Trend identification

[meanreversion]

Just wanted to get some thoughts from other members on how best to identify the "trend", in whichever timeframe that might apply. I find ADX to be problematic, too much of a lag if anything, but recently have been using MACD to signal change in trend and direction. Any other suggestions?

 

[tenbobtrader]

A balanced Market begins with the end of a trend.

Each succeeding day adds to the balance until a new trend begins.

The trend beginning is observed as a breakout from the balanced distribution.

A single day session may or may not be a valid locator of value. Value determined from a three day Overlay is far superior.

The trader must be prepared for either a trending or congesting market.

The market generated data gives the support price, the resistance price, and breakout points.

Markets tend to run and pause in all time frames.

Starting from a balance, a market will test the balance limit, then breakout starting a trend.

Then the trend slows, testing the propensity to continue the movement.

Finally, the next balance forms. And so it goes as long as the market exists.

Identify key reference points for trading action.

The day activity is taking place within the context of the longer term [multi-day] auction

 

[squall321]

but recently have been using MACD to signal change in trend and direction

you can use macd histogram on a longer timeframe

a rally on a 4hr timeframe = a trend on the 15 minute

 

[meanreversion]

I've been using daily MACD in order to spot trend, then an oscillator in the 4hr to get onto the "trend". It makes back testing a little difficult. Also, I find that it works until such time as MACD crosses the signal line - this always results in a loss!

 

[Trader333]

Just wanted to get some thoughts from other members on how best to identify the "trend"

Just look at price charts in multiple time frames and that is all you need in my view.


Paul

 

[squall321]

I've been using daily MACD in order to spot trend, then an oscillator in the 4hr to get onto the "trend".

this is basically what I do, but i don't think you can backtest it.

sometimes the retracment comes right down to a support level, which is a sweet trade. but then sometimes it will be trading into a resistance on the higher timeframe, or be in a pattern like a triangle, or whatever, so i pass up the trade.