Options Swing Trades

[WklyOptions]

Gd mng T2W members,

Here is my Jun 2014 - Swing Trade 1 - WYNN using a Reverse Diag Spread:

Trade Position:

Bought to Open (+1x) WYNN Jul(19th) $29 Calls ($4.15-$4.35)

Sold to Open (-1x) WYNN Sep(20th) $31 Calls ($5.55-$5.85)

Net Credit of (+$1.37) (x10) = (+$1370)

Initial Risk/Margin = (-$430) per spread (x10) = (-$4300)

Target = WYNN to attack Key Resistance at the $250 zone - but anywhere > $240 already should be profitable.

Duration = Recent pullback from 3/5/14 to low on 4/25/14 = about 7 wks. Long call purchased was the Jul(19th) expiry. I prefer to purchase the shortest expiry to minimize overspending on extrinsic time value.

Technical Analysis:

Filter: Monthly Chart = higher highs, higher lows = Bullish trend & momentum.
Indicators: MACD > 0 and also Fast Line (FL) is > Slow Line (SL)
Indicators: Price > Alligator MAs

Entry: Daily Chart = Pullback for about 7 wks duration - then higher highs, higher lows.
Indicators: Price > trendline break to the upside
Indicators: Price > Alligator MAs

Hope details and images clear enough for T2W readers to study & follow along.

Any questions and/or constructive comments? Post or PM is fine...

Thx.

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Gd mng T2W members,

Here is my Jun 2014 - Swing Trade 2 - APOL using a Reverse Diag Spread:

Trade Position:

Bought to Open (+1x) APOL Aug(16th) $29 Calls ($1.05-$1.13)

Sold to Open (-1x) APOL Nov(22nd) $31 Calls ($1.32-1.45)

Net Credit of (+$0.26) (x39) = (+$1014)

Initial Risk/Margin = (-$110) per spread (x39) = (-$4290)

Target = APOL to attack Key Resistance at the $35.90 zone - but anywhere > $31 already should be profitable.

Duration = Recent pullback from 4/1/14 to low on 5/22/14 = about 7 wks. Long call purchased was the Aug(16th) expiry. I prefer to purchase the shortest expiry to minimize overspending on extrinsic time value.

Technical Analysis:

Filter: Monthly Chart = higher highs, higher lows = Bullish trend & momentum.
Indicators: MACD < 0 and also Fast Line (FL) is > Slow Line (SL)
Indicators: Price > Alligator MAs

Entry: Daily Chart = Pullback for about 7 wks duration - then Double Bottom with bullish MACD divergence
Indicators: Price holding at Double Bottom Key Support at $26
Indicators: Price < Alligator MAs

Notes/Observations - The APOL technical monthly setup is less bullish (vs WYNN monthly setup) since the monthly MACD < 0. Likewise for the daily setup - where Price < Alligator MAs and daily MACD < 0.

However - the use of the Reverse Diagonal Spread provides strong defensive hedging should Price break below the $26 Key Support with Double Bottom formation.

Hope details and images clear enough for T2W readers to study & follow along.

Any questions and/or constructive comments? Post or PM is fine...

Thx.

WklyOptions

 

[jayouds08]

Gd mng T2W members,

Here is my Jun 2014 - Swing Trade 1 - WYNN using a Reverse Diag Spread:

Trade Position:

Bought to Open (+1x) WYNN Jul(19th) $29 Calls ($4.15-$4.35)

Sold to Open (-1x) WYNN Sep(20th) $31 Calls ($5.55-$5.85)

Net Credit of (+$1.37) (x10) = (+$1370)

Initial Risk/Margin = (-$430) per spread (x10) = (-$4300)

Target = WYNN to attack Key Resistance at the $250 zone - but anywhere > $240 already should be profitable.

Duration = Recent pullback from 3/5/14 to low on 4/25/14 = about 7 wks. Long call purchased was the Jul(19th) expiry. I prefer to purchase the shortest expiry to minimize overspending on extrinsic time value.

