Trying to learn how to beat it!

[Burkina2008]

Day 0 - Getting Started...

Hello my name is Diogo, I am portuguese and I work in controlling on a big multinacional company. I have a BA in Management and a Master in International Business from Copenhagen Business School.

Why did I want to go into management, finance when I was young??? Simple: Gordon Gekko...But after an initial experience in London private banking world, I decided that I wanted to actually live a life and doing 55-60 hour weeks didnt compensate for the 4500 pounds they were paying me monthly even because living there was not really cheap if you want to have a fashionable lifestyle.

A few years after down the road, I reach the point where I am tired of being employed by others and want to have my own control of things, so on the 1st of January 2013, I will either start my own company (doing a thing, that has nothing to do with the markets) or trading to earn money...

Till then is just 10.000 pounds bankroll put on a spreadbetting acount on the 17th of November, that have grown to 11700 till today. Anyway, I have loads to learn and I hope to learn with this community as well.

The 17% return in one month can be 99% due to luck, I am afraid, because my tactic is lacking close to everything. Like some say...follow the trend, but then there are entry and exit points, time, and other elements. Till now for me was just...look at FTSE100 stocks that have ADX over 25-30 and then look at the graph, see where support and resistance are, and shoot for a trend...a lack of scientifical everything...I need to find a system.

I will put my trades here everyday from now on and give reasons why I did what i did...from now i give you my open positions:

- Admiral 3 per point bought at 817,5 - stop loss at 784,2 --- (4,5 pounds) at moment

- BAE Systems 24 per point sold at 276,9 - stop loss at 281,5 --- 108 pounds profit at moment

- BAT 2 per point sold at 2953 - stop-loss at 3007 --- 1 pound profit at the moment

- HSBC 6 per point sold at 482,2 - stop-loss at 501,7 ---- 14,40 pounds profit at the moment

 

[Burkina2008]

Day 6 - Some direction....

I have some ideas on the way to start my mechanic system after reading a few books on this subject the last few days; So my system would range something like this:
- Analyze FTSE stocks on the weekend
- Search for ADX more or equal to 30 and 5day high or low.
- Maximum 10 stocks
- 1% bankroll risk on each stock
- stop-loss 1/2 of limit
- limit = resistance/support
- stop-loss 2 days low or high (rule of thumb)
- close all that didnt reach limit or stop loss on friday no matter what


Now i need your help...I need to find a FREE software or webpage that lets me filter the FTSE stock by ADX...anyone can provide me with an answer? Thanks in attecipation

 

[barjon]

ProRealTime: Financial Technical Analysis Software & Real-Time Market Data

 

[Burkina2008]

First of all, thank you for the link, very useful.

Day 12 - - First choices of the new system.

After screening for these rules, I chose out of the UK stock market, a few choices that I then proceded to put orders on the market. 5 selections, all complying with the rules I've choosen all of which long positions:

- Experian Group - long 876,4 - stop-loss 835,0 - 2 GBP
- Old Mutual - long 136,8 - stop-loss 133,8 - 36 GBP
- Serco Group - long 477,1 - stop-loss 463,2 - 7 GBP
- Segro - long 209,8 - stop-loss 197,9 - 9 GBP
- William Hill - long 203,5 - stop-loss 193,2 - 10 GBP

I am also reading Trading For A Living - Psychology Trading Tactics Money Management - Alexander Elder (1993), which looks at the topic from another prespective and has give me some interesting points...

 

[Burkina2008]

Day 23 - First Big Dumm Mistake

So my first big mistake was...of course not following the rules that i gave myself. Instead of keeping the stock for one week only, i kept it for two because at the end of last week, they were all down...

Nevertheless, the practical results for the last two weeks were:
- Segro - hit the stop-loss on the 9th (-172,5 GPB)
- Serco - closed today with profit (+191,8 GBP)
- Old Mutual - closed today with profit (+57,6 GBP)
- Experian - closed today with a loss (-55 GBP)
- William Hill - closed today with profit (+30 GBP)

Total - (+51,9 GBP)
Total minus rolling daily charges (-9,34 GBP) = ( + 42,56 GBP)

Comments on the week and on my strategy would be highly apreciated...thanks

 

[Burkina2008]

Day 26 - - Second round, this time stick with the rules...

Another screening during the weekend, gave me some opportunities:

- Aberdeen Asset Management - long 221.1 - stop-loss 215 - 18 GBP
- Agrekko - short 2020.9 - stop-loss 2101.1 - 2 GBP
- Aquarius - long 176.2 - stop-loss 165 - 9 GBP
- BAT - short 2984 - stop-loss 3017 - 3 GBP
- British Sky - short 687.6 - stop-loss 722 - 3 GBP
- Fenner - long 439,2 - stop-loss 418 - 5 GBP
- Melrose - long 357.9 - stop-loss 343 - 7 GBP
- Micro Focus - long 423,3 - stop-loss 410 - 8 GBP

Reading about the Triple Screen System....interesting....

 

[Burkina2008]

Day 30 - Second winning week, this time following rules...

This time I followed the rules that i made and guess what: I was profitable...

Week Results
- BAT - hit the stop-loss on the 17th (-99 GPB)
- Aggreko - hit the stop-loss on the 19th (-160,4 GPB)
- Aberdeen - closed today with profit (+194,4 GBP)
- Aquarius - closed today with profit (+30,6 GBP)
- BSkyB - closed today with profit (+90,6 GBP)
- Fenner - closed today with profit (+22 GBP)
- Micro Focus - closed today with profit (+146,4 GBP)
- Melrose - closed today with profit (+39,2 GBP)


Total week - (+263,8 GBP)
Total week minus rolling daily charges (-3,93 GBP) = ( + 259,87 GBP)
Total Anual = (+302,43) = +3,02%

Comments on the week and on my strategy would be highly apreciated...thanks

 

[Burkina2008]

Day 33 - - Third round, 3 in 3 would be nice...

