Pinguin's account No. 5

[pingvin123]

One of my many problems is that I can't remember trades taken on Demo account, so I am learning live... I have blown 4 accounts, about 1k each, yes it hurts, yes, I can afford it.

My wife is laughing at me, my dog is barking at me, my boss is yelling at me, my ex-signal provider invited me on his forum but then deleted a thread where I posted most (I guess I was getting more pips then he was, that's why he is EX). Most of my trades will be taken on Acer Aspire One (very small screen), and on super slow wireless connection that has a habit of dropping when you need it most. Market is choppy. My English sucks. But hey, who is counting the pressure?!

I finally abandoned the idea about my first million. I am going to double or nothing.

Stick around, take bets on how long it will take me to blown the 5th account, have fun, comment like crazy, spare no arrows!

Due to the hardware limitations I can only trade one pair. GBPJPY it is. And I can only post charts at the end of the day when I am at home, so no setups. Very rarely I will trade something else. Starting capital about 606 bucks, trading 1$/pip. Price Action mostly, breakouts, no indicators except some EMAs (20,53,153,512), 1H chart but I'll look at all charts to make decision. Risking less then 10% per trade, I'll lower it if my capital increases. TP will be set considering daily range or dynamic on EMAs or pivot zone. Starting date: January 2011. Enjoy Christmas and Happy New Year!

 

[tomorton]

Hi pingvin123 - At least you have a wife! At least you have a dog! At least you have a job! And anyone who can write 'My English sucks', though it is crude and an Americanism, actually has pretty good English.

But do you have a plan? Trading breakouts is tough.

 

[Triggerfish]

Pingvin123, your first paragraph says it all, you have done demo accounts but can't remember the trades therefore you have learned nothing. So you decide to use real money to learn, you should be well aware the results will be the same, as you have confirmed 4 previous failed accounts, it is easy to conclude that your 5th account will have the same fate in due course.

People in this world will keep on repeating the same process over and over again but expecting a different result!

 

[pingvin123]

Hi pingvin123 - At least you have a wife! At least you have a dog! At least you have a job! And anyone who can write 'My English sucks', though it is crude and an Americanism, actually has pretty good English.

But do you have a plan? Trading breakouts is tough.

Hi! Thank you for your kind words! Can you elaborate what you mean by trading plan? Is there a template I could use? Now that you mentioned it I think I saw on some forum traders explaining details about each trade they took and they provided a lot of answers to a lot of pre-designed questions (about 20 if I recall correctly). ... I do have rules, but they are flexible. I think it is crazy to always and in every trade risk the same amount of pips (50 for example). Sometimes I would risk 15 sometimes maybe even 60, it all depends on situation. The same goes for TP.

Breakouts...I am not sure what to say here. I probably don't have enough experience to see it tough. Price makes a triangle, price breaks triangle, you enter and risk 15-20 pips. I am going to give an example in GBPJPY few days ago (it was that day when Koreans started shooting at each other). If I recall correctly this was 5M chart, nice triangle formation. I wanted to enter at 132.65 but then all Hell broke loose due to the Koreans, price spiked up/down/up 40+ pips. Eventually it made 4H bearish pin bar, which technically speaking would brake at 132.65 area and would be valid short. Price then dropped over 180 pips. I didn't take it because my pants were full of "kaka" due to Koreans craziness .

There was one breakout that I did take a few days later, I am not sure how many pips I risked, but was not many, probably 20 pips. I opened 2 trades, results were 126 +71 pips :smart:: As you can see I opened position cca 2 hours after the breakout, at that time I just woke up and turned computer on and there it was an opportunity

 

[pingvin123]

Pingvin123, your first paragraph says it all, you have done demo accounts but can't remember the trades therefore you have learned nothing. So you decide to use real money to learn, you should be well aware the results will be the same, as you have confirmed 4 previous failed accounts, it is easy to conclude that your 5th account will have the same fate in due course.

People in this world will keep on repeating the same process over and over again but expecting a different result!

Hey Triggerfish! Thank you for your input! I knew that results will be the same. I knew I will lose money. I had no doubt about that! Still it hurt like an earthquake. But(!) demo account simply does not provide enough adrenalin for me and it doesn't focus me, I would say this is because I have to be quite focused at my work and I usually work about 12 hours a day. And you know very well that a good demo trader does not necessary mean successful live trader, right?

