Swing trades

[piker]

Long Gold spot 1130.7, stop 1115.

Target 1200+

Reason - Gold still in longer term bull trend, 4 hour chart provided a buy signal via a triple divergence/wedge.

Will be posting blotters at the end of trades.

 

[piker]

Long S&P500 cash 1104.9, stop 1085

Target 1120

Reason - uptrend remains intact, buy signal triggered of a rising trend line & 4 hour chart's oscillators.

 

[timsk]

piker,
Well done on starting a journal; progress! However, your 'reasons' are too generalized to comment on as they are. If you post a chart with your entries and exits marked, this will help to bring things into focus and enable members to suggest solutions to the issues you're having. If you're not sure how to attach a chart to a post, then go here
Cheers,
Tim.

 

[piker]

Long Gold spot 1130.7, stop 1115.

Target 1200+

Reason - Gold still in longer term bull trend, 4 hour chart provided a buy signal via a triple divergence/wedge.

Will be posting blotters at the end of trades.

Chart attached

Stop is below reaction low of 1116.

 

[piker]

Long S&P500 cash 1104.9, stop 1085

Target 1120

Reason - uptrend remains intact, buy signal triggered of a rising trend line & 4 hour chart's oscillators.

chart attached

Entry was after a break of reaction high, stop is below reaction low.

 

[piker]

Long EUR/USD 1.4734, stop 1.4660

Target 1.5+

Reason - Price on rising trend line, 4 hour chart provided a buy signal

 

[virtuos0]

Your reasons for entering are not good enough. To enter long into strong selling in Gold and Eur you will need to justify why you believe this is a dip rather than a new trend. I'm not saying you're right or wrong by the way, I'm just saying that if you rely on flimsy reasoning such as you've given you will be unlikely to be profitable in the long run.

Also you need to be aware of your correlations, if you're long gold and EUR then it's a fair bet that they will both move in the same direction, leaving you with higher risk than perhaps you intended.

 

[piker]

Your reasons for entering are not good enough. To enter long into strong selling in Gold and Eur you will need to justify why you believe this is a dip rather than a new trend. I'm not saying you're right or wrong by the way, I'm just saying that if you rely on flimsy reasoning such as you've given you will be unlikely to be profitable in the long run.

Also you need to be aware of your correlations, if you're long gold and EUR then it's a fair bet that they will both move in the same direction, leaving you with higher risk than perhaps you intended.

I am just doing what has been done for years, buying into a predominant trend, what's wrong with that? What other reasons are there to be looked at by retail? Long term trend is still up in all 3.

Fair value for S&P is in 500s if USD drop not accounted for, it doesn't stop it trading at x 2, does it.

Secondly, as far as correlation is concerned, risk is spread between 3 instruments depending on stop, as if they do bounce one may run further than another, again no way to know this for sure for a retail.

 

[virtuos0]

I am just doing what has been done for years, buying into a predominant trend, what's wrong with that? What other reasons are there to be looked at by retail? Long term trend is still up in all 3.

Fair value for S&P is in 500s if USD drop not accounted for, it doesn't stop it trading at x 2, does it.

Secondly, as far as correlation is concerned, risk is spread between 3 instruments depending on stop, as if they do bounce one may run further than another, again no way to know this for sure for a retail.

Not sure I like your 'for a retail' tone, it implies that you don't think you can compete or that you don't need to compete with the pro's. Well.. you have to compete, and you can compete.

I have no problem with buying into a major trend, I have no problem with going counter to a major trend, I have no problem with you hiring a couple of midgets to whip you, but the crux of the point is that you failed to justify why NOW is a good time to trade.

I believe you mentioned something about divergence, wedge, oscillators.. NO, that won't cut the mustard, all meaningless. If however you had told me that market sentiment suggests the worries over Greece are overblown, or that Trichet had made a statement saying he would back Greece, or that there were rumours that gold was hitting bids at a key level, or rumours of the US being placed on a negative outlook by the ratings agencies, or.... you get the message. All those kind of things may have the ability to halt the sell off in its tracks. It MIGHT just reverse and shoot back up for no reason at all, you could chance your luck as you have done, but in the long run you're only going to break even at best with what you're doing.

 

[piker]

Not sure I like your 'for a retail' tone, it implies that you don't think you can compete or that you don't need to compete with the pro's. Well.. you have to compete, and you can compete.

I have no problem with buying into a major trend, I have no problem with going counter to a major trend, I have no problem with you hiring a couple of midgets to whip you, but the crux of the point is that you failed to justify why NOW is a good time to trade.

I believe you mentioned something about divergence, wedge, oscillators.. NO, that won't cut the mustard, all meaningless. If however you had told me that market sentiment suggests the worries over Greece are overblown, or that Trichet had made a statement saying he would back Greece, or that there were rumours that gold was hitting bids at a key level, or rumours of the US being placed on a negative outlook by the ratings agencies, or.... you get the message. All those kind of things may have the ability to halt the sell off in its tracks. It MIGHT just reverse and shoot back up for no reason at all, you could chance your luck as you have done, but in the long run you're only going to break even at best with what you're doing.

