Project Sagana Progress

[Project.Sagana]

Hello fellow traders! My name is Rap and I started Project Sagana. I want to build up my $6K account trading equites. I will keep my journals in here, so that I can seek some advice from those who are experience. I am willing to learn the correct way to be profitable. I've been trading since last year and I'm current down $3000 from the $8K I started last year. But now I am more willing than ever. I know I may get some discouraging comments because of amount I lost or how small my account is. I already made a commitment to be successful at having a trading career.

Project Sagana Rules:
12/12/12
Account size: $6101.91
Max risk per trade, < 2% of $6K or < $120
Risk/Reward Ratio per trade, 3:1
Swing Trader just because of the Pattern Day Trader limit

My rules for BUYING:
1. Only buy at healthy DEMAND ZONES
2. Always buy at a relatively LOW price
3. Do not buy out of nowhere
4. Do not buy at a relatively high price, wait for a dip retracement
5. ONLY BUY at DEMAND ZONES

My rules for SELLING:
1. Only sell at healthy SUPPLY ZONES
2. Always sell at a relatively HIGH price
3. Do no sell out of nowhere
4. Do not sell at a relatively low price, wait for a small rally
5. ONLY SELL at SUPPLY ZONES

 

[Project.Sagana]

Here is SD, I entered SD hoping it would go up. On the daily time frame it's hitting a supply zone. But right now it looks like it's basing. On a smaller time frame, It looks like it's stuck between $6.80 to $7.00 for the past days.

I entered this trade two days ago at $6.84, hoping for it to go down. I actually I shouldn't hope, but I noticed my self anxious making this trade. I was trading emotionally, when I trade I should have a rational decision on it that everyone could see and not subjective but objective. For this trade I was lucky because I got out the next day slightly lower than the price I entered in.

Here's a JCP trade I woke up and entered immediately went back to sleep today. I broke a lot of my rules. Including my share size, my max loss and my entry of the position. I went long, but I got stopped out and lost $130 on this trade, and then by the end of the day it went above $19.

 

[redtag12]

Here is SD, I entered SD hoping it would go up. On the daily time frame it's hitting a supply zone. But right now it looks like it's basing. On a smaller time frame, It looks like it's stuck between $6.80 to $7.00 for the past days.

I entered this trade two days ago at $6.84, hoping for it to go down. I actually I shouldn't hope, but I noticed my self anxious making this trade. I was trading emotionally, when I trade I should have a rational decision on it that everyone could see and not subjective but objective. For this trade I was lucky because I got out the next day slightly lower than the price I entered in.

Here's a JCP trade I woke up and entered immediately went back to sleep today. I broke a lot of my rules. Including my share size, my max loss and my entry of the position. I went long, but I got stopped out and lost $130 on this trade, and then by the end of the day it went above $19.

Hi good Morning,i,ve been looking at your rational for the two trades you have taken.To be honest i would not of taken either trade.First both the stocks are consolidating so price could go either way,volumes are low,you are using a 10,and 15 min charts which is ok but what are the longer time frame charts doing where is the trend going.This demand zone what is that about?As you can see at your demand zone! there is support and if you look further along the chart you can see the price has hit the support and bounced for want of a better word and then consolidated.This trade is a no brainer.You need a trading plan and a decent strategy one that give a consistant profit and you will have losing trades still.Go and learn to trade correctly and use demo accounts to practice leave your money in the bank you will lose it all trading the way you are trading;.Good luck.Mike

 

[MANINYELLOWHAT]

one qs i have. Did u use all of your timeframe(s) to make your decision?