I however learned something from every account lost, and this is where I disagree with you. When I started first account I had no idea what MT4 is, what sup/res is, what fibo is, what price action is... I was trading with a broker with such a "kaka" platform that my head hurts even now, I couldn't log in, I couldn't change TP,SL, active trades disappeared from the terminal, price spikes, price different by 10 pips compared to major brokers... My second account was filled with indicators, I tried 2 robots, I was still looking at the small time frames - all this is now a BIG no-no. Then third account with a signal provider. Big mistake, I was trading many pairs instead of focusing on one or two, but at least I started looking at the 'bigger picture', I just didn't know what to do with it. My fourth account was almost without indicators (except EMAs, MACD and Stoc), I started learning price action and I was doing relatively well on 1H chart until I decided to shift from 1H to Daily chart. SL got bigger, I got greedy, stubborn, unpatient, mad, angry, sad, faithful... I learned firsthand how emotions can be deadly for trading.

I have no expectations for my 5th account. For what I learned until now is that you never stop learning, so we'll see if what I learned is sufficient for account to stand or maybe there is more to be learned. PLEASE(!) do not hesitate to hit me with reality if you will see that I am fooling myself! This is THE reason I started Journal. Your input is very well appreciated and I have utmost respect for senior traders.

 

[barjon]

http://www.trade2win.com/knowledge/first-steps/articles/general_articles/trading-plan-template/

 

[pingvin123]

Thank you Barjon! I quickly scanned through the document and it seems most of the things there I thought about. I will read it carefully in a few days when my vacation time starts. If anyone has any good suggestion for reading material on price action, please, go ahead and make my day! I was thinking of finally getting Nial Fuller seminar (he surprised by giving 40% off), but then again, he has so much free stuff already on the web page and I still didn't go through not even 10 percent of James16 stuff. I'll be all in charts during the holidays, lol.

 

[barjon]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-discussion/69838-bbmacs-gbpusd-thread.html

 

[pingvin123]

I chickened about trading in December, again I am listening to other people too much. Looking at the chart there would be several wining days. Of course it is easy to be smart after price already did it's moves, but it gives me confidence to trade next year in December as well.

On the side note, I briefly compared Volume and Daily Range for GBP/JPY for 4 years. It seems that Volume started increasing in the second half of 2010 (if this volume meter from MT4 is anyhow correct), especially we see increase in September-December.

Daily Range (high/low) seems to decrease in 2010 compared to other 3 years, but pair is also much less spiky. I wonder if there is a correlation between the two (bigger volume = more stable pair).

Blue line = 2007
Red line = 2008
Yelow line = 2009
Green line = 2010

 

[pingvin123]

It seems I will only have the time to update my log at the end of every week. I will present worst and best trade of the week. This week was a disaster.

Here comes excuses ... I was so much over burdened with distractions/obligations at work and at home that I missed the Monday's daily pin. When I realized this Tuesday morning (when most of the move after the pin was already done) I was swearing out loud like never before.This is the critical point in psychology where you just have to walk away and not chase the price. This had an impact on me the whole week, I just couldn't let it go. I am a pin trader and you just don't miss the opportunity like this!

So the first trade that I took was forced, angry and a loss, entry was to soon and I didn't give the price enough room to breath (punishing myself ??). If I would play by the rules, first trade would not be the loss but +60 pip.

Pictures: Missed daily pin bar, my entry would be above the marked 1H pin bar, my TP would actually be 20 EMA on Daily. Price bounced from 20 EMA on Daily and made 1H pin bar, this is the one that I traded (first trade) but I didn't give it enough room to breath. My TP was 53 EMA on 4H which would give cca 60 pip profit:

Wednesday was a good day, one trade for 80,4 pips, played by the rules.

Another view on 4H chart:

After that 3 Break Even trades made me frustrated and they reminded me about Monday's and Tuesday's screw up. NFP, I was already 40 pip profit, but I expected good numbers. Price crashed and took me out on Break Even. I was so pissed that again I forced myself into a trade without following the rules exactly (again punishing myself ??) 50 pip loss instead of profit.

Week 1 stats:
Kapital: 622,18 USD
Kapital increase: 2,58 %
Pip count neto: +13,2
Profit factor: 1,17
State of the mind: I think I need to see a Schrink

 

[tomorton]

For improving your state of mind, see The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. In fact, it's worth reading even for those who think their mind doesn't need it.

 

[pingvin123]

Thanks tomorton! I just read through first 20 pages, looks awesome book!

 

[pingvin123]

Another week is slowly finishing. This was one crazy week

My wireless internet connection was dropping like drunk, today about 40 times, it always took minimum 2,5 minutes to come back in to MT4, just to drop after a few seconds. In house "IT team" went on "seminar" and they closed down one of the WiFi points I was using recently so I was struggling hard with my slow wireless. I'll go tomorrow and see if I can get a wireless from another provider, this one has a technical response time of a dead dog...

