us crude new trading

[huggim]

Hi All,

First post from me and wanted some thoughts on my findings on trading us crude futures just after US important news releases.

Ive been monitoring the price movements of us crude after the first US news release of the day and over the last 4 months have made over 500+ pips a month each month so far.

basically, i take a reading from the 10 min chart (i use spread companies like tradefair charts not MT4), after the first news realease of the day, if its moved up i buy and if down i sell (i wait until the 10 min candle has closed)- basically following what the price is doing. i have a 100 pip TP and a 90 pip SL.

To the more experienced out there ... is this a sensible strategy or is this just a straight forward gamble (50 50 if you like) and ive just been lucky so far ?

thanks in advance for any advice

 

[BornWinner]

For my personal experience and for what I have read, doing that or flipping a coin is the same. Although I dont know if you are taking resistance levels in consideration, or any other factors. But in CFD's its all about knowing when to exit position not entering, so it depends when do you leave.

 

[huggim]

thanks for your comments BornWinner .. i take on board your comments .. however +330 pips again already this month .. this is the 5th month in a row showing profit .. surely it cant all be luck ?
Does anyone know where i can get some historical data from to check out my findings ?

Thanks

 

[BornWinner]

Well of course it isnt all luck. Since if you can do a good news reading, you can predict what is coming through the day, although it can change throughout the day.
The thing is, you make a good reading of the influence that some news will have on oil price. And that may be your case. Therefore inst just luck but good reading of the market.

Like for example today, I used my "system", and at 13pm the oil price started to rise in a way it was predictable for me to know it would rise.
And indeed it rose to 78.08, around 2dollars increase....

 

[huggim]

yeah i think thats the point .. knowing how much effect the news release will have. At present im just trading on the first important US news release of the day, no matter what the news is ..
if this news is as expected or has little or no effect on the price then yes my trade is a 50-50 coin flip ... but for those releases that have a bigger effect i seem to get on the back of those ok.
I guess its just filtering out those 'coin flip' trades

 

[xyz456]

To get 300 -800 pips a day you must wait on long bars min 20-30pips M1 follow them
quickly but wait for the direction . After following this meantrend you must take profit
by time , dont wait too long , after 50-100pips , make a break and follow again .....
Wind like a directionflag , then you got optimum pips overall , dont think ,what they
say in the news its bull**** , forget it fast .....dont think , wind ,wind ,wind ......

good luck my friend

yeah i think thats the point .. knowing how much effect the news release will have. At present im just trading on the first important US news release of the day, no matter what the news is ..
if this news is as expected or has little or no effect on the price then yes my trade is a 50-50 coin flip ... but for those releases that have a bigger effect i seem to get on the back of those ok.
I guess its just filtering out those 'coin flip' trades

 

[Jason101]

I think what is a sensible strategy is to trade what you believe in. Don’t listen to others to much they will believe in something else. Don’t be to greedy and be more patient while trading than you think you should be. Like Rome your trading account will not grow in a day, softly softly catchy monkey.

 

[BornWinner]

"Don’t be to greedy and be more patient while trading than you think you should be."

Exactly, yesterday I bought at 77.04, and the price fell down to 76.20, no worries, I just waited until today, I woke up and voilá, the price was at 78.84 and well, I won again

 

[aldy]

Although it is a heavy commission play, I get 8 ticks daily 10 times on 4 contracts....I time momentum and volume exacts. It has been a good solid living for 2 years. (max loss of 50)

 

[xyz456]

That is the price fills horrible add spread .....:-0
I got sometimes 1$ at gold , because they dont fill well .....
So I scalp between my trades to compensate this losses.....:cheesy:
Also I take profit small wins or stopout small losses on breakeven ....:smart:
So I minimise my losses and get more win ....$$$$$$$$$:clap:

wish you all good trades & wins


:clover:

 

[profit13]

The U.S. Commerce Department reported a sharp increase in retail sales Monday, a sign consumers feel more bullish about their financial situation going into the key holiday shopping season.

 

[oiltrader81]

you better dont trade over news !!! build a more systematical approach and follow it !! look at the seasonality effect and researches in the sector (forecasts,demand growth,etc)
dont take TV news for granted...the majority of people who trades those news lose money!!