 

[MANINYELLOWHAT]

you need to use your t/f(s)together. where am i as far as the higher t/f(s)? where is the momo of the higher t/f(s) vs the shorter t/f(s)? where is the higher t/f (s) as far as in the course of its progression relative to where it is and its momo ? is this the first test of support gained/ lost by the PRIOR move I am CURRENTLY retracing? ..too many times traders discount the momo of the higher t/f(s) and where it is as far as its progression. If the bigger t/f has hit a sig level NOT tested. it has to turn the momo of the CURRENT move so it will be respected. it does this by exhausting what THE CURRENT move has gained/lost, i.e. by retracing, thus setting up the even BIGGER moves we witness. It does this, by using the smaller timeframe(s), each subsequent higher timeframe's momo thus gets impacted thus setting up the BIG move(s) you see on the higher t/f... ergo on just using your example i saw using the 15min..could see the S gained by the PRIOR move up that had NOT been tested. Thus the expectation would be for it to pop on a first touch cos of the PRIOR move up . Again this is based strictly on the 15min chart u showed, I could not see the higher t/f(s). This kind of price action, the progression, forms your common patterns, by the mkts testing sig s lost/gained while respecting the higher t/f momo and where it is. If you want more info I know of one good blog that is free and may be of some help. KEWLTECH


:clap:

 

[MANINYELLOWHAT]

you need to use your t/f(s)together. where am i as far as the higher t/f(s)? where is the momo of the higher t/f(s) vs the shorter t/f(s)? where is the higher t/f (s) as far as in the course of its progression relative to where it is and its momo ? is this the first test of support gained/ lost by the PRIOR move I am CURRENTLY retracing? ..too many times traders discount the momo of the higher t/f(s) and where it is as far as its progression. If the bigger t/f has hit a sig level NOT tested. it has to turn the momo of the CURRENT move so it will be respected. it does this by exhausting what THE CURRENT move has gained/lost, i.e. by retracing, thus setting up the even BIGGER moves we witness. It does this, by using the smaller timeframe(s), each subsequent higher timeframe's momo thus gets impacted thus setting up the BIG move(s) you see on the higher t/f... ergo on just using your example i saw using the 15min..could see the S gained by the PRIOR move up that had NOT been tested. Thus the expectation would be for it to pop on a first touch cos of the PRIOR move up . Again this is based strictly on the 15min chart u showed, I could not see the higher t/f(s). This kind of price action, the progression, forms your common patterns, by the mkts testing sig s lost/gained while respecting the higher t/f momo and where it is. If you want more info I know of one good blog that is free and may be of some help. KEWLTECH


:clap:

That was in reference to your JCP 15m chart. IMHO. Last but not least, u should set your stop according to where u r technically wrong NOT BY A $$$ amount. Too many times I have seen peeps, myself included, place stops according to a $$$ amount vs technically where the mkt says u r wrong and then witness exactly what u did. Been there done that. Your stop should have been below the congestion to the left of the high where the gap above it to the right occurred.

 

[wackypete2]

That was in reference to your JCP 15m chart. IMHO. Last but not least, u should set your stop according to where u r technically wrong NOT BY A $$$ amount. Too many times I have seen peeps, myself included, place stops according to a $$$ amount vs technically where the mkt says u r wrong and then witness exactly what u did. Been there done that. Your stop should have been below the congestion to the left of the high where the gap above it to the right occurred.

I agree with everything you said but I'd like to add that if he wanted to use a specific $$ amount as a stop then he should adjust the trade size so that a properly placed stop would then result in the correct $$ loss he was willing to accept.

Peter

 

[MANINYELLOWHAT]

I agree with everything you said but I'd like to add that if he wanted to use a specific $$ amount as a stop then he should adjust the trade size so that a properly placed stop would then result in the correct $$ loss he was willing to accept.

Peter

agree..adjust trade size to $$$ amount willing to lose based on where technically the trade is deemed wrong.

 

[Project.Sagana]

QQQ Short

Guys thanks for the feedback. I now set my position size based on the difference between, my entry and stop loss. That way I am limited to my losses.

Here's a table that I made on MS Excel
Share Size VS Max Risk

My first trade of the year was a profit. Not much but I'm happy with it, it could have been better but here's my logic to it.

