Obvious trend direction

[Joe Ross]

Try to see the obvious trend direction found on any chart. If you can not decide what that trend is, turn the chart upside down, or ask a child to look at a chart and tell you if the market is going up or down. Children are naturally creative and honest. They see things adults tend to overlook. If a child can see the obvious, so should the trader. There are a lot of ways a chart may express up and down movement, but a market is in the process of making either a top or bottom 100% of the time. Only when a trader can accurately define trends can he trade to his maximum potential by knowing where the market should go and when it should arrive at a specific price.

One of the most important question to ask during the trading day is this, “what is the last technical occurrence I expect to happen today?” At that price the trader must have reversed or exited his market positions. The valuable insight gained from asking this question prepares the trader's technical responses for any market condition and helps locate protective stops and possible reversal entries. What is the last thing you would technically expect from the market you are currently trading tomorrow?

 

[ymanly]

Hi Joe,

Even though I know you are correct extremely high % that I am writing this as no challenge to you whatsover. But the "Trade what you see, not what you think" is one of my oldest and greatest rules. But, when you say "what is the last thing you would technically expectlater or even tomorrow" does that not require thinking ahead, anticipation, etc.? No argument intended my friend, as i have a deep respect for your style and approach to trading. I only trade ES intraday, shutting it off at market close and cranking it up at market open, with
9 cst as my real beginning . My simple question for me to ask myself when all else looks good or bad is "who is winning, bulls or bears" which is simple trend identification by demand and supply lines and severity of angles. 45 degrees / Thank you for posting here. The serious ones will learn from you, if their ego is not too puffed up.

 

[Black Swan]

Like it Joe.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

I'm usually right with the where but the when... suppose it will come with time and experience

 

[TheBramble]

There are a lot of ways a chart may express up and down movement,

Well, not really Joe. It’s either moving up, or down, or sideways and it has only one way of expressing each of those moves. Doesn’t matter whether you turn the chart, or the child holding the chart, upside down, there’s really just the one way of expressing any one of those three types of trend.

but a market is in the process of making either a top or bottom 100% of the time.

On a metaphysical level, yes, of course it is. But if you’re 6 months to the next Low/High then this isn’t particularly useful news.

Only when a trader can accurately define trends can he trade to his maximum potential by knowing where the market should go and when it should arrive at a specific price.

’Should go’? Come on Joe, you know better than that. Sure, if you have a clear trend there is a higher, slightly, probability of it continuing than not, but there’s no such thing as ‘knowing’ and as to ‘when it should arrive at a specific price’, you have to be joking.

You fill these kids heads with this stuff and you will only perpetuate the suffering. It is possible to get a reasonably accurate shot at target forecast most of the time, after a lot of effort and experience, but to imply it’s a doddle is disingenuous. Targets need to be dynamically adjusted in line with the changing dynamics of the instrument and the market as a whole. It’s not a fire-and-forget operation Joe.

One of the most important question to ask during the trading day is this, “what is the last technical occurrence I expect to happen today?” At that price the trader must have reversed or exited his market positions. The valuable insight gained from asking this question prepares the trader's technical responses for any market condition and helps locate protective stops and possible reversal entries. What is the last thing you would technically expect from the market you are currently trading tomorrow?

An even more important question is, “What are most of the fools using TA with default parameter settings going to think they need to do when the price does such and such”? and then trade off them. I need these people Joe as I make my living from what is effectively the ‘retail wildcard’ of numpty traders.

For those who do depend on something other than visual id for trend spotting, why not use a tool that has more typically found use in the ranging/oscillating markets – the good old RSI. Please use the standard 14 period setting that you received as shipped & installed with your standard charting package so that I can continue to see you coming. Thanks.

Anyway, forget the old ‘over 80 – Sell / Below 20 – Buy’ stuff and just take a fresh look. You’ll note that when you are in a trending market, the RSI(14) will tend to stay higher than ‘normal’ in a Bull trend and lower than ‘normal’ in a Bear trend. Specific figures are tough as it is, to a small extent, instrument dependent, but as a rough guide, if the RSI(14) is sandwiched between 20-65 you’re almost certainly in a Bear trend. If it’s stuck in the 40-90 range, you’re likely in a Bull market.

If you’re going to use indicators for strategies and entries/exits and identifying trends is one of your things, this may be just what you’re looking for. I know I am….LOL.

 

[Technically Fundamental]

@ Bramble

Thank F for that... I thought I was supposed to know when instruments would hit levels.

I thank you for adding to my bullshizen filter.

 

[ymanly]

I only "know" that for sure when the apex is forming for either the big retracement or the true channel reversal which means both will pay. How do we get there? TA traders with many years of studying the market. emini intraday only ...is what i trade.....How do I know when the apex is forming....candles, candles patterns, line ma patterns, and the location of those .....for the most likely occurence times of those most productive ones will be either on the hour or 1/2 hour...

As far as TA fools...that is a very foolish comment...trends are there for the children to see....

RSI? same as all oscillators..and i do mean all......they will lock up/down on hard extended move or trend day and be high % worthless...volume? the tick chart does a much better job of exposing volume than volume indicator.......arrogance and ego is the biggest trap of all...........

 

[ymanly]

if it is moving up it is a trend up.....down trend down.......sideways trend sideways ......45 degrees is the simple line to tell you when trend rolls over........sell high buy low with trend...sell rallies buy dips with channel.......this is how simple it really is ...trend is ur friend til the end then u have a new friend......

 

[Tullio]

So, what's the trend now?

 

[TheBramble]

In what?

Intelligent questions?

Down. Down for a long, long time...

 

[Tullio]

In what?

Intelligent questions?

Down. Down for a long, long time...

That was the week before.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Try to see the obvious trend direction found on any chart. If you can not decide what that trend is, turn the chart upside down, or ask a child to look at a chart and tell you if the market is going up or down. Children are naturally creative and honest. They see things adults tend to overlook. If a child can see the obvious, so should the trader.

Oi Oi, I was active in another thread here Joe, one that used an indication method that refered to "seeing puppies" .

I asked my neighbours children once, "Hello, would you like to come and see my puppies" and next thing I know, I am at Crown Court having to explain myself to some bloke in a wig talking about a nonse register and such.

Careful Joe, careful ,things are not like they once were anymore !

 

[ymanly]

JOE, obviously the groupies don't believe trends exist. So, I must surmise that if one cannot see it it does not exist...trend is your friend until you get sick of taking the money it so happily produces...one who sees no trend has no friend ....only enemies...

 

[ymanly]

tullio..........what is the trend now........es........well let's peek into it....6 am cst...for me....kazoom.....price down...all day...that is the obvious trend but almost all others are just as obvious...buy today so far and trader better be good one......minor opp to make a few on retracement........strong hand knows that is not it only opp to sell high again.......wow...rocket science huh? dead chart ? all charts are dead.......except the live candle......Joe said, trade what you see not what you think.............

 

[ymanly]

note the 11:30 cst apex....get it? apex.....note the xing #2 of entire day there....5 min chart is weak hand chart and too much stuff that is overkill.....10 and 15 tells us slowly...id the trend trade the trend ......what is trend now tullio???????? it is not TRENDING it is dead...but one who cannot see the trend down and trend up is weak hand..probably watching 5 min and shorter charts....... this stuff is not rocket science...it is up buy down sell sideways rest with the market let the nerves unjangle.....i did not need yesterday's stuff nor s/r to tell me the move down and move up was there realtime or any other time...SPEAKING INTRADAY ES ONLY