My mouse went nuts, whether it registered two clicks or unpressed click, but absolutely not one click only So I got a new mouse, Logitech G700 - and I am very sorry that I bought it. I can only assign two additional buttons to scripts in MT4 (wheel button and one front button), 7 additional buttons are non responsive in MT4, I have no idea why. The 4 side buttons are very soft, rubber like, they make no CLICK sound and can be accidentally pressed just by moving mouse around. I'll try to solve this mystery tomorrow...

I was going through my bookmarks yesterday and found one with an interesting title - Most predictable currency pair. There were many DIFFERENT thoughts which one is best, but they ALL agree on the WORST pair, being GBP JPY, the one that I am trading, lol, that is a seat back for me as I am still learning and I am only trading this pair. But the idea is that if I can survive this choppy market and this crazy pair and this enormous psychological pressure from the environment, then I can do a lot in my life.

The thing that kept me sane this week is ... no lost trades this week! And I am not going to trade tomorrow. Or maybe I will ...GBPJPY will probably hit 153 EMA on Daily tomorrow.

This week I got 2 BE trades, then 2 smaller trades (that should be one trade but I accidentally pressed a script that closed first one and I reentered for a few pips), then 2 small trades that I refused to let them slide back to BE (one was counter trend), and today's trade, relatively nice. Price bounced from a pivot zone, there was also a Daily Pivot, there was also a 20 EMA on 1H chart and 512 EMA on 4H chart, all at approximately same place. Pair moved today 93 pips (for now), I took out 58 pips.

Week 2 stats:
Kapital: 772,80 USD
Kapital increase this week: 24,21 %
Kapital increase this month (2 weeks): 27,41 %
Pip count neto this month (2 weeks): +138,2
Profit factor: 2,85 (lol, if this would stay like this the whole year)
State of the mind: RED

 

[pingvin123]

So I woke up in the morning and look at the charts, price dropped quite well, but not enough for me to take it. I wanted it to touch 20 EMA on 4H, but it didn't want to, it started shooting up-up-up indicating that it doesn't want to go down anymore, so I went back to sleep. When I woke price actually went where I wanted it to go on the first place, bounced and run up for more than 50 pips. Men was I pissed, the news followed and were good for GBP so I entered for a few (7,5) pips. I didn't want price to hit my BE, but if I would let it breath more, then more pips could be made on the way up.

Anyway, new stats for week 2:
Kapital: 781,85 USD
Kapital increase this week: 25,66 %
Kapital increase this month (2 weeks): 28,9 %
Pip count neto this month (2 weeks): +145,7
Profit factor: 2,95 (lol, if this would stay like this the whole year)
State of the mind: still RED

 

[pingvin123]

I decided to keep the mouse, I found out that window with scripts can be detached and can hover freely on the screen, and one extra mouse button can call or hide it, so I'll trade like this, I'll just grab the script and throw it into a chart when needed. GOW (Good Bye Order Window) works very nice, I simply don't need the keyboard anymore and I am literary trading from the chart.

Internet connection is a whole different story, second largest mobile internet provider in our country sucks big time, I went into 2 shops and sales personal was basically begging me not to take it, so I didn't. I will have a word with "in house IT department" about possibility that they leave one WiFi point open for me.

I know I said I will probably not trade today, but seeing price going for 153 EMA on Daily was just to much. I however picked the wrong entry. I was under impression that 131,4 is a resistance and I joined the party. Big mistake, price started drooping like my internet connection. But I wasn't scare, it still had potential to go toward 153 EMA and I was certain that 20 EMA on 1H would act as dynamic support. And then it passed by it and I made my pants dirty. 60 pip down. Luckily it was a false EMA breakout (this pair loves false breakouts it seems) and support was found on 153 EMA on 15M chart. Sharp down, sharp up, pair started loosing momentum so I closed it with 21 pip profit. I have no intention to drive it to 153 EMA on Daily chart, it is Friday and late in the afternoon.

On the 12. November 2010 (Friday) we had similar situation, price made 250+ pip in a day, but failed to touch 153 EMA on Daily by 30 pips. Possible situations for the next week are 3, sharp up and across and possible longer term uptrend, ranging for a few days or, most probable, continuation of downtrend.

This last trade of mine for the second week I have to classify as the worst. If price wouldn't pick up but stay there or fall further we would get a pin bar, upon which I would have little chance to close the trade in profit. So I will only increase lot size to 0,2 when I am well over 2k, if I ever get there.

Final stats for week 2:
Kapital: 807,03 USD
Kapital increase this week: 29,71 %
Kapital increase this month (2 weeks): 33,05 %
Pip count neto this month (2 weeks): +166,6 (GO AWAY SATAN!)
Profit factor: 3,23 (this is freaking me out now)
State of the mind: Ghostrider 3 (OK and ready).