Technical Analysis:

Filter: Monthly Chart = higher highs, higher lows = Bullish trend & momentum.
Indicators: MACD > 0 and also Fast Line (FL) is > Slow Line (SL)
Indicators: Price > Alligator MAs

Entry: Daily Chart = Pullback for about 7 wks duration - then higher highs, higher lows.
Indicators: Price > trendline break to the upside
Indicators: Price > Alligator MAs

Hope details and images clear enough for T2W readers to study & follow along.

Any questions and/or constructive comments? Post or PM is fine...

Thx.

WklyOptions

Hi

Thanks for posting this as I want to follow but as a real beginner it there any way you can simplify as I can't even find the stock !! Is it Wynn resorts ? Sorry to ask

 

[WklyOptions]

Hi

Thanks for posting this as I want to follow but as a real beginner it there any way you can simplify as I can't even find the stock !! Is it Wynn resorts ? Sorry to ask

Gd mng, Jayouds08,

Yes - WYNN is the stock symbol for Wynn Resorts.

As for trying to learn about technical analysis, many good basic resources here in T2W, also in Investopedia, and of course, you can Google for such topics galore.

Options-based strategies a bit more complicated - esp if zero experience.

But congrats and welcome on your recon survey into the business of trading! Feel free to ask your questions here or PM me directly. If I am not logged on or am away, there are many T2W experts that are more than willing to answer your questions.

For now - a couple of very basic points for you to follow and focus the trades:

1. Keep track of my Risk per trade.
2. Then keep track of my final Result per trade.
3. Look - frequently and repeatedly - at the Monthly charts. Can you guess or "see" clearly why the trades were selected from your eyes?

No need to worry about how Expiry months and Strike Prices were selected.

Go slowly - read, research, ask, THINK/FOCUS/REFLECT, repeat cycle! These trades will take weeks to unfold - so plenty of time for you to get organized and start your "studies".

When things get too much, confusing, etc. - step away, and relax. Just let the learning get immersed to your mindset on its own natural rate, rhythm.

Thanks.

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Hi, all,

New swing trade today just setting up on stock symbol "M". The Weekly chart indicates that M has a Double Top formation with Resistance at $61. In addition recently the hourly and daily charts indicate there is selling pressure and bearish trend & momentum bias.

I entered into a 35-day (or less) bear call credit spread. Here's the data:


Sold to Open (-10) M Jul(19th) $57.5 Call @ (+$1.21)

Bought to Open (+10) M Jul(19th) $60 Call (-$0.39)

Net Credit (+$0.82)

Income received = (+$82)*10 = (+$820) less comms.

Max Risk = (-$1.68) or (-$168)*10 = (-$1680)

Max Return on Risk = (+48.8%) over 35 days.

Note that the entire credit received (+$246) here is 100% extrinsic time value since M was at $57.27 when this trade was opened.

I have set possible adjustment alert(s) if M > $58.

Let's see how it unfolds...

Thx.

WklyOptions

 

[Trendguy]

I mainly trade the Large Cap Stock Options on Friday only... they can move ! ! ! ! )

 

[WklyOptions]

I mainly trade the Large Cap Stock Options on Friday only... they can move ! ! ! ! )

Hi, Trendguy,

Yes, great idea - especially on wkly options on expiry day where there is effectively no time premium - only pure leverage!

Hope you can catch some big winners moving thru 2 or more strikes in your favor!

Good luck!

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

YHOO Weekly Options - Bear Call Spread

Hi, T2W members,

FYI - took a weekly option trade on YHOO this afternoon on the basis of strong downside momentum across the Daily chart:

Sold to Open (-15) YHOO Jun4(27th) $34 Call

Bought to Open (+15) YHOO Jun4(27th) $35 Call

@ Net Credit (+$0.34) per spread.

Risk = (-$66) per spread x 15 = (-$990)

Credit rec'd = (+$34) per spread x 15 = (+$510)

Max Ret on Mrgn = (+51.5%) in 5 trading days.

Please note - although most weekly options trades are meant to be "hands off" - if YHOO reverses back up quickly in the next 1-2 trading days, there will be enough time yet that I may adjust this spread.

Ok, hands off for now...deep breaths....let go!

