Swingin' the currencies part deux

[FXTrend240]

I wanted the title 'swingin' the currencies' but it has already been taken a while ago.

This is a global macro,fundamental based approach to trading the currencies, or any other markets for that matter, stocks, bonds, commodities, whatever.

Don't fight the FED, they know it all.

By anticipating shifts in monetary policy/fiscal policy, or any central bank activity, one can get in on huge moves on currencies.
I'm paying most attention to interest rates, trade balances, GDP , unemployment, retail sales etc .

assessing risk appetite/aversion is also vital. How else can you can you be confident that japanese investors are taking the risk of carry trade? There are a few ways to do this: stock indexes,corporate bond spread, yield curves etc
Technical analysis has its merits too. By using technical analysis you can find more precise entries, i will be using trendlines, a few moving averages and ATR.

Scaling in is key-don't go all in from the start, you could be wrong and that's you out buddy!

Don't go for the big home run, by that i mean don't go all in, but do try and catch some mighty big moves, pyramid in and scale out accordingly.


I'll keep this posted.

 

[FXTrend240]

Im unsure about the pound and to be honesy the time to get short has passed , imo. so i'm just going to sit out of selling pounds.

EURUSD is headed for a much neaded rally, maybe it's short covering, maybe not but the dollar is getting stronger and only a matter of time before US interest rates are raised, hope to fed funds rate is bumped up, then i'd sell a rally to the 50 ema in eurusd off dailies.

Also, chart wise when i look at EURUSD i like to look at USDCHF to see if it looks like it needs a pullback-imo it does.

Ha, forgot to mention im on a demo account . I'm fairly new to trading and would like to get advice on currency trading when it comes.
ill post some pictures later

 

[FXTrend240]

plan is to sell a rally in eurusd if fed funds rate is increased

 

[epetrov]

Interesting approach! Good luck buddy. Looking forward to see the results.
BTW are you able to hold on until the last moment, in order to take the ride, if the set up works of course??
) ))

 

[FXTrend240]

Interesting approach! Good luck buddy. Looking forward to see the results.
BTW are you able to hold on until the last moment, in order to take the ride, if the set up works of course??
) ))

Am i able to ride whole trend until the very last moment? probably not, but can grab the meat of it , and scale out . or exit altogether when either charts or fundamentals tell you to.

You would want to get out of a short dollar carry trade when us interest rates go up wouldn't you? Similarly highs/lows are ways of indicating end of a trend-i.e. a lower low in an uptrend could be a good signal, or it could be a minor correction, it's not 100% certain !

 

[FXTrend240]

when i first enter, i.e. scale in, i risk 4-5% with a stop loss of 3X ATR. target is not defined and will exit when economics or charts tell me to.

i should say that i've spent the last while learning this economics stuff, before that i learned techincal analysis, i think both have their merits and technicals are too useful to dismiss, similarly the FED can blow technicals out of the water.

So basically this is my first attempt to see whether i can do well this way, if not, back to the drawing board, learn more, until i make money on demo, then i go live.

 

[FXTrend240]

Ugh, this sucks, i can't cale in properly because the maximum demo account i can have is 10,000 and the minimum lot size is $10 per pip, at 3X ATR which is around 300-400 pips thats 30-40% of my account....

 

[FXTrend240]

rates stayed the same...so the FED didn't need to increase rates: maybe the US economy needs more room to grow, it has not yet begun to 'overheat' , inflation has not became a problem, yet,seemingly. so im not really sure what to think

Anway, charts are telling me to go long AUDEUR, great uptrend with a solid trendline:maybe due to a short euro carry trade? who knows, but this pair is clearly uptrending and in my opinion it would take a decrease in AUD interest rates for this trend to reverse so i'm placing a buy limit at the trendline

 

[FXTrend240]

oh, here's a picture

 

[FXTrend240]

Technical analysis:i will take trades off charts provided they don't conflict with fundamentals, or even better, if they agree with fundamentals

fundamentals: i will take fundamental trades when a reversal begins, or looks to begin.

 

[FXTrend240]

screw it. can't be arsed to do this- i'd just be boasting over demo account returns and i don;t like making calls.
i've got a lot to learn anyway so i'll may be posting here in a few months time.

 

[nine]

If you decide to continue you might try an Oanda demo account for better scalability.

 

[N Rothschild]

arnt you 16 and demo'ing? not sure you should be telling people how to trade lol

 

[epetrov]

Hey FXTrend240,
your plan for EUR/USD works, ah?