Rolling Analysis on Forex Pairs

[5SS]

In this thread I will post on going analysis, trade ideas and suggestions and share some of the trades I am looking at taking.

A lot of the time this will be on majors but I do look at a broad spectrum of pairs and will comment on whatever I find most interesting at the time.

In most cases my analysis will be working on a larger timeframe basis with any trades that would be generated from it running for usually at least a day and sometimes several days/weeks.

All things posted here are my opinion only and should never be considered to be me directly advising you to make any trades or investments in the Forex or other markets.

Always use good risk control

 

[5SS]

AUDUSD Weekly Chart

As we are nearing the end of the week we have a bit of an engulfing candling forming on the AUDUSD.

This could be a sign we are in for a retracement and I will be having a bullish bias throughout the next week if we do close around or above CMP.

I might take a small position early in the week with my stop loss just under the currently established lows and a target in the 0.8322 area (from here I will be wanting to sell).

I will then be looking to use a bullish intraday trend trading strategy on this through the week if it begins to rise.

A new low would seem very bearish and I would probably be interested in selling in that case but that would require further analysis.

 

[5SS]

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Here I have marked out where I consider to be the bullsih breakout zone.

If we see a day candle closing over 0.82025 I will be looking for a retracement into the 0.7920 area and I will be adding small buy positions throughout that zone. I usually use a dollar cost averaging system and will open progressively bigger positions as the price gets more favorable (I will start out with a fixed percentage of total risk to be used and build up to having this)

My stop losses will all start under the range we will have broken over if this scenario is triggered but on my bigger lot buys close to the bottom of the zone will probably look to move stop losses into breakeven when we break above the breakout zone again.

Target will be the same area as indicated on the post above this one.

 

[5SS]

Going to place a buy limit on 0.7718 to pick it up if it retraces. Stop loss will be just under the lows around 120-130 pips.

The target will be at least the upper breakout zone.

 

[5SS]

Didn't come back.

Looking to pick up the dip on this retracement a bit further down

 

[5SS]

USDJPY Monthly Divergence

Huge divergence with OBV on the USDJPY monthly chart.

OBV, or On Balance Volume, divergence is considered (by the creator of the indicator) to be a sign of big money closing off their big holdings in small chunks and/or entering reversal positions.

The market is held up by enthusiastic buyers getting into the trend too late but there is overall more selling pressure and eventually a strong reversal will ensue.

OBV divergence like this can be an early warning to a shift in the trends direction.
If we make new highs on the USDJPY we expect to see price move into the range of 129 so any early sellers would be wise to use stop losses above the range highs.

 

[5SS]

Audusd

Still looking to pick up a retracement of AUDUSD