The Word on the Street

[Thermal Ebb]

NZ CB hints at currency intervention. 2007 all over again. When the entire AsiaPac region is playing the intervention game can any one of them really be singled out as a currency manipulator?

 

[Thermal Ebb]

GBP. Jobless claims and MPC minutes release. Is there ever any good news?

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Spain will be issuing bonds denominated in USD. Watch the eur/usd order flow.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

UK unemployment rate 7.8%. Jobless level -14k in 3 months to December. Earnings growth remained weak at 1.4%.

Mervyn King wanted more QE. 6-3 the others didn't.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

The Brits aren't above a bit of currency intervention themselves, though credit due - they are very subtle. The softer side of soft. Won't hurt the deficit one bit.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Cable 5320 support.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Definition of Currency Manipulator: Any country that's doing better than yours.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

SocGen's 7yr - eur2bn. Covered.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Short term FX GBP punters did well. Put a crimp in the technicals for a while though.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Sectors to be buying:-

IT
Aerospace
Public Administration
Telecoms (satellite)
Scientific R&D
Energy
Transport
Construction
Manufacturing
Engineering

By definition, any that aren't on that list are a divest. (Hint: Financials, banks, funds, insurance, health, medical, consumer tech., marketing).

 

[Thermal Ebb]

FTSE on 5yr high.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Scandi mauling sterling. Lowest levels ever.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Gold. The bottom well and truly taken out. Next stop 1570.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

CHF ZEW at +10 v -6.9 last month. Talk it up boys.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Portuguese to revise GDP forecast down by 100bps. Conservative.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Spain to impose yield ceiling on new bonds. Taking a lead from their Mediterranean contemporaries Greece who imposed a rather more significant ceiling, but unsportingly post hoc, on its own bond investors.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

If 5320 break for Cable, next probable level is 5270.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Excessive Deficit status for France? "Member States must avoid excessive budgetary deficits. Under the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact, they agree to respect two criteria: a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3% and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 60%.".

|Not sure why this should be on the cards now when both France and Germany have historically trampled these criteria. It's either a power play by the EU politburo or there are advantages to the country thus designated that Hollande feels is worth having. If the latter, you can be reasonably sure it's an excuse for him to enact some method to extract that from those that hath and distribute it to those that hath not.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

Spain bond yield cap rumored to be 100bps. This will restrict regional access dramatically.

 

[Thermal Ebb]

German 10y 0.5bp prem only just covered.