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Friday 10th of September
The S&P futures closed marginally down on the day and it was an inside day in technical terms. Meaning we traded inside the previous day's range.
Some observations that I outlined in my daily report that is worth repeating:
(ES) Falling resistance from April highs' was broken yesterday and was coming in at 1098, which held as support today. Previous resistance line, now future support?
- (ES) the gap at 1108.25 has not been closed yet since the December contract is now front month and we also have open gap at 1054.25
- Gold futures (GC) closed below the 32 days long uptrend from July low
- VXX is approaching that 17.84 low it bottomed out at in April when we had the S&P futures high at 1212. Right before the sell off started. Are the markets too complacent now?
- Euro was not following the ES higher in the last few days, both Euro and GBPUSD relatively weak this week even though ES closed up more than 10 points on the weak. Euro down about 210 pips on the week.
- The 10 year Treasury futures closed at 123’12.5 below the 50 day moving average (123’13.0) today, first time since April. We have -3 sigma at 122’30.0
Trading wise I did the following today:
I close the RIG back spread for October at close to 100% profit after RIG spiked higher, thank you very much.
Traded to the long side for 3 points in the S&P futures (ES).
Added a VIX futures options structure, I bought the November 27.50 call and sold the October 30 call at a ratio 1x1 (meaning 1 structure involved selling 1 contract and buying 1 contract of each leg), paying a net 1.90 per structure.
My logic for doing something in the VIX is that we are approaching that low in VXX that we have when the market topped out in April at 1212 in ES.
See link for chart on VXX.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/09/10/Untitled_1_2.png
I will most likely make further changes to the options portfolio start of next week to take some of the September options off (close them out) to reduce the risk as we probably will see increased volatility next week. Remember that we want to scale out of the options when volatility drops to levels where the option is so cheap that it makes no sense to hang on for the last few points and instead add other options that has higher premium.
Have a great weekend, take care
The S&P futures closed marginally down on the day and it was an inside day in technical terms. Meaning we traded inside the previous day's range.
Some observations that I outlined in my daily report that is worth repeating:
(ES) Falling resistance from April highs' was broken yesterday and was coming in at 1098, which held as support today. Previous resistance line, now future support?
- (ES) the gap at 1108.25 has not been closed yet since the December contract is now front month and we also have open gap at 1054.25
- Gold futures (GC) closed below the 32 days long uptrend from July low
- VXX is approaching that 17.84 low it bottomed out at in April when we had the S&P futures high at 1212. Right before the sell off started. Are the markets too complacent now?
- Euro was not following the ES higher in the last few days, both Euro and GBPUSD relatively weak this week even though ES closed up more than 10 points on the weak. Euro down about 210 pips on the week.
- The 10 year Treasury futures closed at 123’12.5 below the 50 day moving average (123’13.0) today, first time since April. We have -3 sigma at 122’30.0
Trading wise I did the following today:
I close the RIG back spread for October at close to 100% profit after RIG spiked higher, thank you very much.
Traded to the long side for 3 points in the S&P futures (ES).
Added a VIX futures options structure, I bought the November 27.50 call and sold the October 30 call at a ratio 1x1 (meaning 1 structure involved selling 1 contract and buying 1 contract of each leg), paying a net 1.90 per structure.
My logic for doing something in the VIX is that we are approaching that low in VXX that we have when the market topped out in April at 1212 in ES.
See link for chart on VXX.
http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/09/10/Untitled_1_2.png
I will most likely make further changes to the options portfolio start of next week to take some of the September options off (close them out) to reduce the risk as we probably will see increased volatility next week. Remember that we want to scale out of the options when volatility drops to levels where the option is so cheap that it makes no sense to hang on for the last few points and instead add other options that has higher premium.
Have a great weekend, take care
My blog can also be found at:
http://avantagefinancial.blogspot.com/
http://avantagefinancial.blogspot.com/
Monday 13th of September
New week and new opportunities.
Equities higher on BASEL 3 news and good economic data from China. Turkish referendum also a positive. S&P futures gapping 10.25 points on the open and closed fairly close to the open, 1 point higher than the open. Looking like a doji on daily chart.
Big resistance up at 1122 and 1127. See MrTopstep video:
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/13/whatcha-gonna-do/
As for trading it was a relatively busy day. As I have plenty of short calls from 1090 and up, so I had to stay on the long side to protect the upside. Fairly active day with 16 trades in the ES for 16 points gain total and made 15 adjustments to the options portfolio.
The gap higher forced me to make quite a few changes that would have not be done in a non gapping market. Basically had to sell a bit more premium (selling short term puts and also some long term calls) to make up for the lack of long delta on the gap and also close out some of the way out of the money puts to reduce the risk if we see a big swing lower. Which I still think could happen as long as 1128 resistance holds. I always try to make sure I take off puts and calls that have very little comparative value left and especially if they are far away from the current price to allow me to sell something that is either closer to market or just take some risk off if it were to make a big move. Last thing I want to happen is to have an option that I have sold at 25 points and suddenly has a value of 5 points with a few months to go stuck in my portfolio. I prefer to then take profit to avoid this option coming into play again. Make more sense to me then to sell something with much higher Theta instead then to grind out those last 5 points.
Ok, back to the adjustments I made:
I closed the short 1090 calls and 1090 puts for Sep. I also closed the 1110 calls for Sep. I took profit on the 1100 puts for Sep (bot back at 2.80 or so) and 1030 for October (bot back around 7 points). Instead I sold 1060 puts for October, getting on avg. 10.75 points for those. Sold some more call options at 1140 and 1150 for Nov, which is basically above the 1128 key resistance area with some margin and I assume if this level breaks, the downside puts can be bot back cheap.
That is the logic for selling those levels. I also added some 1120 puts for Friday, just to make up for the lack of long delta on the gap higher on the open. Will most likely close them out in the next few sessions, was more a short theta short term play. I am at the moment still Delta minus, meaning I am short in real terms overall.
Would not be surprised to see a dip overnight and possibly that gap at 1105.75 to be closed sometime over the next few sessions, so I will most likely remain short biased for the next few sessions unless that 1122 and possibly 1128 resistance levels breaks.
That is it for now, time to watch the Nadal - Djokovic US Open Final, good night.
New week and new opportunities.
Equities higher on BASEL 3 news and good economic data from China. Turkish referendum also a positive. S&P futures gapping 10.25 points on the open and closed fairly close to the open, 1 point higher than the open. Looking like a doji on daily chart.
