Putting to the test

[Tubbs]

Hi all,

Going through my usual low spot on the trading mind games - searching for some vein of hope. I'm sure you all have the same problem - unless you're successful that is!

Anyway I've been mulling over the fact of timing the markets. Traders say that:

1. You can have an equal risk/reward as long as you have positive expectation system. Some claim that 80% is good. Anyone care to show a 80% win rate on trades/entry?

2. Trading is mostly mental & is just down to discipline, but at the same time "no truly mechanical system can work, the markets just aren't like that". So one would suggest that you just have to follow your rules to be successful & just carry out your edge.

Trouble is I ain't found no edge - at least one that holds up.

It really is amazing how the data that I've looked at has almost nothing to give you a consistent profit, on any time scale. I think that in itself is quite amazing. Not to say that I don't spend every minute looking. One day I will find the answer.............won't I?

 

[bodebliss]

Don't trust any system.

Have a way of acquiring targets.

Go thru the same acquisition regime each time you trade.

Expect the market to drift back and forth across your entry point before going toward your target.

Study your market carefully don't go easily into trades.

Once in a trade, hold out for your aim.

Know your exit strategy well.

 

[Stockjunkie]

1. You have answered your own question . No one can show you an 80% win ratio , because in the long run it ain't possible . It may be in the very short term and / or with very loose risk control . The very notion of reward / risk ratio is bulit upon stop losses , thus if you have none or an extreme wide one then be definition your R:R is going to be very small and decreasing.

2. is true to a large degree , and but it is NOt easy to find an edge . Many who may think they have one are actually kidding themselves. Playing around breakeven is not worth the time unless of course that is what you are only after - a game . That case why not buy the latest version of X box and do the real thing .

the problem here is a psychcological one .