n/a 114
Nesbitt Burns 5.5% 0.3% 162
Nextra 5.4% n/a 168
Nomura 5.5% 0.3% 170
Nord/LB 5.4% n/a 120
PNC Bank 5.5% 0.3% n/a
Prebon Marshall 5.4% n/a 130
RBS Greenwich Capital 5.4% n/a 145
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 5.5% 0.3% 100
Scotiabank Group 5.4% 0.2% 150
Societe Generale 5.4% 0.3% 175
Stone & McCarthy 5.4% 0.2% 160
Thomson/IFR 5.4% 0.3% 180
UBS Securities LLC 5.4% 0.3% 120
UFJ Bank 5.4% 0.3% 110
Unicredit Banca Mobilare 5.4% n/a 204
Wachovia n/a n/a 250
Wells Fargo 5.4% n/a 165
Westpac Banking 5.4% n/a 100
Wrightson 5.5% 0.3% 100
