Should I buy BREXIT?

[sacbnc]

Hi all,

I am contemplating Brexit and the trading opportunities it might bring. I am anticipating opportunities based on the bias that the price move might reflect the below:

1) The price move will be very large because the event is of high importance
2) The price move might start a short/mid/long-term trend

I understand that there will be a lot of volume in the market around the event and thus to expect volatility. I understand that a good entry with confirmation will be needed, especially once initial spikes have settled.

My understanding is that Brexit will have the following impact on GBP and/or EUR:

BRITAIN OUT: GBP & EUR GO DOWN
BRITAIN IN: GBP & EUR GO UP

I'm operating myself with the bias that Britain are going to stay in the EU. I am not educated to the standard that would constitute an informational bullish bias, but consider the probability of us staying in to be greater than 50% simply because the key stakeholders want to (Britain and the EU).

My expectation is that Brexit could supply a large return if traded well.

1) Should I buy/sell Brexit at all?
2) Is the probability of the major move starting a mid/long-term trend high or worth contemplating?
3) Is my understanding of the impact on Brexit correct or very unlikely?

 

[tomorton]

Agree with your estimation that probable result will be a stay in vote. So do the bookies, all the major political parties, nearly all economists, all our friendly trading partners and strategic allies, the PM and majority of the cabinet, plus the leader of HM opposition.

As far as trading on the result, assuming a remain result, there could be a very immediate relief rally in GBP and EUR. Long-term this will be meaningless. Trends will develop according to the political process that follows and what the government does about the referendum result - so, e.g.
will Cameron be inclined to use the result to storm into Brussels looking for a better membership deal?
will it strengthen or weaken Cameron?
will it strengthen/weaken his party?
will there be a rebellion within his party?
what will happen to the opposition?
what will the disappointed voters do?
what will the opposition do?
will the result be sufficiently strong to destroy Brexit hopes?
what will other grumbling EU members do if there's only a marginal UK Remain win?

All rather unknowable right now. But I do know there will be plenty of opportunities for EUR/GBP traders long after 23/06.

 

[arigoldman]

Remember what happened with the Swiss Gold referendum. REMEMBER.

 

[Splitlink]

Hi all,

I am contemplating Brexit and the trading opportunities it might bring. I am anticipating opportunities based on the bias that the price move might reflect the below:

1) The price move will be very large because the event is of high importance
2) The price move might start a short/mid/long-term trend

I understand that there will be a lot of volume in the market around the event and thus to expect volatility. I understand that a good entry with confirmation will be needed, especially once initial spikes have settled.

My understanding is that Brexit will have the following impact on GBP and/or EUR:

BRITAIN OUT: GBP & EUR GO DOWN
BRITAIN IN: GBP & EUR GO UP

I'm operating myself with the bias that Britain are going to stay in the EU. I am not educated to the standard that would constitute an informational bullish bias, but consider the probability of us staying in to be greater than 50% simply because the key stakeholders want to (Britain and the EU).

My expectation is that Brexit could supply a large return if traded well.

1) Should I buy/sell Brexit at all?
2) Is the probability of the major move starting a mid/long-term trend high or worth contemplating?
3) Is my understanding of the impact on Brexit correct or very unlikely?

On this site, it depends on who you ask.

 

[jeffre4]

you think we stay in ? i would say its going to be a landslide out. May just be the people i know though

 

[kalott]

you think we stay in ? i would say its going to be a landslide out. May just be the people i know though

maybe three options

1) stay

2) leave immediately

3) leave in the future when the economy is better or something

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_nuclear_power_referendum,_1980

 

[barjon]

you think we stay in ? i would say its going to be a landslide out. May just be the people i know though

You better rush and get a bet on then, the bookies must've got their prices all wrong

 

[jeffre4]

You better rush and get a bet on then, the bookies must've got their prices all wrong

do not bet which is ironic really

 

[kalott]

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

 

[samfarrell]

Best of luck trying to trade any type of 'event'. The markets have a way of punishing those who think they know which way its going !
Your best off trying to sell the volatility that these events produce