jackfutu18
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Since you are here, you may care about softs market. I have reason to share the latest information on the market with you guys. Just check the Softs Review for the week of June 28th, 2010 for your business!
By Pitguru
"On Friday the market saw a continued downside pull across the floor with old crop meal and beans holding moderate gains into option expiration. The market fell under the weight of weekend profit taking and bearish weather with the ridge all but shattered overnight into Friday. This added bearish momentum to corn and wheat with only minimal fundamental support there. Basis gains in old crop beans ahead of FND continue to support bull spreads with the N/X spread looking to break above 50 this week. A lack of fresh demand information for wheat and corn allowed bears to get another handhold with weather working in their favor as technical selling increased. Smart commercials were looking for upside corn coverage and should continue into July with downside risk limited from current levels. The overnight continued the pattern almost perfectly with beans showing the best “strength” as corn and wheat continue to slowly sag. Meal gave up slightly showing that receipts may be looming at the current inverse with FND on the horizon. Today’s session looks to open in line or weaker than the overnights due to flagging macro momentum with the USD gaining against the Euro to start the final days of June. The trade should remain quiet today and into Tuesday as it prepares for the acreage and stocks report as well as month end on Wednesday when all the fireworks are supposed to go off.
Looking at weather, the market saw the ridge implode late last week. The trade saw this coming, thus the downside move in corn ahead of the acreage report. I still feel it’s foolish to be a lemming here with July on the horizon and the all important heading and pollination period at our doorstep. There is no weather premium in corn at the moment making this market more susceptible to an upside move from here rather than downside move no matter what technicals say. Heavy precipitation across MN, ND, WI and SD is becoming a major problem with wheat getting laid flat due to rains and wind, corn stunted due to flooding fields and beans dwarfed by the same conditions. How can we beat last year’s production numbers without a perfect crop? I just don’t see it. This idea will either be confirmed or laid out on Monday’s crop progress report due out post close.
Heading into July I can look at a few ideas with old crop versus new crop beans very interesting. Remember that risk is always added when there is a weather issue and when can you ever remember a season without at least one weather scare?
In conclusion, lean long rather than short. Everything is not as serene as it appears heading into July and Chinese weather remains a major question mark following more purchases of US beans and corn late last week. If commercial demand remains, look higher rather than lower no matter how great weather “appears”."
By Pitguru
"On Friday the market saw a continued downside pull across the floor with old crop meal and beans holding moderate gains into option expiration. The market fell under the weight of weekend profit taking and bearish weather with the ridge all but shattered overnight into Friday. This added bearish momentum to corn and wheat with only minimal fundamental support there. Basis gains in old crop beans ahead of FND continue to support bull spreads with the N/X spread looking to break above 50 this week. A lack of fresh demand information for wheat and corn allowed bears to get another handhold with weather working in their favor as technical selling increased. Smart commercials were looking for upside corn coverage and should continue into July with downside risk limited from current levels. The overnight continued the pattern almost perfectly with beans showing the best “strength” as corn and wheat continue to slowly sag. Meal gave up slightly showing that receipts may be looming at the current inverse with FND on the horizon. Today’s session looks to open in line or weaker than the overnights due to flagging macro momentum with the USD gaining against the Euro to start the final days of June. The trade should remain quiet today and into Tuesday as it prepares for the acreage and stocks report as well as month end on Wednesday when all the fireworks are supposed to go off.
Looking at weather, the market saw the ridge implode late last week. The trade saw this coming, thus the downside move in corn ahead of the acreage report. I still feel it’s foolish to be a lemming here with July on the horizon and the all important heading and pollination period at our doorstep. There is no weather premium in corn at the moment making this market more susceptible to an upside move from here rather than downside move no matter what technicals say. Heavy precipitation across MN, ND, WI and SD is becoming a major problem with wheat getting laid flat due to rains and wind, corn stunted due to flooding fields and beans dwarfed by the same conditions. How can we beat last year’s production numbers without a perfect crop? I just don’t see it. This idea will either be confirmed or laid out on Monday’s crop progress report due out post close.
Heading into July I can look at a few ideas with old crop versus new crop beans very interesting. Remember that risk is always added when there is a weather issue and when can you ever remember a season without at least one weather scare?
In conclusion, lean long rather than short. Everything is not as serene as it appears heading into July and Chinese weather remains a major question mark following more purchases of US beans and corn late last week. If commercial demand remains, look higher rather than lower no matter how great weather “appears”."