QQQ Short on Jan 2
I shorted QQQ on a supply zone. The overall trend of the market is bullish from a yearly perspective, so it is best to join the wave when the market is down short-term, and ride to impulse back up.

However this trade is a counter-trend trade. Most experts recommend to avoid trades like this for beginners like me, but I get it the concept of it. It's weird. I entered the short with only 100 shares because it is a bullish market. In a bullish market, the downward short-term move is slower compared to the fast upward short term move and vice-versa. I set up my stop loss just above the supply zone.

So I got in the trade. It's going my way, so I'm happy with it. I set my target at 65.60 which is just above the demand zone I identified (origin of powerful upward move). So as I watch it slowly up and down with a intraday short term bearish sentiment, I'll be honest my emotions feel like a roller coaster.

So here:

A few days later, I got out of the trade. It's a profit. I spotted a flag-pattern and I researched it right way. As I learned, flag pattern act as continuation patterns. There was a strong upward move prior to this flag pattern. I drew my lines and when I saw it broke above the lines I got out. Yes, first made my profit!

I made my profit, but I didn't stick to the plan. My plan was to get out at 65.60
Was my mind being controlled by my emotions? Or was my logic getting out of this trade was a way to justify my emotions I was feeling. When I saw that flag-pattern I thought of the market going up. As it turns outs, the Qs drop even more. I know I'm not suppose to talk or think about such phrase: "I could've made more money" or etc.

I think since I know more about supply and demand trade system, I should trust it more. There was a new supply zone created just above the current price above. But I wasn't comfortable of it holding the price down because I saw the pattern. I need to remember that the only reason the market moves is because of supply and demand orders, not because of moving averages, oscillators, or chart patterns.

What do you guys think of how I managed this trade I shorted on the QQQ?

And this one I entered this trade today: MYL LONG

MYL (LONG)
Perfect candidate for a long and its current circumstances when I entered long.
Long term trend was up. The arrival of the price entering the demand zone was marvelous. It gapped down to the demand zone. I'm expecting the price to bounce up from this.

The big picture? The price is dropping but should not go lower than the previous low.So I went long.

I'll take a snap shot of the picture after the market close and post the result of the trade here.

Things I know I did correctly:
1. Sell at the supply zone on QQQ
2. Bought at the demand zone on MYL
3. Correct share size
4. Correct stop loss

Learning experiences:
1.Calm down watching the market, just let it do it's thing
2. STICK TO THE PLAN! That's the only way I'll be consistent with any trade system

Trades:
1-3-13 Sold Short QQQ 100x @ 67.2137
1-7-13 Bought Cover QQQ 100x @65.6569 WIN

 

[Project.Sagana]

1-8-13 MYL Long Loss

So that trade was a loss. I learned my lesson. I definitely need to leave some space for the price to wiggle between the bases I identify and my stop loss. This is the second time that happened to me, where my sentiment of the market is right, but I would get stopped out.

In this case, the price just went below my stop loss before turning up.

Even though I lost that trade, I'm still satisfied with the timing of the market.

"There is no such thing as failure, only feedback."

 

[Project.Sagana]

1-10-13 MYL Sell Short Limit Order

Here's a set up that I hope to get filled.

and

this is the QQQ and how I relate to MYL current price action

 

[Project.Sagana]

And.... I got stopped out again.The trade above was a loss. I now only have 1 day trading left until next thursday to a full 3 because of the pattern day trader limit.

I was wrong. How should I take this? Well I'm glad I'm using appropriate position sizing. Even though I lost I still have some to play with. I will analyze the chart later and what I did wrong.

Any suggestions for this stock or advice on how I trade this position?

MYL ANALYSIS

I'm a bit undecided for this stock as well as the investors and traders that had a transaction dealing with this equity. We all have different analysis and reasons, but mine is that. This is a very bullish stock, it's good, so I should be focusing buying on the pullbacks and expect a continue rising. As it did today, it stopped me out, made a new high, although it closed near the opening price.