Have a great weekend folks!

 

[pingvin123]

GBPJPY at the Trendline, will it reverse and fall 450 pips, with target 128.00 (approximately 61.8 fib extension) or brake the Trendline and 153 EMA and continue uptrend?

I heard today that Daihacu is moving out of European market, JPY currency to strong and they can't compete, apparently. I mean if not even Japanese believe anymore in market going in their favor...

 

[pingvin123]

I didn't post results of week 3 as I was in a trade and I don't want to give signals. Now that trades are over I can post.

Week 3 is so far away now, that I almost forgot what happened. I know that I noticed price formed a channel up and bounced from the lower trendline. I took it from there, price didn't reach my destination so I waited and took another long position next day, when price touched lower trendline again. This time it reached my TP at the 153 EMA area on a Daily chart. Price went further due to the good news for Pound. That was 17 and 18. th of January (Monday and Tuesday):

Wednesday price dropped out of bullish channel. On 1H it formed Bearish Outside bar. I entered before the retracement - those bars usually retrace to about half of the bar, so I put my Stop Loss relatively high. I noticed that price is forming down channel, so I closed the position and reentered short when it touched upper trendline. Exit on the 15 minut pin bar. Attaching 15 minute chart:

Next day I was ecstatic as week went very well! I saw several double bottoms (2 from that day and 2 from previous day and I opened long position (price was still in a down channel) thinking that quadruple bottom will overtake down channel and bounced price up to the Daily pivot. At start it looked that way, but all of a sudden price started dropping. It dropped down 20 pips when I decided that support will not hold. It was a mistake because I didn't read the correct price and I forgot that pivot ZONE IS ALWAYS A ZONE and NOT JUST SPECIFIC PRICE. I quickly closed long and opened short. Belive it or not, I went short on the very last pipette of the last pip. From there price just went up up up... I didn't close it as I did not believe that price will go once again to the trendline that is weeks long, so I opened another 2 short positions when price hit pivot zones. I let one hit SL, for the second one I moved SL higher. When price finally approached trendline I entered another short.

I have to say this was NOT a gambling. There were several clues that price is going to respect trendline and bounce back; double top on 1H, head and shoulders formation on 1H, "M" formation from the trendline on 1H, 153 strong EMA on Daily. So I have to say I was very relaxed when I left 3 open positions running at cca 150 and more pips in negative through the weekend. I actually dreamed that they made many pips.

Monday was a range day, pair moved about 45 pips, touched the trendline once again (see the chart below) and started dropping. Tuesday on the 4th week price started dropping heavily, then bad news came for British Pound and it just dropped. I closed the positions although I think it is heading to 128.00 area.This big drop was just to much for me psychologically, I started to be unfocused at my primary work, I started to shake, I was just to emotional and I didn't want to make any decisions when so much emotions were involved. Please observe interesting thing, initial push down was stopped at 512 EMA on 1H chart. Just a coincidence? I don't think so.

Week 3 stats:
Kapital: 1004,36 USD
Kapital increase this week: 24,45 %
Kapital increase this month (3 weeks): 65,59 %
Pip count neto this month (3 weeks): +329,1
Profit factor: 3,73
3 open trades...
State of the mind: (Market yelling at me: DINGO IS GONA EAT YOUR BABY!)

Week 4 stats (I will probably not trade anymore this week):
Kapital: 1.515,55 USD
Kapital increase this week: 50,90 %
Kapital increase this month (4 weeks): 149,87 %
Pip count neto this month (4 weeks): +752,4
Profit factor: 7,25 (this is really freaking me out now)
State of the mind: (Me yelling back at the market: DINGO EAT YOUR BABY!)

 

[advfntrader]

nice trading, how have you blown your previous accounts, a few large losses ? (running losses, moving stops), or just a number of bad trades at way too much risk per trade ?

 

[pingvin123]

nice trading, how have you blown your previous accounts, a few large losses ? (running losses, moving stops), or just a number of bad trades at way too much risk per trade ?

Thank you for your nice words!

I experienced all that you said, plus some more, see my post earlier in this thread where I talk about other 4 accounts:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/112046-pinguins-account-no-5-a.html#post1361140

It is a learning process :smart: and I am glad I rather quickly left behind me some things that many traders can't (dependency on indicators, dependency on signals, EA madness). Now I have to work on psychology.

 

[advfntrader]

and you HAVE learned a lot from your past accounts even although you didn't record trades. ALL of these trades will be in your memory and you have built up screen time and knowledge. Keep going, I am in the same situation as you and I will keep going until I get there !