Big resistance up at 1122 and 1127. See MrTopstep video:
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/13/whatcha-gonna-do/
As for trading it was a relatively busy day. As I have plenty of short calls from 1090 and up, so I had to stay on the long side to protect the upside. Fairly active day with 16 trades in the ES for 16 points gain total and made 15 adjustments to the options portfolio.
The gap higher forced me to make quite a few changes that would have not be done in a non gapping market. Basically had to sell a bit more premium (selling short term puts and also some long term calls) to make up for the lack of long delta on the gap and also close out some of the way out of the money puts to reduce the risk if we see a big swing lower. Which I still think could happen as long as 1128 resistance holds. I always try to make sure I take off puts and calls that have very little comparative value left and especially if they are far away from the current price to allow me to sell something that is either closer to market or just take some risk off if it were to make a big move. Last thing I want to happen is to have an option that I have sold at 25 points and suddenly has a value of 5 points with a few months to go stuck in my portfolio. I prefer to then take profit to avoid this option coming into play again. Make more sense to me then to sell something with much higher Theta instead then to grind out those last 5 points.
Ok, back to the adjustments I made:
I closed the short 1090 calls and 1090 puts for Sep. I also closed the 1110 calls for Sep. I took profit on the 1100 puts for Sep (bot back at 2.80 or so) and 1030 for October (bot back around 7 points). Instead I sold 1060 puts for October, getting on avg. 10.75 points for those. Sold some more call options at 1140 and 1150 for Nov, which is basically above the 1128 key resistance area with some margin and I assume if this level breaks, the downside puts can be bot back cheap.
That is the logic for selling those levels. I also added some 1120 puts for Friday, just to make up for the lack of long delta on the gap higher on the open. Will most likely close them out in the next few sessions, was more a short theta short term play. I am at the moment still Delta minus, meaning I am short in real terms overall.
Would not be surprised to see a dip overnight and possibly that gap at 1105.75 to be closed sometime over the next few sessions, so I will most likely remain short biased for the next few sessions unless that 1122 and possibly 1128 resistance levels breaks.
That is it for now, time to watch the Nadal - Djokovic US Open Final, good night.
Tuesday 14th of September
The S&P futures broke the August high by 0.50 points yesterday (if you look at a contiunous ES chart the Aug top was 1122), but it could not follow through and backed off to close in the lower half of the daily range and also below Monday's close.
This price action is see as weak and would not be suprised to see a move lower Wednesday and at least to close the 1105.75 gap from Friday last week. We also have a gap down at 1054.25 from 31st of August worth keeping in mind.
As far as the trading goes I had to make furter adjustments Tuesday.
First of all I had to go long to hedge the short calls and this went well, but when it reversed I was stuck long, so the earlier gains in the morning got reduced and made 3 points total trading long in the futures.
For the options I made the following changes:
I sold an additional small put postion of the 1060 puts for October and also sold more 1130 calls for October. I don't think both of these levels will come into play short term as I think we either break higher above 1130 to move towards 1160 and 1060 is then way out of reach. Or we fail here around the 1122 to 1127 level and move lower. I sold more 1130 than 1060 so I have more calls. I also closed the short 1090 calls and instead sold some 1160 calls for November expiration, getting around 18.50 for those.
On the September options I reduced some risk by buying back the 1110 and 1115 puts when we tested the daily highs and instead sold some 1130 Sep as I need an hedge for some of the short calls in the money at 1120. I also bought back the 1110 Sep calls to reduce some of the long exposure.
I now have basically now have short calls for October at 1100, 1120 and 1130.
Short puts for October at 1040, 1060 and 1080. November I have 1140, 1150 and 1160 calls. I also have 1120 and 1130 puts for expiration Friday as a hedge that I will most likely make futher changes to Wednesday as they are just meant as short term hegdes if 1123 breaks, which I don't see that likely today.
Think we need to see a correction lower before a move higher.
I also have the VIX position where I sold the October 30 calls and bot the Nov 27.50 calls at a ratio of 1X1.
My bias is to have mostly short calls and trade long against these calls, a few reasons why I like that approach is that you are less exposed to quick down moves and volatility expansion.
Remember to watch Tuesday's Top Notch:
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/14/top-notch-key-levels/
That is all for today, Good luck and take care.
The S&P futures broke the August high by 0.50 points yesterday (if you look at a contiunous ES chart the Aug top was 1122), but it could not follow through and backed off to close in the lower half of the daily range and also below Monday's close.
This price action is see as weak and would not be suprised to see a move lower Wednesday and at least to close the 1105.75 gap from Friday last week. We also have a gap down at 1054.25 from 31st of August worth keeping in mind.
As far as the trading goes I had to make furter adjustments Tuesday.
First of all I had to go long to hedge the short calls and this went well, but when it reversed I was stuck long, so the earlier gains in the morning got reduced and made 3 points total trading long in the futures.
For the options I made the following changes:
I sold an additional small put postion of the 1060 puts for October and also sold more 1130 calls for October. I don't think both of these levels will come into play short term as I think we either break higher above 1130 to move towards 1160 and 1060 is then way out of reach. Or we fail here around the 1122 to 1127 level and move lower. I sold more 1130 than 1060 so I have more calls. I also closed the short 1090 calls and instead sold some 1160 calls for November expiration, getting around 18.50 for those.
On the September options I reduced some risk by buying back the 1110 and 1115 puts when we tested the daily highs and instead sold some 1130 Sep as I need an hedge for some of the short calls in the money at 1120. I also bought back the 1110 Sep calls to reduce some of the long exposure.
I now have basically now have short calls for October at 1100, 1120 and 1130.
Short puts for October at 1040, 1060 and 1080. November I have 1140, 1150 and 1160 calls. I also have 1120 and 1130 puts for expiration Friday as a hedge that I will most likely make futher changes to Wednesday as they are just meant as short term hegdes if 1123 breaks, which I don't see that likely today.
Think we need to see a correction lower before a move higher.
I also have the VIX position where I sold the October 30 calls and bot the Nov 27.50 calls at a ratio of 1X1.
My bias is to have mostly short calls and trade long against these calls, a few reasons why I like that approach is that you are less exposed to quick down moves and volatility expansion.
Remember to watch Tuesday's Top Notch:
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/14/top-notch-key-levels/
That is all for today, Good luck and take care.
Wednesday 15th of September
The S&P futures failed to break Tuesday's high of 1122.50, but still managed to close in the upper end of the daily range. Could we be looking at a similar top that we had in August, when it topped out around the same level over a few days and dropped sharply lower within the next few days.
We now have 2 days left of the expiration week and we normally have one wide down day during the expiration week, so with failure at 1122 again Wednesday, it might be Thursday the down day comes in?