I know a doji on top represents a high probability of a reversal trend of direction. Also at the same time, I back tested where a few dojis in the same chart and might have some reaction to that but not significant moves. The price is on the supply zone in the weekly time frame. Bigger time frames have greater reliability as longer time takes larger amount of orders to move a price.

Again I'm a bit undecided on this one. I didn't make a play after my loss today, but my bias opinion based on my analysis and what I read is my guess that it's going to gap down and drop even lower.

 

[Project.Sagana]

This is a trade from my Metatrader 4 Demo Account. It's a profit using supply and demand method.

My entry was on 1-4-13

I got filled today for a profit

 

[Project.Sagana]

1-10-13 After Thoughts

Today was a loss in my real account and a win in my demo account. But overall I feel productive and understanding what was happening. I know these losses are part of my learning experience. Failure is part of success. I just got to keep on going and learning. I truly enjoy analyzing these price action and I think that will give an edge to push me forward to have consistent results.

I'm going to reframe all my losses as part of trading and only feedbacks. I sort of think of them as expenses just as with any business, you need spend some. I really believe that I will be successful at this. It's fun. Haha I visualize cashing out already by the end of the year.

 

[Project.Sagana]

1-16-13 MYL Results

And.... I got stopped out again.The trade above was a loss. I now only have 1 day trading left until next thursday to a full 3 because of the pattern day trader limit.

I was wrong. How should I take this? Well I'm glad I'm using appropriate position sizing. Even though I lost I still have some to play with. I will analyze the chart later and what I did wrong.

Any suggestions for this stock or advice on how I trade this position?

MYL ANALYSIS

I'm a bit undecided for this stock as well as the investors and traders that had a transaction dealing with this equity. We all have different analysis and reasons, but mine is that. This is a very bullish stock, it's good, so I should be focusing buying on the pullbacks and expect a continue rising. As it did today, it stopped me out, made a new high, although it closed near the opening price.

I know a doji on top represents a high probability of a reversal trend of direction. Also at the same time, I back tested where a few dojis in the same chart and might have some reaction to that but not significant moves. The price is on the supply zone in the weekly time frame. Bigger time frames have greater reliability as longer time takes larger amount of orders to move a price.

Again I'm a bit undecided on this one. I didn't make a play after my loss today, but my bias opinion based on my analysis and what I read is my guess that it's going to gap down and drop even lower.

This is what happened days after reaching the supply zone on the week. I didn't make that play because I was on my day limit pattern trader. If I did and I was wrong, meaning getting stopped out on the same day, my broker is obligated to freeze my account for 90 days or I fund my account to reach the $25K minimum day trader.

 

[Project.Sagana]

1-15-13 EURJPY Trade Loss

My entry and and my reasons for it.

EURJPY Hourly Time Frame

EURJPY 30 Min Time Frame

My question is: Why is the lower demand zone was the turning point instead of the one I picked above which had a strong move up in price?

 

[Project.Sagana]

The pair EURUSD might have quality shorting opportunities for a medium term trade.
On the daily trend, the pair has been bullish since July 2012. In the bigger time frame, it has been bearish since 2008. It's forming a descending triangle, although this triangle is preceded by a long term up trend, so this might not breakout on the downside. (I've witness a stock break out on the upside after forming a descending triangle pattern in a larger bullish context). But I've read somewhere the statistics for descending triangle are 66% breakouts down side.

Right now the price action sits on the supply zone I identified on the daily time frame. It's also hitting the upper resistance trend line I drew on the weekly time frame.

I think on the H4 time frame price action is on a sideways trend, buying and selling pressures are in a relatively tight range trying to decide on whether to continue the bullish trend since July 2012 or to reverse up trend.

In my opinion, this pair is more likely to drop down and find support in the 1.2000 and 1.1500 area. I'll go short on this pair when it reaches 1.339478 and place my stop above 1.35112 and we'll see.

What do you guys think?