Yes, but what you suggest is that one ought to trade the news/fundamentals, I don't do that & probably never will. Please don't post any pessimistic stuff as I have enough on my plate without negative posts like you will never cut it. It's your opinion, please keep it to yourself. I had no problem before to trade weakening & strengthening price action, recently something has changed & I find that bots keep triggering most stops, that's not what I think, that's what others have pointed out also. Thanks.

 

[GladiatorX]

Yes, but what you suggest is that one ought to trade the news/fundamentals, I don't do that & probably never will. Please don't post any pessimistic stuff as I have enough on my plate without negative posts like you will never cut it. It's your opinion, please keep it to yourself. I had no problem before to trade weakening & strengthening price action, recently something has changed & I find that bots keep triggering most stops, that's not what I think, that's what others have pointed out also. Thanks.

What he is saying is that you should make decisions on buying and selling based on variables that are important on the supply and demand.

 

[virtuos0]

Yes, but what you suggest is that one ought to trade the news/fundamentals, I don't do that & probably never will. Please don't post any pessimistic stuff as I have enough on my plate without negative posts like you will never cut it. It's your opinion, please keep it to yourself. I had no problem before to trade weakening & strengthening price action, recently something has changed & I find that bots keep triggering most stops, that's not what I think, that's what others have pointed out also. Thanks.

Ok well good luck with your oscillator and wedges.

By the way, no one triggers your stops, no one cares about your stops, not your broker, not the market, not Kermit the frog, no one. Why not educate yourself about the markets before you try trading them?

Oh.. Unless maybe you move billions through the market? Do you?

 

[virtuos0]

What he is saying is that you should make decisions on buying and selling based on variables that are important on the supply and demand.

That's what it all boils down to in the end.

 

[piker]

Ok well good luck with your oscillator and wedges.

By the way, no one triggers your stops, no one cares about your stops, not your broker, not the market, not Kermit the frog, no one. Why not educate yourself about the markets before you try trading them?

Oh.. Unless maybe you move billions through the market? Do you?

add my stop to hundreds of other stops and you have a combined liquidity entity

 

[GladiatorX]

Ok well good luck with your oscillator and wedges.

By the way, no one triggers your stops, no one cares about your stops, not your broker, not the market, not Kermit the frog, no one. Why not educate yourself about the markets before you try trading them?

Oh.. Unless maybe you move billions through the market? Do you?

Virtuos; Not neccesarily correct. If he trades in a bucket shop; (Not on exchanges or multi-ECN environment) then the broker could theoretically hunt stops with manipulation of price (within rules ofcourse). Bucket shops/Retail firms have the ability to manipulate prices and therefore in terms with rules, and therefore you cannot complain; Your stops may be spiked theoretically. However, only by a few ticks @ most. Like 1 or 2. (whereby in the exchange environment you wouldn't have been filled) ... However, you can't think like this; This is what you get in your trading environment. Its not an excuse.


However its a 'bad excuse' & I don't want you to confuse losing trades with 'manipulation'... Its unlikely you are being massively manipulated more than 1-2 ticks, and thats just the game your playing.

You can't blaim a losing trade on your stops getting hit. Its either
1. Bad stop loss entry
2. Bad trade.

Nothing else.

 

[virtuos0]

Virtuos; Not neccesarily correct. If he trades in a bucket shop; (Not on exchanges or multi-ECN environment) then the broker could theoretically hunt stops with manipulation of price (within rules ofcourse). Bucket shops/Retail firms have the ability to manipulate prices and therefore in terms with rules, and therefore you cannot complain; Your stops may be spiked theoretically. However, only by a few ticks @ most. Like 1 or 2. (whereby in the exchange environment you wouldn't have been filled) ... However, you can't think like this; This is what you get in your trading environment. Its not an excuse.


However its a 'bad excuse' & I don't want you to confuse losing trades with 'manipulation'... Its unlikely you are being massively manipulated more than 1-2 ticks, and thats just the game your playing.

You can't blaim a losing trade on your stops getting hit. Its either
1. Bad stop loss entry
2. Bad trade.

Nothing else.

Perhaps I should have made myself clearer, I am aware that stop hunting happens, it happens on the interbank market, it happens via your bookie/spreadbet company, but my point was specifically in regard to Piker's stops. I was speaking in the singular not the plural. No one is hunting his stops.

 

[virtuos0]

add my stop to hundreds of other stops and you have a combined liquidity entity

Don't put your stop where hundreds of other stops are, problem solved!

 

[piker]

Bots hunt stops, it's a fact. Yours, mine, your neighbours

 

[GladiatorX]

Bots hunt stops, it's a fact. Yours, mine, your neighbours

Everyone hunts stops. God.
Trading is about identifying potential order flow.

 

[virtuos0]

Bots hunt stops, it's a fact. Yours, mine, your neighbours

As Gladiator says, stop hunting or rather trading in the direction of a likely stop is nothing more than a standard market strategy employed by every intelligent market participant. Stop orders acts to accelerate price when they are hit. Good traders are aware of this and act accordingly to avoid it.