S&P futures have topped out in this 1122's level both in June and August previously.
http://chart.ly/wimh2uk
So we either top out again or break higher within the next few days I reckon.
Expect a strong move in either direction basically.
We still have the gap down at 1105.75 from Friday to be filled and the 31st of August that is some way off at the moment.
Trading wise I made net +3 points on the S&P futures, was not long enough towards the top end of the range and was looking for the gap down at 1105.75 to be filled early on, which had me a bit late to get long when it found support at 1109. Still expect the 1125 level to hold on the upside and a test lower towards at least 1105.75 before it breaks higher.
I sold some more 1110 September puts in the start of the session and them out when prices test 1120 towards the end of the session and moved the short October 1090 calls to a 1130 (got 19 points for the 1130) calls to get the strike above the 1125 key resistance. I also closed out the 1040 October puts from last week (made about 10 points on it) and sold 1090 October puts instead to collect more premium, then I now have nothing below 1060, so plenty of room to sell put below or towards the 1037 key support in case it breaks lower. The short puts at 1130 that I have a hedges with expiration on Friday was reduced and only have a tine position left in those puts.
That is all for today, good luck and take care
The S&P futures failed to break Tuesday's high of 1122.50, but still managed to close in the upper end of the daily range. Could we be looking at a similar top that we had in August, when it topped out around the same level over a few days and dropped sharply lower within the next few days.
We now have 2 days left of the expiration week and we normally have one wide down day during the expiration week, so with failure at 1122 again Wednesday, it might be Thursday the down day comes in?
S&P futures have topped out in this 1122's level both in June and August previously.
http://chart.ly/wimh2uk
So we either top out again or break higher within the next few days I reckon.
Expect a strong move in either direction basically.
We still have the gap down at 1105.75 from Friday to be filled and the 31st of August that is some way off at the moment.
Trading wise I made net +3 points on the S&P futures, was not long enough towards the top end of the range and was looking for the gap down at 1105.75 to be filled early on, which had me a bit late to get long when it found support at 1109. Still expect the 1125 level to hold on the upside and a test lower towards at least 1105.75 before it breaks higher.
I sold some more 1110 September puts in the start of the session and them out when prices test 1120 towards the end of the session and moved the short October 1090 calls to a 1130 (got 19 points for the 1130) calls to get the strike above the 1125 key resistance. I also closed out the 1040 October puts from last week (made about 10 points on it) and sold 1090 October puts instead to collect more premium, then I now have nothing below 1060, so plenty of room to sell put below or towards the 1037 key support in case it breaks lower. The short puts at 1130 that I have a hedges with expiration on Friday was reduced and only have a tine position left in those puts.
That is all for today, good luck and take care
Thursday 16th of September
Thursday we saw the S&P futures make a higher low compared to Wednesday and it broker above the key resistance at 1122.90 in late trading to close at the top of the daily range.
However we normally get one wide down day during the options expirations week and we had not any wide down days so far this week and with one day to go, I have to keep the chances open that it will be a wide down day on Friday and that the break higher will not sustain. All tricky in the key area as I suspect we will see a rather strong move off these area (1125) in either direction. The move overnight higher above 1130 looks like stops got triggered and of course wouldn't be perfect to take out these buy stops and drop the market lower?
Was still looking for a possible fill of that gap at 1105.75 today, but couldn't take out the 1109 low from previous day, so didn't really get close to doing that.
Trading wise I made about 4 points on the day on futures trading long. The break above 1122 forced me to go long to protect some of the short calls above 1120 and upwards in case it would break higher.
I also sold a 1100 put for 30 September exipration as a bit of hedge against the short calls, getting 9.50 for those. I did take profit on the short 1120 and 1130 puts for expiration tomorrow (Friday), so have no open options for expiration Friday left now
That is all for today, good luck , take care.
Thursday we saw the S&P futures make a higher low compared to Wednesday and it broker above the key resistance at 1122.90 in late trading to close at the top of the daily range.
However we normally get one wide down day during the options expirations week and we had not any wide down days so far this week and with one day to go, I have to keep the chances open that it will be a wide down day on Friday and that the break higher will not sustain. All tricky in the key area as I suspect we will see a rather strong move off these area (1125) in either direction. The move overnight higher above 1130 looks like stops got triggered and of course wouldn't be perfect to take out these buy stops and drop the market lower?
Was still looking for a possible fill of that gap at 1105.75 today, but couldn't take out the 1109 low from previous day, so didn't really get close to doing that.
Trading wise I made about 4 points on the day on futures trading long. The break above 1122 forced me to go long to protect some of the short calls above 1120 and upwards in case it would break higher.
I also sold a 1100 put for 30 September exipration as a bit of hedge against the short calls, getting 9.50 for those. I did take profit on the short 1120 and 1130 puts for expiration tomorrow (Friday), so have no open options for expiration Friday left now
That is all for today, good luck , take care.
Friday 17th of September
Good evening,
Will keep it short as the weekend is right around the corner.
It looks like stops were triggered overnight as it broke above 1127 in S&P futures (ES), making a high of 1132.75 in Globex session. However we opened much lower at 1125.75 and closed below yesterday's close, which signals weakness to me. The Euro also selling off towards the afternoon with AUDUSD move down 100 pips from the high also signals that the risk on trade overnight might be short lived for now.
For the trading I had to trade long in the ES to protect against the short calls from 1120 and up, which saw me lose 6 points in total on the day. Overnight I actually sold a bit more 1160 and 1150 calls for October and November in case this break turns out to be a false break. I also turned the short calls at 1120 into a short straddle position with selling the 1120 puts for October.
Basically sitting with calls from 1130 to 1160 now, with puts from 1100 and downwards to 1060. I always try to stay as dynamic as possible and follow the market and adjust to new developments and I will continue that very much next week as I would like to increase the distance between some of the strikes a bit, especially if we move above 1135 I will roll some of the 1140 and 1150 to higher strikes.
This week turned out more or less flat, but I am very well positioned if the market would break lower at the moment. If it breaks higher I have to make further adjustments, but expect the volatility then to drop even further, which would help my short options portfolio.
Have a great weekend, take care
Good evening,
Will keep it short as the weekend is right around the corner.
It looks like stops were triggered overnight as it broke above 1127 in S&P futures (ES), making a high of 1132.75 in Globex session. However we opened much lower at 1125.75 and closed below yesterday's close, which signals weakness to me. The Euro also selling off towards the afternoon with AUDUSD move down 100 pips from the high also signals that the risk on trade overnight might be short lived for now.