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Hi, T2W members,

FYI - took a weekly option trade on YHOO this afternoon on the basis of strong downside momentum across the Daily chart:

Sold to Open (-15) YHOO Jun4(27th) $34 Call

Bought to Open (+15) YHOO Jun4(27th) $35 Call

@ Net Credit (+$0.34) per spread.

Risk = (-$66) per spread x 15 = (-$990)

Credit rec'd = (+$34) per spread x 15 = (+$510)

Max Ret on Mrgn = (+51.5%) in 5 trading days.

Please note - although most weekly options trades are meant to be "hands off" - if YHOO reverses back up quickly in the next 1-2 trading days, there will be enough time yet that I may adjust this spread.

Ok, hands off for now...deep breaths....let go!

WklyOptions

Hello, T2W members,

This YHOO trade was exited today. I had put this trade's post by mistake under the Options Swing Trades thread. It should be under the Weekly Options Trades post instead.

Well, here is the outcome:

Bought to Close (+1x) Jun4(27th) YHOO $34 Call

Sold to Close (-1x) Jun4(27th) YHOO $35 Call

@ Net Debit (-$0.04) per spread x 15 lots.

Final trade result:

Net Credit (+$0.30) x 15 lots = (+$450)

Initial Max Risk (-$0.66) per spread

Net Return on Margin (+45.5%) in 5 calendar days & good for (+$450).

Very enjoyable quick return on margin! Was able to exploit strong bearish trend and momentum bias off the Hourly and Daily charts!

Time to put on the next one...

Thx!

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Weekly Binary Option trade

Hi, T2W members,

This is a NADEX based binary option trade I took early this week on the GBPJPY pair.

Although it is a binary option trade, the expiry is an end-of-week expiry, so I still "filed" it as part of "Options Swing Trades" for now.

In the future, my short-term binary options trading < 1 day expiry will be put in a new sub-thread called "Intraday Binary Options Trading".

Here is this week's trade on the GBPJPY (see attached chart 1):

1. Weekly GBPJPY trend & momentum was bullish. Had a down close on the weekly chart going into the wknd.
2. The T1 = Weekly Chart. T3 = H4 chart.

Note = b/c the currency volatility on a weekly duration is far greater than an intraday expiry duration, the MACD criteria for a bullish T1 based off the FREE eBook "Tracking Big Money Trends" is different. But that is less important.

3. Waited for pullback on the H4 which occurred going into the wknd.
4. Then waited for H4 price action and Bullish Entry trigger - hit at $173.581.

I used the NADEX binary option wkly expiry on GBPJPY (see attached chart 2):

5. Bought to Open (GBP/JPY > $173.75) @ $44.25 per lot.
6. Risk = (-$44.25). Total risk this trade = (-$2212.50). Fees excluded.
7. Max Profit = (+$55.75).
8. Break-even Target 1 = at 85% of Initial Risk (or Target 1 = $81.86).
9. Target 2 = held to expiry = Trailing Stop-Loss at $44.50.

Trade mgmt = GBPJPY hit resistance & trading range.

10. Exited 28-lot at $81.86. Credit received = (+$2292.08). Break-even locked. :clap:
11. Remaining open = 22-lot.

Will exit 22-lot if binary option price drops < $44.50 (valued at $979.00).

Still a little over 1+ day left to expiry. Time to wait and see how it finishes...

Regards,

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Hi, T2W members,

This is a NADEX based binary option trade I took early this week on the GBPJPY pair.

...
5. Bought to Open (GBP/JPY > $173.75) @ $44.25 per lot.
6. Risk = (-$44.25). Total risk this trade = (-$2212.50). Fees excluded.
7. Max Profit = (+$55.75).
8. Break-even Target 1 = at 85% of Initial Risk (or Target 1 = $81.86).
9. Target 2 = held to expiry = Trailing Stop-Loss at $44.50.

Trade mgmt = GBPJPY hit resistance & trading range.

10. Exited 28-lot at $81.86. Credit received = (+$2292.08). Break-even locked. :clap:
11. Remaining open = 22-lot.

Will exit 22-lot if binary option price drops < $44.50 (valued at $979.00).
...