Another screening during the weekend, gave me some opportunities:

- Agrekko - long 2063.1 - stop-loss 2045 - 7 GBP
- Cobham - long 196.7 - stop-loss 187.5 - 15 GBP
- Intercontinental Hotels - long 1319.7 - stop-loss 1290 - 3 GBP
- Kazakhmys - long 1128.6 - stop-loss 1185 - 2 GBP
- Micro Focus - long 449.9 - stop-loss 429 - 5 GBP
- Misys - long 304.3 - stop-loss 280 - 4GBP
- Old Mutual - long 147 - stop-loss 142.5 - 18GBP
- Pennon Group - short 687.6 - stop-loss 701.2 - 10GBP
- Rentokil - long 75 - stop-loss 71.5 - 30 GBP

Thinking about the next book to read...any suggestions?

 

[Burkina2008]

Day 37 - Third winning one, but didnt follow the rules tottaly..

I have read a lot about the psychology of trading, and i know that fear and greed are two enemies, nevertheless on thursday i was afraid to lose all my profitable positions, so i came out of the market totally. What is your input on this?

Week Results
- Cobham - hit the stop-loss on the 24th (-138 GPB)
- Pennon - hit the stop-loss on the 26th (-138 GPB)
- Agrekko - closed yesterday afternoon with profit (+530,6 GBP)
- Intercont. Hotels - closed yesterday afternoon with profit (+142,8 GBP)
- Kazakhmys - closed yesterday afternoon with profit (+139,6 GBP)
- Micro Focus - closed yesterday afternoon with profit (+2,5 GBP)
- Misys - closed yesterday afternoon with profit (+16 GBP)
- Rentokil - closed yesterday afternoon with profit (+21 GBP)
- Old Mutual - closed yesterday afternoon with a loss (-5,4 GBP)


Total week - (+571,1 GBP)
Total week minus rolling daily charges (-7,14 GBP) = ( + 563,96 GBP)
Total Anual = (+866,39) = +8,66%

At the moment I am reading Jake Bernstein - The Compleat Day Trader Vol I...interesting concepts but a bit out of date...I will start Vol II when finished...

 

[Burkina2008]

Day 40 - - To the 4th we go...

This weekend's screening opportunities:

- Aegis - long 159,5 - stop-loss 153,5 - 20 GBP
- Amlin - long 352,6 - stop-loss 345 - 15 GBP
- Antofagasta - short 1346,1 - stop-loss 1420 - 2 GBP
- Fenner - long 448,2 - stop-loss 435 - 9 GBP
- Intertek - short 2105 - stop-loss 2152 - 2 GBP
- Kazakhmys - long 1142,6 - stop-loss 1110 - 3 GBP
- Premier Farnell - long 208,8 - stop-loss 195,5 - 9 GBP
- Prudential - long 703,9 - stop-loss 695 - 13 GBP

Two things I've learned and used on this screening and positions. First I now look at the graphs, first of 3 mouths, than 2 weeks and then of the last last 3 days, so I can better distinguish a trend from "noise". Second I see that on average Mondays are very bad days to go long, so I put my short positions on the weekend and wait for the middle of the monday morning to go on my long positions.

 

[Burkina2008]

Day 44 - On the 4th week, we finnaly have a losing one

Continuing on reading the Day Trading books...some concepts sound to good to be true but I am learning something...

Week Results
- Amlin - hit the stop-loss on the 30th (-115,5 GPB)
- Prudential - hit the stop-loss on the 30th (-120,9 GPB)
- Fenner - hit the stop-loss on the 30th (-124,2 GPB)
- Intertek - hit the stop-loss on the 1st (-118,4 GPB)
- Aegis - closed today afternoon with profit (+96 GBP)
- Premier Farnell - closed today afternoon with profit (+8,1 GBP)
- Kazakhmys - closed today afternoon with profit (+155,4 GBP)
- Antofagasta - closed today afternoon with loss (-76,8 GBP)



Total week - (-296,35 GBP)
Total week minus rolling daily charges (-3,15 GBP) = ( - 299,5 GBP)
Total Anual = (+566,89) = +5,67%

 

[Burkina2008]

Day 47 - - Getting back to the wins?

This weekend's screening opportunities, all of them long side, is the market so bullish or am I beeing biased?

- Aberdeen Asset Management - long 250,6 - stop-loss 243 - 15 GBP
- Aegis - long 167,3 - stop-loss 159,1 - 14 GBP
- Barratt Develop - long 120,9 - stop-loss 113 - 15 GBP
- Britvic - long 368,8 - stop-loss 351,2 - 6 GBP
- Intermidiate Capital Group - long 299,1 - stop-loss 289,3 - 12 GBP
- International Consolidated Air - long 186,6 - stop-loss 181 - 20 GBP
- Kazakhmys - long 1201,6 - stop-loss 1155 - 2 GBP
- Rentokil- long 77,4 - stop-loss 73,5 - 30 GBP
- SABMiller - long 2492,8 - stop-loss 2415 - 1 GBP
- Schroeders - long 1697,8 - stop-loss 1565 - 2 GBP

Been looking into new strategies, but since the one I am using is proven to be good, I think I'll wait before I start using something else... I really would like if someone had anything to add to my diary...thank you anyway

 

[advfntrader]

"Trying to learn how to beat it!".....YOU CAN'T

 

[Burkina2008]

"Trying to learn how to beat it!".....YOU CAN'T

Thank you for your contribution, ever so helpful