As price consolidates the question is always, how will it break from the consolidation?
The answer is that the Net New Commercial Trade or net buying and selling during the consolidation will usually tell the story.
The first chart (below) shows an hour and a half from yesterday's (May4) trade where price was flat and yet the net trade showed decided accumulation and the result was a quick breakout to the upside. The second graph below represent trade on 12/16/2008 in the hours before and immediately after a Fed announcement.
The bottom window on both charts is our calculation of Net New Trade and is reset at midnight PST. Primarily we use this to determine the net longs or shorts for the session but it also is a very good measure of intra-session net accumulation/distribution.
In the first chart not that price was flat between 1120 - 1250 PST while NetNewCommercialTrade showed net accumulation of 16k contracts and - presto - a breakout to the upside. The hour and a half consolodation offered multiple opportunities to scalp and a number of opportunities to get long for the foretold breakout to the upside.
Notice in the second chart that in the hours before the announcement (which came just after 1100 PST) price was completely flat and traded whithin narrow and well defined boundaries. During that same 4 hour period before 1100 Net New Trade demonstraded steady accumulation.
This is a further demonstration of how different measures of buying and selling power do a better job of predicting price than price base indicators such as CCI, MA, EMA, Stochastics, RSI, Bollinger Bands......
While the chart below shows almost a whole session the same indications are present in micro intra-session time frames for all of these indicators.
An hour and a half of flat price & the breakout from yesterday's trade:
Here is an example of the clues that are often available pre-news. In this case this was the run up to an announcement by the Fed:
The answer is that the Net New Commercial Trade or net buying and selling during the consolidation will usually tell the story.
The first chart (below) shows an hour and a half from yesterday's (May4) trade where price was flat and yet the net trade showed decided accumulation and the result was a quick breakout to the upside. The second graph below represent trade on 12/16/2008 in the hours before and immediately after a Fed announcement.
The bottom window on both charts is our calculation of Net New Trade and is reset at midnight PST. Primarily we use this to determine the net longs or shorts for the session but it also is a very good measure of intra-session net accumulation/distribution.
In the first chart not that price was flat between 1120 - 1250 PST while NetNewCommercialTrade showed net accumulation of 16k contracts and - presto - a breakout to the upside. The hour and a half consolodation offered multiple opportunities to scalp and a number of opportunities to get long for the foretold breakout to the upside.
Notice in the second chart that in the hours before the announcement (which came just after 1100 PST) price was completely flat and traded whithin narrow and well defined boundaries. During that same 4 hour period before 1100 Net New Trade demonstraded steady accumulation.
This is a further demonstration of how different measures of buying and selling power do a better job of predicting price than price base indicators such as CCI, MA, EMA, Stochastics, RSI, Bollinger Bands......
While the chart below shows almost a whole session the same indications are present in micro intra-session time frames for all of these indicators.
An hour and a half of flat price & the breakout from yesterday's trade:
Here is an example of the clues that are often available pre-news. In this case this was the run up to an announcement by the Fed:
