Newbie Trader needs opinions on Binary bets

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pete80

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Hello everyone,
First post here but have been viewing/searching. I have been paper trading spreadbets on Indices and made a 55/45 profit ratio but losses did get big on a couple of occasions.
I have decided to try binary betting for real money soon and wanted to know the better firms for my intended type of bet.
This would entail me waiting till 2.00pm to 3.00 pm, going in at £25 to £50 per point on FTSE100 (daily bet) when index was up or down at least 30 points on the day and with no major news due and chart trendline looking okay.
I have been paper trading when the binary figures are showing 92/95 to rise or 5/8 to fall by close. I know this couldn't trade every day with that 30 point minimum rise or fall but when it did happen my paper trade won each time.
My question is, it looks safe over last 2 weeks but is probability of wins good enough to follow this method, also will SB firms stop me pulling say £200 2 or 3 times a week using this bet on its own ? All opinions very welcome, thanks - Pete
 
pete80 said:
Hello everyone,
First post here but have been viewing/searching. I have been paper trading spreadbets on Indices and made a 55/45 profit ratio but losses did get big on a couple of occasions.
I have decided to try binary betting for real money soon and wanted to know the better firms for my intended type of bet.
This would entail me waiting till 2.00pm to 3.00 pm, going in at £25 to £50 per point on FTSE100 (daily bet) when index was up or down at least 30 points on the day and with no major news due and chart trendline looking okay.
I have been paper trading when the binary figures are showing 92/95 to rise or 5/8 to fall by close. I know this couldn't trade every day with that 30 point minimum rise or fall but when it did happen my paper trade won each time.
My question is, it looks safe over last 2 weeks but is probability of wins good enough to follow this method, also will SB firms stop me pulling say £200 2 or 3 times a week using this bet on its own ? All opinions very welcome, thanks - Pete
Click to expand...

if you do this and get it wrong your loss will be huge. the risk to reward is well against you be carefull...:eek:
 
If you are getting large losses while paper trading the indices, then you are not ready to do this for real.

If you've got five, ten grand to throw away each week, give it to me and I'll teach you how to trade properly.

Oh! have a look at choice odds.
 
Thanks Gents

Well first of all thanks for your replies gents and I will be careful with being ready to close a deal if I take a 10 point loss from 95 to 85 OR 98 to 88.
It just seems to work better than my bets on indices when I was doing £10 a point looking for 10 point gain plus the spread.
On Friday after the US CPI and other important news came out about 1.30pm the Dow jumped 50 points and FTSE 20 points. I bought FTSE Binary at £80 per point at 98.4 for an easy 1.6 point profit (the FTSE was about 70 points up at this stage)
It just looks to me like a 2 to 5 point gain is easy enough when the market is up or down by a large amount in the last 2 hours or so. This may only happen twice a week but it seems worth waiting for. Oh heck I'll give it a try - nothing ventured, nothing gained, speculate to accumulate and all that. My life has been a gamble anyway but my theory above seems safer than most, I'll keep you up to date guys
Cheers
Pete
 
pete80 said:
On Friday after the US CPI and other important news came out about 1.30pm the Dow jumped 50 points and FTSE 20 points. I bought FTSE Binary at £80 per point at 98.4 for an easy 1.6 point profit (the FTSE was about 70 points up at this stage)
It just looks to me like a 2 to 5 point gain is easy enough when the market is up or down by a large amount in the last 2 hours or so. This may only happen twice a week but it seems worth waiting for.
Click to expand...

Good bet! but why only £80?, when i see such good trades i bet to the hilt (eg £100 on BinaryBet).
 
I only had £80 a point because I need to have enough margin on my account to cover the possible (hope not !) loss if really bad news happened. I would bet the max if I could Donald, BTW have you you been betting this way for small points profits on the binary market for a while and if so what is your ratio of win/lose bets. I am keeping a spreadsheet now and will post it a few weeks down the line with full details of my bets.
 
pete80 said:
with no major news due and chart trendline looking okay.
Click to expand...

Hi,

How do you know there's no major news due? I'm curious how everyone out there tracks when announcements are due - is there one favoured site, or do you all just piece it together from a combination of sources? Forex Factory has a nice calendar, but I don't know how many people here use it.

Cheers,

Geoff
 
Major news is listed on ADVFN, IG INDEX, and many spreadbetting/futures firms firms have an economic news calendar. Also use rolling news on CMC Markets who also display "Important Messages" on your screen while signed in.