For the trading I had to trade long in the ES to protect against the short calls from 1120 and up, which saw me lose 6 points in total on the day. Overnight I actually sold a bit more 1160 and 1150 calls for October and November in case this break turns out to be a false break. I also turned the short calls at 1120 into a short straddle position with selling the 1120 puts for October.
Basically sitting with calls from 1130 to 1160 now, with puts from 1100 and downwards to 1060. I always try to stay as dynamic as possible and follow the market and adjust to new developments and I will continue that very much next week as I would like to increase the distance between some of the strikes a bit, especially if we move above 1135 I will roll some of the 1140 and 1150 to higher strikes.
This week turned out more or less flat, but I am very well positioned if the market would break lower at the moment. If it breaks higher I have to make further adjustments, but expect the volatility then to drop even further, which would help my short options portfolio.
Have a great weekend, take care
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Monday 20th of September
S&P futures gapped 4.25 points higher at the open and made a move lower initially before total take off as buy stops were triggered on the break above the Friday high at 1126.75. Traded up to a high of 1140.25 before closing 1136.50.
I am a bit uncertain on this break higher as the volume on the break was very low, which appears to be mostly stops getting triggered and not fresh buying.
If we have no fresh buying this move will not extend.
We also have heavy resistance from 1144 up to 1163, which is a tough task ahead.
S&P futures is now in the upper part of the range seen since May.
Will be interesting to see what this week brings.
I have the feeling that we will most likely see a substantial move in either direction off the current level, just not sure which direction yet.
I would be more comfortable of a break higher if we had seen a dip first lower then this break higher, but the direct break higher with a basically a straight line move higher since 31st of August of 106 points from low to high is a bit too quick and risk a fair amount of selling coming in.
Trading wise I was a bit too conservative to the long side and made "only" 5.50 points on the day trading both long and short. As the move was 16.75 higher it was not enough to offset the move in the short calls I have from 1120 and up, so I had to make a bunch of adjustments that positions me quite well for a move in both direction from here.
I bot back 1120 calls for October when it broke 1130 on ES and instead sold 1140's to get more "theta" and remove some long delta.
I took profit on the 1060 puts as these got down to 5 point and figured it was no point keeping the risk on that they come into play on a quick down move where the volatility would increase quite a lot as well, making these 1060 puts rise in value quickly. I did the same with the 1100 short puts for 30th of September, closed them for a decent profit.
I instead sold some 1100 for October to increase the premium and did a very small 1080 short put for November, just to have as hedge the 1170's short calls that I sold a bit more of Monday.
I also turned the 1130's calls into a short straddle selling the 1130 put for October to have a bit more balanced Delta in the portfolio, was getting a touch too much short on the call side.
I want to see more volume to the upside and break above 1145 to really get excited on the long side for the moment.
Make sure to watch Monday's Mr Topstep, very interesting:
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/20/market-wizards/
That is all for today. Best of luck, take care.
S&P futures gapped 4.25 points higher at the open and made a move lower initially before total take off as buy stops were triggered on the break above the Friday high at 1126.75. Traded up to a high of 1140.25 before closing 1136.50.
I am a bit uncertain on this break higher as the volume on the break was very low, which appears to be mostly stops getting triggered and not fresh buying.
If we have no fresh buying this move will not extend.
We also have heavy resistance from 1144 up to 1163, which is a tough task ahead.
S&P futures is now in the upper part of the range seen since May.
Will be interesting to see what this week brings.
I have the feeling that we will most likely see a substantial move in either direction off the current level, just not sure which direction yet.
I would be more comfortable of a break higher if we had seen a dip first lower then this break higher, but the direct break higher with a basically a straight line move higher since 31st of August of 106 points from low to high is a bit too quick and risk a fair amount of selling coming in.
Trading wise I was a bit too conservative to the long side and made "only" 5.50 points on the day trading both long and short. As the move was 16.75 higher it was not enough to offset the move in the short calls I have from 1120 and up, so I had to make a bunch of adjustments that positions me quite well for a move in both direction from here.
I bot back 1120 calls for October when it broke 1130 on ES and instead sold 1140's to get more "theta" and remove some long delta.
I took profit on the 1060 puts as these got down to 5 point and figured it was no point keeping the risk on that they come into play on a quick down move where the volatility would increase quite a lot as well, making these 1060 puts rise in value quickly. I did the same with the 1100 short puts for 30th of September, closed them for a decent profit.
I instead sold some 1100 for October to increase the premium and did a very small 1080 short put for November, just to have as hedge the 1170's short calls that I sold a bit more of Monday.
I also turned the 1130's calls into a short straddle selling the 1130 put for October to have a bit more balanced Delta in the portfolio, was getting a touch too much short on the call side.
I want to see more volume to the upside and break above 1145 to really get excited on the long side for the moment.
Make sure to watch Monday's Mr Topstep, very interesting:
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/20/market-wizards/
That is all for today. Best of luck, take care.
Tuesday 21st of September
FOMC held rates unchanged and signaled possible more QE, which sent the S&P futures higher, but it stopped just shy of that gap at 1144.75 13th of May and the high was 1144 yesterday, so that gap is still not filled. As I mentioned a few times over the last days, there are some serious resistance levels from 1144.75 up to 1163 and as long as we remain below 1144.75.
I favor a move back and fill the 1105.75 gap from 10th of September, before we go higher.
As for the trading it was an active day trading just above 30 trades in the ES and making 9 points trading to the long side. I was not enough long though to make up for the rise in value on the short calls I have above 1130 and up to 1170, but I made up a bunch of that loss when I closed the longs at 1142 and 1143 as I wanted to see if 1145 would hold and it did. So as the market went lower off this 1144 high the lack of long to the upside was at least somewhat made back on the way down.
As for the options I did the following adjustments.
Right after I had closed the ES longs I actually sold some 1140 puts for expiration Friday as a hedge and also sold some 1140 calls for Friday when it broke below 1137, just for hedge as I was scaling in long and it looked like a false break, so it made sense to sell some more premium in that key area. I got 6.50 points for those 1140 calls for Friday.
I sold some 1090 puts actually prior to FOMC as I wanted to balance the delta a bit more. I bought back some of the 1130 short calls just after the FOMC and sold 1130 put instead and sold higher strikes at 1150 for October (receiving around on average 16 points) and 1170 calls (for 18.50 points up to 19.50 points).
I now have basically a short straddle at 1130, with calls above 1140 up to 1170 for expiration October and November. I have short puts down at 1100 and 1090 for October and small position in short 1080 puts for November.
The strategy over the next sessions will now be to hedge and be active on the long side above 1130 or so. If it breaks above 1145 I have to again make a bunch of adjustments as I would be a bit too short calls if that level breaks.
