Yes the 1st target is the support line which I draw. Risk is greater, but the strategy is all about banking little profits and at the end you get an edge on the market because it is high probability trading.
Hi LukasR
I really wish you well with this trade on the EU - BUT - its no high probability and its certainly high risk.
I appreciate you have been trading for 4 years and you may have found this method successful - but if you have - its been through pure luck rather than through skill and probability theory.
For a start - you are willing to risk over what 230 + pips for a stop for a target of only 70 -80 pips.
So instead having a positive RR of 1+ ideally 2 or 3 - with your stop being 80 and your target 200+ pips - its the other ways around meaning you will have to depend on high success rates ie over 75% to make any money.
But to get 75%+ success rates of a weekly or monthly chart - is nearly the same as "fortune telling" - ie reading the future from tea leaves or some other silly method like fridge magnets
The only way to obtain high on ongoing win ratios is short term - as there are less variables etc etc - ie you can guess the weather the next 5 -15 mins or so - but if I asked you to say what will it be like in 5 days or 12 days time - its impossible to be as accurate.
Next point - the trade is inefficient - more like an investment type bet - than a proper day or swing trade. That could mean you could be stuck in a drawdown for a few days or weeks etc and then if you are successful and it does hit your target - in the next few days - or weeks - then its hardly a great return etc.
I personally aim for trades with RR's over 1 and above 2 within 15 minutes - allowing me great efficiency to grow my account or take the profit.
Also if you have tied say 2% of your capital into this one trade and it does take 2 weeks to come to fruition - you have lost other opportunities that could have a lot higher probability in just a day or two.
I really look forward to you posting your next 20 trades - although I hope that's not going to take 6+ months or longer - and if you do get 80% success rate then fine stay with what works for you - but personally - I can only see only one result for this method over this year - and thats not good.
I hope I am wrong - and i wish you well
Good Luck
Regards
F
