The Euro/usd 0.50 cents thread (long term)

RidderTrade

RidderTrade

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Hello,

My view on the euro that it is likely to be Doomed.
I foresee that euro will collapse and hit 0.50 in the longer term..
It could hit 1.3x first, but till now any push up of the euro has failed.

* As we see continuous strenght in the USD , as a safe haven
* As i see problems in the Eurozone, which i see will be a danger to fall apart, and then the euro as well. The EU is not a united union.
* Futhermore i see some earlier recovery on the us economy compared to eurozone economy, due to the rate policy

Does anyone share this view? Whats your opinion? Or you have a contrarian opinion?
Any comment is welcome.

Cheers, RidderTrade

I expect 1.12 euro/usd in 2009
 
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I try not to have opinions and just trade what I see, but if I did it wouldn't be to dissimilar to yours.
 
There's an interesting paradox with the USD which the OP probably doesn't know

The USD is a safe haven because there is debt deflation (liquidation of USD private sector debt);
The USD is a safe haven until their "ponzi" T-Bond market dislocates.

If the Euro/USD reaches 0.50, it's quite possible that no one will be able to collect their winnings.
 
@Fibonelli thanks for your message..
I am confident in calling an 50 cents for euro/usd, however it could take years.. I am still waiting for a bounce to 1.3x to enter shorts.. i dont want to get caught long..as till today, its a choppy ride.. if you look at today..
the euro retreated from 1.2820.
 
here we go again.. 1.2860 yesterday, and now 1.2745, choppy ride.. but we have to give the euro a chance to bounce :)
 
fibonelli said:
There's an interesting paradox with the USD which the OP probably doesn't know

The USD is a safe haven because there is debt deflation (liquidation of USD private sector debt);
The USD is a safe haven until their "ponzi" T-Bond market dislocates.

If the Euro/USD reaches 0.50, it's quite possible that no one will be able to collect their winnings.
Click to expand...

(y)

Not as stupid as US soverign CDS's though... those really *are* daft.
 
I used to think the same way that you do and I would look at the EURUSD daily chart every day waiting for the euro to fall off its cliff. I'm told there is big money waiting for the euro to go either way and I could not understand why anyone would think it could go up.
However a friend changed my thinking recently and then the currency intervention actions of the Swiss this Friday confirmed it for me. A 3% decrease in the value of their currency in minutes shows what a central bank can do if it wants to. Also clearly every currency cannot all devalue at once so someone will be left with an overvalued currency in the race to the bottom.
Every other country in the world can print money (QE). The only currency that cannot do that in a hurry because of its structure the Euro. And Mr Trichet still says there is no risk of deflaton so the Euro could end up being the overvalued one.
I think states at risk of default in the Eurozone like Spain and Ireland might be more likely to leave the euro and run to the IMF before waiting for the EU to print money to save them.
Nicola
 
euro

elitejets said:
In fact the more I read stores like this from a week ago:
Overvalued euro set to plunge 'within months' - Telegraph
The more I think that there is some big money talking up its book and that we are probably going to go the other way.
Nic
Click to expand...

hELLO, yeah i have been waiting for weeks now since the euro was around 1.25 to correct into the 1.3x zone. Its been a choppy ride ever since.. but we are still moving closer to the zone..
 
elitejets said:
I used to think the same way that you do and I would look at the EURUSD daily chart every day waiting for the euro to fall off its cliff. I'm told there is big money waiting for the euro to go either way and I could not understand why anyone would think it could go up.
However a friend changed my thinking recently and then the currency intervention actions of the Swiss this Friday confirmed it for me. A 3% decrease in the value of their currency in minutes shows what a central bank can do if it wants to. Also clearly every currency cannot all devalue at once so someone will be left with an overvalued currency in the race to the bottom.
Every other country in the world can print money (QE). The only currency that cannot do that in a hurry because of its structure the Euro. And Mr Trichet still says there is no risk of deflaton so the Euro could end up being the overvalued one.
I think states at risk of default in the Eurozone like Spain and Ireland might be more likely to leave the euro and run to the IMF before waiting for the EU to print money to save them.
Nicola
Click to expand...

I see countries wanting to join the Euro but non wanting to leave. My view is that there is nowhere to go for the countries in the EMU. Even if they default on debt. I dont think it is possible to go back to the punt or peseta or drachma. The markets would crush them. The Germans and French will not allow the other EMU countries to inflate their way out of debt like the UK and USA. The Germans in particular are aware of the consequences. I also think that Sterling is going to suffer and the UK could go bankrupt. The Euro will probably do reasonably well because of the complicated nature of the European Union. USD will stay strong in the short term, being the world reserve currency. Long term I see it coming off badly and eventually being replaced as the reserve currency.
 
Euro the choppy Boy

elitejets said:
In fact the more I read stores like this from a week ago:
Overvalued euro set to plunge 'within months' - Telegraph
The more I think that there is some big money talking up its book and that we are probably going to go the other way.
Nic
Click to expand...

same feeling for me.. went long euro at 1.2940 with a limit at 1.31.. well the CHOPPY BOY did not came that way.. Luckily i took profit manually at 1.3040.. still looking choppy..
Look at the numerous price overlaps in the Euro.. I dont really care what rest of world thinks.. Its no impulsive rise at all..
At least for the moment.
 
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Euro still choppy..but stabilizing around 1.30 .. could we see addional strenght to 1.33x or even the higher 1.3 (could be gods gift then) ;)

we will follow it..
 
geez.. ben bernanke.., causing major weakness in the usd.. ,
not willing to give up the 50 cents prediction yet.. even if euro/usd is set to move way higher first.. remember the trend in stock markets.. it would not be surprising if euro jumps the next 5/7 months.. and then slumps.. 50% as a massive carry trade unwinds as a very sharp move down in stock market will start like never seen before
 
RidderTrade said:
geez.. ben bernanke.., causing major weakness in the usd.. ,
not willing to give up the 50 cents prediction yet.. even if euro/usd is set to move way higher first.. remember the trend in stock markets.. it would not be surprising if euro jumps the next 5/7 months.. and then slumps.. 50% as a massive carry trade unwinds as a very sharp move down in stock market will start like never seen before
Click to expand...

we will see.. enjoy your week lads
 
euro came down today, however the decline seems a bit corrective..
the same for stock markets.
 
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