To the downside I will not make any big options adjustments for the moment unless 1105 breaks.
I basically have the downside under 1080 free to sell puts if we come down below 1105 and the vols would rise if we go lower it does not make sense to sell much downside just yet, unless 1145 breaks of course then I have to put on a bit more downside. Also keep in mind that my puts are expiring in October, so lots of Theta in them the last 3 weeks.
That is all for now, havea a nice evening
FOMC held rates unchanged and signaled possible more QE, which sent the S&P futures higher, but it stopped just shy of that gap at 1144.75 13th of May and the high was 1144 yesterday, so that gap is still not filled. As I mentioned a few times over the last days, there are some serious resistance levels from 1144.75 up to 1163 and as long as we remain below 1144.75.
I favor a move back and fill the 1105.75 gap from 10th of September, before we go higher.
As for the trading it was an active day trading just above 30 trades in the ES and making 9 points trading to the long side. I was not enough long though to make up for the rise in value on the short calls I have above 1130 and up to 1170, but I made up a bunch of that loss when I closed the longs at 1142 and 1143 as I wanted to see if 1145 would hold and it did. So as the market went lower off this 1144 high the lack of long to the upside was at least somewhat made back on the way down.
As for the options I did the following adjustments.
Right after I had closed the ES longs I actually sold some 1140 puts for expiration Friday as a hedge and also sold some 1140 calls for Friday when it broke below 1137, just for hedge as I was scaling in long and it looked like a false break, so it made sense to sell some more premium in that key area. I got 6.50 points for those 1140 calls for Friday.
I sold some 1090 puts actually prior to FOMC as I wanted to balance the delta a bit more. I bought back some of the 1130 short calls just after the FOMC and sold 1130 put instead and sold higher strikes at 1150 for October (receiving around on average 16 points) and 1170 calls (for 18.50 points up to 19.50 points).
I now have basically a short straddle at 1130, with calls above 1140 up to 1170 for expiration October and November. I have short puts down at 1100 and 1090 for October and small position in short 1080 puts for November.
The strategy over the next sessions will now be to hedge and be active on the long side above 1130 or so. If it breaks above 1145 I have to again make a bunch of adjustments as I would be a bit too short calls if that level breaks.
To the downside I will not make any big options adjustments for the moment unless 1105 breaks.
I basically have the downside under 1080 free to sell puts if we come down below 1105 and the vols would rise if we go lower it does not make sense to sell much downside just yet, unless 1145 breaks of course then I have to put on a bit more downside. Also keep in mind that my puts are expiring in October, so lots of Theta in them the last 3 weeks.
That is all for now, havea a nice evening
Wednesday 22nd of September
After the S&P futures stopped short of filling that gap at 1144.75 Tuesday I was expecting a move lower and my next target is for a fill of that gap down at 1105.75.
The volume today was quite light and although the close was in the lower end of the range it seems the selling pressure was limited since it was no real volume expansion on the move lower. It was not really close to testing that previous break out level at 1122. The daily low was at 1126.
Trading wise I traded long during the day to hedge the short calls, but sold out a bit too much when 1130 broke and not quick enough to get back long.
Lost 7.2 points in the futures on the day, but since the short calls fell in value the portfolio rose 0.98% on the day.
In the options portfolio I bot back some of the short 1130 and 1140 calls early on in the Globex session and also sold 1120 puts to hedge a bit of the short delta.
When it was apparent that 1144.75 resistance level would not break I sold some of the 1130 calls again.
All in all a fairly quiet day, take care everybody.
After the S&P futures stopped short of filling that gap at 1144.75 Tuesday I was expecting a move lower and my next target is for a fill of that gap down at 1105.75.
The volume today was quite light and although the close was in the lower end of the range it seems the selling pressure was limited since it was no real volume expansion on the move lower. It was not really close to testing that previous break out level at 1122. The daily low was at 1126.
Trading wise I traded long during the day to hedge the short calls, but sold out a bit too much when 1130 broke and not quick enough to get back long.
Lost 7.2 points in the futures on the day, but since the short calls fell in value the portfolio rose 0.98% on the day.
In the options portfolio I bot back some of the short 1130 and 1140 calls early on in the Globex session and also sold 1120 puts to hedge a bit of the short delta.
When it was apparent that 1144.75 resistance level would not break I sold some of the 1130 calls again.
All in all a fairly quiet day, take care everybody.
Thursday 23rd of September
Finally broke below the 1122 as I expected but no real follow through and my target at 1105.75 (gap from 10th of September) was never really in reach. The daily low was at 1117.25 on increasing volume, so that signaled increased selling pressure. The volume was above the 50 day average, trading 2.190m contracts on the day.
Tomorrow will confirm if this was indeed selling pressure or buying into the dip.
Trading wise I still had to hedge some of the short delta being long the ES futures, so I lost 6.9 points in the futures and being a bit too much long I lost -0.41% on the day overall.
I did only 2 changes to the options portfolio, I bot back some of the 1130 calls when it rebounded over 1120 as I wanted to reduce the short delta exposure a bit and I also sold some 1100 puts for September for around 15.50 points to get a bit more balance in the options portfolio.
That is all for today, see you later, take care.
Finally broke below the 1122 as I expected but no real follow through and my target at 1105.75 (gap from 10th of September) was never really in reach. The daily low was at 1117.25 on increasing volume, so that signaled increased selling pressure. The volume was above the 50 day average, trading 2.190m contracts on the day.
Tomorrow will confirm if this was indeed selling pressure or buying into the dip.
Trading wise I still had to hedge some of the short delta being long the ES futures, so I lost 6.9 points in the futures and being a bit too much long I lost -0.41% on the day overall.
I did only 2 changes to the options portfolio, I bot back some of the 1130 calls when it rebounded over 1120 as I wanted to reduce the short delta exposure a bit and I also sold some 1100 puts for September for around 15.50 points to get a bit more balance in the options portfolio.
That is all for today, see you later, take care.
Friday 24th of September
S&P futures (ES) tested lower in Globex session, but Thursday low at 1117.25 held overnight and it basically traded to the upside for the rest of the day, closing right at the top of the daily range at 1143.50. The break above Thursday's high at 1132.25 it took off like a rocket.
We still have that 1144.75 gap open, it was not filled today either, the high was 1144.50. Maybe I am being a bit picky now as it missed by 0.25 points only, but again it still a key level around that 1145 to 1150 level that we need to see a daily close above to extend higher.