Regards

Pete
 
forexcal.com and bloomberg.com also have good calendars.

with that sort of strategy, you need to shop around for the narrowest spreads, just in case you have to cut a lossing position. I'm not sure BB are the best out there.

There always seems to be some action on Betfair around 98/2 point level. It's actually becoming a bit more tradeable in the middle at the moment.
 
I'm working full-time on developing a market making service for all financial markets on Betfair - once this is online there should be tight spreads with plenty of money available. The liquidity is not too bad at the moment, certainly better than it was 6-12 months ago, although around 2-3 years ago there was 200k+ GBP traded on each hourly FTSE intra - once a permanent MM is present I believe those levels can be restored after a few months. I'll also be pushing Betfair to open up more FTSE and Dow Midday/Daily handicap markets.

I've also developed a binary betting interface for Betfair - it started out as an interface purely for the Betfair financial markets but I extended v1.0 to be compatible with all binary markets on Betfair, and v2.0 will be out shortly which will be compatible with all Betfair markets. It's available at http://www.binarysoft.co.uk/bdi/ - any suggestions for more financial features are welcome, I want to create the ultimate bit of software for professional trading on Betfair (advanced charting, stop loss, fill or kill orders are all in development and should appear in v2.1 or v2.2)
 
I would love to see more liquidity at betfair as it is probably the only genuine opportunity where spreads can be small and we bet against each other. However I cant see that happening until an interface can be linked to the underline index with someone prepared to lay both sides all the way through and i cant see that happening.

Cant see why anyone would want to buy a spread that is 96-98.5 in order to make money the risks are far to great. Am I alone in this thinking
 
julian said:
IHowever I cant see that happening until an interface can be linked to the underline index with someone prepared to lay both sides all the way through and i cant see that happening.
Click to expand...

This is what I was referring to by becoming a Market Maker - it has happened several times in the past but unfortunately the MMers which have tried so far have only lasted a couple of weeks. I'm aiming to become a MM on all Betfair financial markets for at least a few years. What do you mean by "interface can be linked to the underlying index"?

julian said:
Cant see why anyone would want to buy a spread that is 96-98.5 in order to make money the risks are far to great. Am I alone in this thinking
Click to expand...

Not sure what you mean by this - surely a similar situation would apply to the financial bookmakers as well? There is money being traded at other prices apart from 96-98.5 on Betfair!
 
I and many would be delighted for you to be a market maker. How would you get the spreads on quickly enough and to what volume. The people that have failed before have because it is so hard to do. Doing it manually could never work,it would need to be an automated system linked to the cash market if it is possible. There is so much potential for an exchange like betfair to work,but it moves so fast it cant work like a football match.

The 95-98 was refering to an earlier post
 
The MM system will use various factors such as the cash market and futures feeds, but linking to the cash market alone would be very unwise as the cash market is only updated every 15 seconds (for the FTSE anyway).
 
are you saying my datafeed from esignal is only updated evry 15 seconds that news to me. If you can get the software to always lay a tight spread with volume either side it wont be long before each hourlie is as busy as a football match. I wish you all the luck with it. I dont think any other features will be needed, get that going you are on to a winner
 
julian said:
are you saying my datafeed from esignal is only updated evry 15 seconds that news to me. If you can get the software to always lay a tight spread with volume either side it wont be long before each hourlie is as busy as a football match. I wish you all the luck with it. I dont think any other features will be needed, get that going you are on to a winner
Click to expand...

Not sure which datafeed you have, but I know for a fact that the FTSE 100 Cash index is updated every 15 seconds, see:

http://www.liffe.com/liffeinvestor/introduction/how/products/ftse100futs/what.htm
 
The actual FTSE Cash Index is only calculated each 15 seconds (basis last traded price for each stock in the 100). However.... the FTSE Futures move in real time and are a proxy for FTSE Cash. As a result the spreadbetting firms use the futures to calculate the actual value for FTSE on a second by second basis. However... the binary bets are actually expired on the value of FTSE cash (normally the next print or tick after the stated expiry time in the case of hourlies or any other intra day bet) hence why they dont normally allow betting in the last minute or so (as pricing the cash basis the futures is not and exact science and could be open to abuse in a close run finish).

Anyone who wants to market makes these products needs to be a brave boy in my opinion!

Steve.
 
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