Hi, T2W traders,

This GBP/JPY trade was exited this morning at 07.17.2014 - 0453am EST when GBP/JPY was $174.039.

The Nadex GBP/JPY (>$173.75) call binary option hit $44.50. The remaining 22-lot position was exited automatically.

Net result:

1. Opening trade = 50-lot BTO GBP/JPY (>$173.75) @ $44.25 = (-$2212.50).
2. Breakeven Target & Trailing Stop-Loss trade = 28-lot exited @ $77.75 (+$2177.00)
a. Nadex GBP/JPY (Weekly Expiry > $173.75) Call Option - Break Even Trailing Stop-Loss exited (see chart 1)
b. GBP/JPY corresponding charts - Break Even Trailing Stop exited 28-Lot (see chart 2)
3. Final Initial Stop-Loss trade = 22-lot exited @ $44.50 (+$979.00)
a. Nadex GBP/JPY (Weekly Expiry > $173.75) Calls - Final 22-Lot exited $44.50
b. GBP/JPY charts - Final 22-Lot exited.

Net result = (+$943.50) = (+42.6%) {Nadex fees excluded}

Regards,

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Hi T2W traders,

Debriefing on GBP/JPY Nadex Weekly Expiry (>$173.75) Binary Call Trade = (+42.6%) = Trade exited early as Break Even Trailing Stop & Final Target Trailing Stop points were hit early.

Lessons Learned:

1. Entry area = Pullback trading setup. Lack of follow-thru of bullish momentum.
2. With ALL BINARY trading (if > 5 mins expiry) - it is critical to establish Trailing Stop-Loss exit points for both Break Even Target & Final Target points.
3. Nadex binary options easier to exit BEFORE expiry - unlike non-Nadex binaries.

Regards,

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Hi, T2W traders,

New bearish trade using Nadex Put Binary.

1. AUDJPY - Daily & H4 trend & momentum = bearish.
2. M15 chart shows bearish divergence between Price vs MACD.

Entry Setup (chart 1 attached):

3. Look at M15 chart.
4. Entry @ 0900am EST on 07/18/2014.

Nadex Put Binary (chart 2 attached):

5. Using the AUDJPY < $95.00 Put Binary Option.
6. Expiry selected = Daily expiry @ 1500pm EST.
7. BTO 30-Lot @ ($67.50)

Reward/Risk:

8. Max Risk Loss = (-$975.00)
9. Max Profit = (+$2025.00)

Exit Criteria:

10. Reassess @ 1300pm EST, 07/18/2014.
11. 85% Max Profit = ($15.00) = (+$52.50) per Put Binary Option
12. Look to STC 19-Lot @ ($15.00).
13. Then look to trail remaining open 11-Lot @ ($67.00).

Will let trade unfold now...

Please feel free to ask your questions/chart observations or options questions.

Regards,

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

Hi, T2W traders,

New bearish trade using Nadex Put Binary.

1. AUDJPY - Daily & H4 trend & momentum = bearish.
2. M15 chart shows bearish divergence between Price vs MACD.

Entry Setup (chart 1 attached):

3. Look at M15 chart.
4. Entry @ 0900am EST on 07/18/2014.

Nadex Put Binary (chart 2 attached):

5. Using the AUDJPY < $95.00 Put Binary Option.
6. Expiry selected = Daily expiry @ 1500pm EST.
7. BTO 30-Lot @ ($67.50)

Reward/Risk:

8. Max Risk Loss = (-$975.00)
9. Max Profit = (+$2025.00)

Exit Criteria:

10. Reassess @ 1300pm EST, 07/18/2014.
11. 85% Max Profit = ($15.00) = (+$52.50) per Put Binary Option
12. Look to STC 19-Lot @ ($15.00).
13. Then look to trail remaining open 11-Lot @ ($67.00).

Will let trade unfold now...

Please feel free to ask your questions/chart observations or options questions.

Regards,

WklyOptions

Hi, T2W traders,

Well, this Nadex Binary trade turned out unsuccessfully - the option expired out of the money for a loss of (-$975) excluding Nadex fees.