Trading wise I made 11.92 points trading long in the ES, still not long enough as I have bunch of short calls above 1130 up to 1170, so portfolio wise the value dropped 1.74% on the day.
I still feel more comfortable being a bit too short here as chart wise it looks tough to break much higher at the moment. Another thing is that all but one of the short puts positions expire in October and therefore I prefer to avoid a large sell off before they expire and if it drops I would benefit since I am a bit too short.
The risk is of course a quick break out higher, but below 1145 to 1150 that looks unlikely.
Another point about Friday's candle is that it could be possible "no demand" bar as the candle is fairly narrow on volume lower than previous few days. However we need to see some confirmation before I would really act on that signal.
Options wise I made the following changes:
When it broke 1133 I had to make some changes, as it looked like downside was well supported for now.
I took profit on some of the short 1090 puts, as the value on that position dropped to 7 points and I don't want too many options to far out of the money to the down side as any quick move to the downside would increase the value of these out of the money puts rapidly.
Instead I sold the 1130 puts that are close to the money and have much more premium in them, for 14.50 points. I also bot back a bit of the 1100 puts for the same reasons as the 1090.
I bot back the 1130 calls and sold small position of 1140 puts (getting 10.50 points) for 1st of October expiration and sold calls at 1150 for October. Lastly I did sell 1170 calls for November for 21 points, leaving me with break even of 1191 on those.
I see the 1170 level as being far enough above the 1145 to 1150 resistance zone that if 1170 would come into play the options down below 1140 is most likely either expired already or have very little theta left. Also that break even of 1191 is only about 16.50 points below the yearly high that makes it prefect to roll positions above that 1207.50 level in case we hit 1191.
So now I basically have calls from 1140 and up to 1170 at 10 points interval and puts from 1140 and down to 1090.
Next week will be key to determine if this week’s move higher is for real or not.
Remember we have end of quarter on Thursday.
That was all for now, have a nice weekend.
S&P futures (ES) tested lower in Globex session, but Thursday low at 1117.25 held overnight and it basically traded to the upside for the rest of the day, closing right at the top of the daily range at 1143.50. The break above Thursday's high at 1132.25 it took off like a rocket.
We still have that 1144.75 gap open, it was not filled today either, the high was 1144.50. Maybe I am being a bit picky now as it missed by 0.25 points only, but again it still a key level around that 1145 to 1150 level that we need to see a daily close above to extend higher.
Trading wise I made 11.92 points trading long in the ES, still not long enough as I have bunch of short calls above 1130 up to 1170, so portfolio wise the value dropped 1.74% on the day.
I still feel more comfortable being a bit too short here as chart wise it looks tough to break much higher at the moment. Another thing is that all but one of the short puts positions expire in October and therefore I prefer to avoid a large sell off before they expire and if it drops I would benefit since I am a bit too short.
The risk is of course a quick break out higher, but below 1145 to 1150 that looks unlikely.
Another point about Friday's candle is that it could be possible "no demand" bar as the candle is fairly narrow on volume lower than previous few days. However we need to see some confirmation before I would really act on that signal.
Options wise I made the following changes:
When it broke 1133 I had to make some changes, as it looked like downside was well supported for now.
I took profit on some of the short 1090 puts, as the value on that position dropped to 7 points and I don't want too many options to far out of the money to the down side as any quick move to the downside would increase the value of these out of the money puts rapidly.
Instead I sold the 1130 puts that are close to the money and have much more premium in them, for 14.50 points. I also bot back a bit of the 1100 puts for the same reasons as the 1090.
I bot back the 1130 calls and sold small position of 1140 puts (getting 10.50 points) for 1st of October expiration and sold calls at 1150 for October. Lastly I did sell 1170 calls for November for 21 points, leaving me with break even of 1191 on those.
I see the 1170 level as being far enough above the 1145 to 1150 resistance zone that if 1170 would come into play the options down below 1140 is most likely either expired already or have very little theta left. Also that break even of 1191 is only about 16.50 points below the yearly high that makes it prefect to roll positions above that 1207.50 level in case we hit 1191.
So now I basically have calls from 1140 and up to 1170 at 10 points interval and puts from 1140 and down to 1090.
Next week will be key to determine if this week’s move higher is for real or not.
Remember we have end of quarter on Thursday.
That was all for now, have a nice weekend.
Monday 27th of September
The S&P futures (ES) triggered stops in the Asian hours sending it up to a high of 1149.75.
However it was not able to get above that 1150 level that I have outlined a few times last weeks.
The open was at 1145 so that means the gap from 13th of May is actually filled now.
It traded lower on light volume and closed at 1137.75 on the lows for the day pretty much. The lack of volume signals to me that it was limited selling pressure on the day and we have to see expansion in the volume to the downside to really get a sell of lower.
Trading wise it was a slow day and I had to get long ES on the break higher in Asia, but sold a bit back when it broke back below 1144. I also closed the VIX options structure I had (long Nov 27.50 call and short Oct 30 call, 1x1 ratio) for a 12% gain.
I lost 6.5 points on the ES futures trading today, which is ok as I had to stay a bit long to hedge the short delta I have on the options portfolio since I have overweight of short calls at the moment.
However since the value of the portfolio rise when the S&P drops since I am short delta the portfolio in total rose by 0.25% on the day.
I made no adjustments to the options today.
Make sure to see the comments from Mr. TopStep regarding the walk away trade in this video:
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/27/mr-topstep-in-hd/
I agree with Mr. Topstep as basically as long as 1150 holds I expect a drive lower.
Remember that US nonfarm payrolls not out until next Friday.
That is all for now, have a great day
The S&P futures (ES) triggered stops in the Asian hours sending it up to a high of 1149.75.
However it was not able to get above that 1150 level that I have outlined a few times last weeks.
The open was at 1145 so that means the gap from 13th of May is actually filled now.
It traded lower on light volume and closed at 1137.75 on the lows for the day pretty much. The lack of volume signals to me that it was limited selling pressure on the day and we have to see expansion in the volume to the downside to really get a sell of lower.
Trading wise it was a slow day and I had to get long ES on the break higher in Asia, but sold a bit back when it broke back below 1144. I also closed the VIX options structure I had (long Nov 27.50 call and short Oct 30 call, 1x1 ratio) for a 12% gain.
I lost 6.5 points on the ES futures trading today, which is ok as I had to stay a bit long to hedge the short delta I have on the options portfolio since I have overweight of short calls at the moment.
However since the value of the portfolio rise when the S&P drops since I am short delta the portfolio in total rose by 0.25% on the day.
I made no adjustments to the options today.
