Public sector net debt is 62% of gdp £820bl...OUCH

B

Black Swan

These figures are scary, and they do not include the 'off the UK's balance sheet' financial interventions by the BOE and the govt. (from Oct 2008 onwards) implemented in order to "save the system"...

You know that famous Sun headline "will the last one out please switch the light off"? If you're young enough get out now (before the next Icelandic volcano pops :LOL: ) and don't look back.

IMHO this is not recoverable, two decades of pain await, inflation figures were bad early in the week, it won't go 'hyper', but we all know (and feel) inflation is far worse than 3-4.5%. Jobless figures yesterday were apalling, once the spin is removed. 5.1mil on "out of work benefits" and there's legions of unemployed undergraduates chasing entry level jobs paying 22K, (entry level was 15K 15 years ago) ...

Seriously if you're young and without ties just travel for a few years, try and nick a few pips to pay for the trip, better than being a debt slave...


Public Sector; Monthly: £14.8bn budget deficit

The public sector showed a deficit on current budget of £14.8 billion in March 2010, compared with a deficit of £12.0 billion in March 2009.

More generally, the public sector recorded deficits between 1991/92 and 1997/98 before moving into surplus in 1998/99. Deficits have been recorded since 2002/03.

An alternative measure of the public sector fiscal position is public sector net borrowing. This additionally takes account of capital investment. In March 2010, there was net borrowing of £23.5 billion, which compares with borrowing of £20.1 billion in March 2009. The forecast for 2010/11 is net borrowing of £156 billion.

Public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), was 62.0 per cent at the end of March 2010 compared with 52.9 per cent at end of March 2009. Net debt was £890.0 billion at the end of March compared with £742.3 billion a year earlier.

Public sector net borrowing (excluding financial interventions) was £35.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009-10, up from £26.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008-9.

Public sector net debt (excluding financial interventions) was £771.6 billion (equivalent to 53.8 per cent of GDP) at the end of March 2010. This compares to £617.0 billion (44.0 per cent of GDP) as at the end of March 2009.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206
 
Black Swan quote: "You know that famous Sun headline "will the last one out please switch the light off"? If you're young enough get out now (before the next Icelandic volcano pops :LOL: ) and don't look back"

Good advice. If you're young, professional and work in an internationally transferable field (eg. trading, plumbing etc.) leave now before it gets worse. UK is already debt-ridden, has no sense of where it's going and conditioned to think that everything that's wrong can be cured without pain.
 
I'll gladdly spare a few pips to pay for you miserable sods to leave the uk for a bit ;)

It may be pants, but its my pants and I'm proud of them........



....oO( yeah hello; I'd like a one way ticket to somewhere else please. )
 
SvenFoster said:
I'll gladdly spare a few pips to pay for you miserable sods to leave the uk for a bit ;)

It may be pants, but its my pants and I'm proud of them........



....oO( yeah hello; I'd like a one way ticket to somewhere else please. )
Click to expand...

I used to think like that but that was before I learned to stick to my stoplosses. Of course, where you place your stoploss & whether it's right, is another matter :)
 
I think the governments will be left with no choice but to use inflation to reduce the debt amount, which will mean a lot of pain for all. But for the moment the party continues and denial pervades - I think there is still enough liquidity in the system for the blinkers to stay on for some time yet. I don't expect any major setbacks in the foreseeable future - I think the correction is months if not years away at the moment.
 
For Wikipedia, this entry on stagflation isn't bad...

Economists offer two principal explanations for why stagflation occurs. First, stagflation can result when an economy is slowed by an unfavorable supply shock, such as an increase in the price of oil in an oil importing country, which tends to raise prices at the same time that it slows the economy by making production less profitable.[5][6][7] This type of stagflation presents a policy dilemma because actions that are meant to assist with fighting inflation might worsen economic stagnation and vice versa. Second, both stagnation and inflation can result from inappropriate macroeconomic policies. For example, central banks can cause inflation by permitting excessive growth of the money supply,[8] and the government can cause stagnation by excessive regulation of goods markets and labor markets,[9] Either of these factors can cause stagflation. Excessive growth of the money supply taken to such an extreme that it must be reversed abruptly can clearly be a cause. Extreme government policies which add considerably to costs, e.g., protectionist import duties, radical increases of environmental regulations or excessive increases in the minimum wage can also be a cause. Both types of explanations are offered in analyses of the global stagflation of the 1970s: it began with a huge rise in oil prices, but then continued as central banks used excessively stimulative monetary policy to counteract the resulting recession, causing a runaway wage-price spiral.[10]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
 
Gordon Brown's economic miracle calls for more immigrants(legal and illegal) , to boost housing market ,in turn boosts demand for construction industry and also to create public sector jobs to keep miracle boom going.