There was no bearish momentum follow-thru going into the last few hrs of the trading week.

Fortunately the previous Nadex win with the GBPJPY trade covered approximately this trade's loss.

Lesson Learned: :smart:

1. Be very cautious trading Nadex binaries going into Fri expiry - especially after 1pm EST. Liquidity AND volatility (necessary for Nadex-type binary options) really dried up in the last 3 hrs before the end-of-week expiry.
2. Better to enter earlier in the week - and then look to exit earlier than expiry.

Well, time to go to the next Nadex binary setup...

Thank you.

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

T2W traders,

New bearish trade on EURJPY T1=Daily, T2=H4. Bearish entry on Nadex (3pm EST Expiry, 7/21/14) $137 strike price. Will post charts and details soon. Just a bit busy with a couple of M15 and M30 binary trades right now (not pull-back trades but instead momentum breakout trades).

Rec'd (+$45.50) per contract.

Will look to exit when 80% of Max Credit rec'd is achieved. Or look to exit at a loss if at (-1R). 80% Max Credit = exit if can buy back options at ($10.00).

1. Protect Stop-Loss exit = Buy to Close if contract price > ($80.50).
2. Target Profit exit = Buy to Close if contract price < ($10.00).

If require adjustment earlier - will post it asap.

Thank you.

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

T2W members,

I forgot - but wanted to emphasize here - that on average, I allocate my bets to be able to attack a specific entry setup with at least 2-3 "bets" accordingly.

Especially when dealing with US and European binary option types - since these products are all-or-none products at expiry, it is important to have sufficient bankroll and # of bets per setup. :idea:

Unless one is effectively trading a longer-term swing campaign lasting several wks or months, it is difficult to hedge or apply "repair hedging" techniques.

Hence - again the need to carefully allocate out the risk capital to at least 2-3 potential entries per trading setup/criteria.

I have also found the forex volatility - and the strike price intervals of the US binary options on the Nadex - to be much different than the CBOE wkly or monthly options. So it is still a learning/fitting process for my setups vs volatility vs correct time frame to select out for the T1 time frame.

The European binary options are easier to trade/manage per setup because there is no need to evaluate strike price levels and strike price interval size vs volatility. I trade European binary options for intraday binary trades < 2 hrs in trade duration. Longer than 2 hrs - I tend to use the Nadex binary options.

Well, more to follow-up later.

Regards,

WklyOptions

 

[WklyOptions]

T2W members,

I forgot - but wanted to emphasize here - that on average, I allocate my bets to be able to attack a specific entry setup with at least 2-3 "bets" accordingly.

Especially when dealing with US and European binary option types - since these products are all-or-none products at expiry, it is important to have sufficient bankroll and # of bets per setup. :idea:

Unless one is effectively trading a longer-term swing campaign lasting several wks or months, it is difficult to hedge or apply "repair hedging" techniques.

Hence - again the need to carefully allocate out the risk capital to at least 2-3 potential entries per trading setup/criteria.

I have also found the forex volatility - and the strike price intervals of the US binary options on the Nadex - to be much different than the CBOE wkly or monthly options. So it is still a learning/fitting process for my setups vs volatility vs correct time frame to select out for the T1 time frame.

The European binary options are easier to trade/manage per setup because there is no need to evaluate strike price levels and strike price interval size vs volatility. I trade European binary options for intraday binary trades < 2 hrs in trade duration. Longer than 2 hrs - I tend to use the Nadex binary options.

Well, more to follow-up later.

Regards,

WklyOptions

EURJPY Binary Update:

The EURJPY Nadex $137 short call binary trade was exited this morning at 0816am EST at breakeven. The bearish momentum stalled after several hrs in the trade. The T3 Hourly chart formed Key Support at 136.926 - 136.930 across several hourly bars without being able to close < 136.925. :whistling

The T1 Daily chart still indicates a bearish trend & momentum bias over the past several days.

Will look to retest another bearish trade later today IF the proper T2 H4 and T3 H1 charts indicate realignment back to the bearish momentum bias. :idea:

Thank you.

WklyOptions