Make sure to see the comments from Mr. TopStep regarding the walk away trade in this video:
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/27/mr-topstep-in-hd/
I agree with Mr. Topstep as basically as long as 1150 holds I expect a drive lower.
Remember that US nonfarm payrolls not out until next Friday.
That is all for now, have a great day
Tuesday 28th of September
Good day,
We now have 2 sessions left of the quarter and it will be interesting to see if we have an end of the quarter sell off?
Tuesday price action was a bit like expected following the down day Monday, it drove lower off the open and hit 1127.50 low. We then saw some massive volume, at least relative to recent days, coming in at that low level. The 5min bar traded more than 114k contracts, which is the most we have seen on any 5min bar over the last 2 weeks. The significance of these high volume bars is important because most reversals start with a high volume bar. The higher volume the stronger the reaction off that level often tend to be. One thing to note is also the seasonal and relative factor.
114k contracts is maybe not much in November or some other time of the year when we see higher daily volumes, but it was certainly noteworthy for current conditions. I pay more attention in terms of relative value than the actual number of contracts. Is that bar standing out to recent things we have seen? If the answer Of course I also look at other time frames to judge the volume in an interest area.
Another thing to note is that the low last Wednesday was 1126.50, so that was fairly close to Tuesday's low as well.
On the options trading I did the following changes:
I bot back the 1090 and 1100 puts (at 7 and 6 points) and sold a small 1120 puts position (at 11 points) instead to get more premium and decrease the risk to the downside if we see a larger move.
I also bot back the 1140 short call for 19's and instead sold a 1140 put for expiration Friday.
On the futures side the net result was -7.2 points on the day and the total result of the day for the portfolio was -0,16%.
On the open position side I still have net short delta with more calls than puts.
That is all for now, have a great day.
Good day,
We now have 2 sessions left of the quarter and it will be interesting to see if we have an end of the quarter sell off?
Tuesday price action was a bit like expected following the down day Monday, it drove lower off the open and hit 1127.50 low. We then saw some massive volume, at least relative to recent days, coming in at that low level. The 5min bar traded more than 114k contracts, which is the most we have seen on any 5min bar over the last 2 weeks. The significance of these high volume bars is important because most reversals start with a high volume bar. The higher volume the stronger the reaction off that level often tend to be. One thing to note is also the seasonal and relative factor.
114k contracts is maybe not much in November or some other time of the year when we see higher daily volumes, but it was certainly noteworthy for current conditions. I pay more attention in terms of relative value than the actual number of contracts. Is that bar standing out to recent things we have seen? If the answer Of course I also look at other time frames to judge the volume in an interest area.
Another thing to note is that the low last Wednesday was 1126.50, so that was fairly close to Tuesday's low as well.
On the options trading I did the following changes:
I bot back the 1090 and 1100 puts (at 7 and 6 points) and sold a small 1120 puts position (at 11 points) instead to get more premium and decrease the risk to the downside if we see a larger move.
I also bot back the 1140 short call for 19's and instead sold a 1140 put for expiration Friday.
On the futures side the net result was -7.2 points on the day and the total result of the day for the portfolio was -0,16%.
On the open position side I still have net short delta with more calls than puts.
That is all for now, have a great day.
Thursday 30th of September
This is Wed 29 Sep, not Thursday as the post says
We had an inside day Wednesday on the S&P futures, meaning trading range was inside the previous day range's. The total range today was only 9 points, smallest range since 13th of September where we had 8.25 points range.
We now have 1 day left of the quarter and would not be suprised to see a major move tomorrow.
I would like to mention a few key levels in the S&P Emini futures (ES).
To the upside we have 1156 that was the high on the flash crash day and 1163 (13/5 high), so solid resistance above us here.
Looking at the hour chart we have yesterday's low as a key level since we had major volume coming in there.
The next support level is then 1122 (break out level) and 1105.75 (open gap from 11th of September).
Trading wise I had a weak day, as I was looking for a larger move and was looking for a break lower and sold weakness, but it basically bounced every time and turned into stop outs. A bit surprised to see such a tight range day going into the quarter end.
Net result was -9.8 points on the futures and -1,63% on the day for the total portfolio.
I did not make any changes to the options portfolio.
New day tomorrow, have a great evening
This is Wed 29 Sep, not Thursday as the post says
We had an inside day Wednesday on the S&P futures, meaning trading range was inside the previous day range's. The total range today was only 9 points, smallest range since 13th of September where we had 8.25 points range.
We now have 1 day left of the quarter and would not be suprised to see a major move tomorrow.
I would like to mention a few key levels in the S&P Emini futures (ES).
To the upside we have 1156 that was the high on the flash crash day and 1163 (13/5 high), so solid resistance above us here.
Looking at the hour chart we have yesterday's low as a key level since we had major volume coming in there.
The next support level is then 1122 (break out level) and 1105.75 (open gap from 11th of September).
Trading wise I had a weak day, as I was looking for a larger move and was looking for a break lower and sold weakness, but it basically bounced every time and turned into stop outs. A bit surprised to see such a tight range day going into the quarter end.
Net result was -9.8 points on the futures and -1,63% on the day for the total portfolio.
I did not make any changes to the options portfolio.
New day tomorrow, have a great evening
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The correct Thursday 30th of September
The S&P emini futures broke above the key 1150 resistance level right at the start of the floor trading session and failed at 1153.50 where we saw a lot of volume coming in. It traded more than 122k contracts on the 5min break out bar and also did 573 contracts the first hour. All that volume was selling of course and late longs got sucked into the market and short got stopped out, then the market reversed lower and we did drop 21.25 points in 2 hours after the break and made a low at 1131.25 and then traded more or less sideways for the rest of the day.
A note that I saw when looking over the 60min chart is that the reversals this week all was made when we had more than 500k contracts traded on the ES on the hourly bar.
Link to chart image here: http://chart.ly/o56eppa
One thing I want to say on the selloff Thursday is that the price action and volume towards the close was not that bearish actually. If it was really bearish we should have seen strong selling towards the close and break below 1127 in my opinion.
We now have 2 major areas to watch, 2 levels we saw those two major reversals of this week, which are; the 1153.50 to the upside and 1127.50 to the downside. Keep those levels in mind going forward?
Trading wise I was forced to buy the break to protect the short calls I have on and I was a bit slow to close the long, so in the futures I lost 6 points.
However since I was less long then my negative delta when the market dropped the day turned out quite well in the end. Made 1.17% on the day all in.
Options wise I did the following trades:
I bot back the 1100's puts for October at 5.75 points, was quite cheap and no point risking that option coming back into play if this move higher reverses.