We can also set up some pimping businesses for Expenses ministers , and keep a few souls employed.

Oil set for $150 will soon get inflation tripling , and thats not in anybody's estimates.

O D T
 
I notice that Darling forecast a deficit of 166.5bio in the budget and the figure came in at 163.4bio, thus 3.1bio better than expected. Does this mean that he has taken 3.1bio out of the economy?
 
The UK won't wake up until the bailiffs come round and repossess the bed we're sleeping in. There is no electoral advantage in doing what's needed, as far too many people are taking far more than their worth from the public purse.

Have a look at Greece - rioting over pay freezes. That's our future.

Years ago, people might have jumped off the coach before it went into the canyon, even though this means having to walk back to town. They might even have reflected that they really didn't merit being driven about in the coach in the first place. Not now - people will cling to their unmerited rewards until the splat at the bottom.

Black Swan is overly optimistic and far too lenient on the UK in my opinion.

This is the link to today's Guardian jobs:

http://jobs.guardian.co.uk/jobs/environment/

A little taste at random:

Outreach Officer – Walpole Park

* LONDON BOROUGH OF EALING |
* Ealing |
* £21,232 - £22,538 pro rata

Senior Advisor - Climate Change

* THE HIGHWAYS AGENCY |
* Bedford |
* £37,309

Project Coordinator

* LONDON BOROUGH OF CAMDEN |
* £40,506 - £43,152

Senior Access Inclusion and Equalities Officer

* NORTHAMPTONSHIRE COUNTY COUNCIL |
* County Hall, Northampton |
* £29,236 - £31,754 pa
 
What the f-ck is a senior access inclusion officer?

This country really is screwed. The markets seem so sanguine about it all .. maybe we've already had our devaluation and they're looking elsewhere. As a country we're fairly pragmatic and this kind of nonsense has to stop at some point.. like the Irish, we'll take the pain and just deal with it. It's the hothead Latino/Club Med types who take to the streets, we're far too starchy for that.
 
bang on maiden-we need to cut out some of the utter crap in the public sector.
 
meanreversion said:
What the f-ck is a senior access inclusion officer?

This country really is screwed. The markets seem so sanguine about it all .. maybe we've already had our devaluation and they're looking elsewhere. As a country we're fairly pragmatic and this kind of nonsense has to stop at some point.. like the Irish, we'll take the pain and just deal with it. It's the hothead Latino/Club Med types who take to the streets, we're far too starchy for that.
Click to expand...

need a good revolution
 
This is just a slow motion train crash. I recall boring people many years ago about the explosion of employment in the public sector, and more insidiously, the pensions apartheid that exists. The vast majority of public sector employees will retire at 60 on their final salary pensions. No such luck in the private sector, where retirement age is 65 and most pension plans have lost money recently (plus annuity rates suck anyway).

I think the retirement age in Greece is 58, and in Germany it's 67.. so in effect the Germans are being asked to work an additional 9 years to support the Greeks. It's mind-boggling, you wonder where it all ends.

Hopefully this crisis will come to a head and the UK will sort itself out. Firstly we should pull out of the EU, saving billions and reducing red tape at a stroke. Norway and Switzerland manage quite happily outside of it, why can't we.. life will still go on. Then public sector needs to take 5-10 pct pay cut, and hiring freeze for next ten years.. this will gradually reduce the numbers.

Education needs to be fixed, we can't keep churning out illiterate idiots, it won't do.

Ten years from now, we'll start to reap the benefits from this, but it won't be easy. Thatcher's revolution took several years and it got ugly along the way.
 
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