I really don't want to leave very low value out of the money options open as they can hit me if we see a big move. I rather buy them back and sell another strike with much higher premium closer to the market price.
I also bot back some 1140 calls for October on the break higher to reduce my negative delta and instead sold 1150 and 1160 for October when the move started to fail. I did also sell calls at 1180 for Nov, getting around 18.50 to 19 for those.
When we trade back below 1135 I also added some 1080 puts for November for 18 points, so balance the negative delta a bit.
I still think we have a good chance at going lower before we break above 1160, but we need to close below 1127 next few sessions to go lower. Simply put one can say that above 1127 the bias is bullish.
today's Mr Topstep: http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/30/ffffade-away-day/
That is all for today, have a great day, take care
The S&P emini futures broke above the key 1150 resistance level right at the start of the floor trading session and failed at 1153.50 where we saw a lot of volume coming in. It traded more than 122k contracts on the 5min break out bar and also did 573 contracts the first hour. All that volume was selling of course and late longs got sucked into the market and short got stopped out, then the market reversed lower and we did drop 21.25 points in 2 hours after the break and made a low at 1131.25 and then traded more or less sideways for the rest of the day.
A note that I saw when looking over the 60min chart is that the reversals this week all was made when we had more than 500k contracts traded on the ES on the hourly bar.
Link to chart image here: http://chart.ly/o56eppa
One thing I want to say on the selloff Thursday is that the price action and volume towards the close was not that bearish actually. If it was really bearish we should have seen strong selling towards the close and break below 1127 in my opinion.
We now have 2 major areas to watch, 2 levels we saw those two major reversals of this week, which are; the 1153.50 to the upside and 1127.50 to the downside. Keep those levels in mind going forward?
Trading wise I was forced to buy the break to protect the short calls I have on and I was a bit slow to close the long, so in the futures I lost 6 points.
However since I was less long then my negative delta when the market dropped the day turned out quite well in the end. Made 1.17% on the day all in.
Options wise I did the following trades:
I bot back the 1100's puts for October at 5.75 points, was quite cheap and no point risking that option coming back into play if this move higher reverses.
I really don't want to leave very low value out of the money options open as they can hit me if we see a big move. I rather buy them back and sell another strike with much higher premium closer to the market price.
I also bot back some 1140 calls for October on the break higher to reduce my negative delta and instead sold 1150 and 1160 for October when the move started to fail. I did also sell calls at 1180 for Nov, getting around 18.50 to 19 for those.
When we trade back below 1135 I also added some 1080 puts for November for 18 points, so balance the negative delta a bit.
I still think we have a good chance at going lower before we break above 1160, but we need to close below 1127 next few sessions to go lower. Simply put one can say that above 1127 the bias is bullish.
today's Mr Topstep: http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/30/ffffade-away-day/
That is all for today, have a great day, take care
Friday 1st of October
Welcome to the 4th Quarter, normally the best 6 months period for stock market is from November through April. Regarding October, historically has been the 7th best month for the Dow, stocks rising 57 % of the time since the index was founded 113 years ago.
The S&P futures had an inside day today, trading inside the previous day's range and the today's range was 12 points (1134.50 low to 1146.50 high)
Trading wise I mainly concentrated on trading the expiring weekly contracts on ES, selling calls puts on the 1140 level for expiration today and hedging in the futures and we went up and down the range. I made about 2 points in the futures and good amount in the options and ending the day 0,86% higher on the day.
The only change I did outside of the expiring options for today was to sell some 1140 calls for 8 Oct. and some 1130 puts for 8 Oct. that I trade out of the start of next week. Received 19 points for selling that spread.
I also bot 79 put in Crude oil (CL) for expiration October, paying 0,90 to 0,91 for the trade.
Would like to remind that the key levels in ES are 1153.50 and 1127.25, basically the week's high and lows, important levels for next week as those are the levels to break to make a more directional move. Still have that gap down at 1105.75 also that I have noted down as possible downside target.
That is all for now, take care.
Welcome to the 4th Quarter, normally the best 6 months period for stock market is from November through April. Regarding October, historically has been the 7th best month for the Dow, stocks rising 57 % of the time since the index was founded 113 years ago.
The S&P futures had an inside day today, trading inside the previous day's range and the today's range was 12 points (1134.50 low to 1146.50 high)
Trading wise I mainly concentrated on trading the expiring weekly contracts on ES, selling calls puts on the 1140 level for expiration today and hedging in the futures and we went up and down the range. I made about 2 points in the futures and good amount in the options and ending the day 0,86% higher on the day.
The only change I did outside of the expiring options for today was to sell some 1140 calls for 8 Oct. and some 1130 puts for 8 Oct. that I trade out of the start of next week. Received 19 points for selling that spread.
I also bot 79 put in Crude oil (CL) for expiration October, paying 0,90 to 0,91 for the trade.
Would like to remind that the key levels in ES are 1153.50 and 1127.25, basically the week's high and lows, important levels for next week as those are the levels to break to make a more directional move. Still have that gap down at 1105.75 also that I have noted down as possible downside target.
That is all for now, take care.
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Monday 4th of October
The S&P futures trading down 7.5 points, but found support down at last weeks low 1127 level and closed well off the low, which indicates some buying, otherwise it would have flushed through the close.
Another thing to note is that the volume was lower than 2 previous bars and it was unlikely to break that 1127 low on reduced volume. Remember that the key volume areas we have are 1127 and 1153.50. The low looks like a successful test, see link:
http://chart.ly/y43ytwm
To the trading,
lost 13 points on the futures trading as I was hedging the long calls I had to have some long exposure on the drop. Still ended the day up 1.24% on the day as the short calls declined more in value that the what I lost on the futures.
In the options portfolio I made some minor changes, bot back some of the short 1150 calls for October and also sold 1135 call for expiration Friday to get a bit more premium in.
That is all for today, good luck
The S&P futures trading down 7.5 points, but found support down at last weeks low 1127 level and closed well off the low, which indicates some buying, otherwise it would have flushed through the close.
Another thing to note is that the volume was lower than 2 previous bars and it was unlikely to break that 1127 low on reduced volume. Remember that the key volume areas we have are 1127 and 1153.50. The low looks like a successful test, see link:
http://chart.ly/y43ytwm
To the trading,
lost 13 points on the futures trading as I was hedging the long calls I had to have some long exposure on the drop. Still ended the day up 1.24% on the day as the short calls declined more in value that the what I lost on the futures.
In the options portfolio I made some minor changes, bot back some of the short 1150 calls for October and also sold 1135 call for expiration Friday to get a bit more premium in.
That is all for today, good luck
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