My Daily Bread

[cashmagnet]

I will use this journal to track my futures trading activity. I am not a professional nor do I support myself solely by trading. My greatest wish is to be skilled enough to draw an income from trading.

I consider myself at this point a skilled trader. I say this more to instill in my mind the idea that I am a trader. What I know are the basics by which all traders operate with and just because I am not wildly successful at it does not make me less of a trader. I can go in and extract money from the market on a daily basis. I know how to trade .
What I fail at doing is letting my winners run and secondly, not having enough discipline to stop myself from entering low probability trades.

I will trade only futures . Recently, I suffered a 14% loss in my balance because of a stupid trade I did during AHT. The market had run up strongly during regular trading hours in response to the FED coming out with some news regarding QE. I thought for sure there would be a slight pull back during afterhourse which will continue a bit at open then resume upwards as the news had bullish implications on the market. Oh my god! Not five minutes after I established my position it shot up 10...to 15..then 20 points within a very short period of time. I resisted going flat for some time but at last I did and it hurt! This was a lesson learned. I will not ever take stupid trades like this again. I will stop staking positions during after-hours sessions unless there is a very good reason to do so. I will only establish a position after confirmation of a trend. I will always trade with the trend . Yes, this is my greatest acheivement in my education: Learning that to trade successfully one needs to flow with the trend not to fight the trend with silly notions of an overextension/ mean-reversion/etc.

I will not expect your response to my thread as I intend this thread to be a journal for myself. It is much better than keeping one on my hardrive which I can't get access to unless I am at home. But if you are so compelled to , ask a question and I may be able to answer if I can. My own experiences and education have quirks and oddball turns I don't think I can be of much help to anyone in terms of trading. I can only help myself at this point.

Friday, 26 december 2014 net $69 on 3 rt /NQ.
Low volume day. Really low volume but the market just ketp rising. I went against the very things I promised I wouldn't do and kept trying to time a pull back. I expected it to be a channel bound market, hoped to time a pull back at some point. All 3 trades were net + with the third trade going against me for some time that when it went green I left 4x more gains untouched .

Not too dissapointed with the day. It was a confidence booster at least. I got some screen time in watching the charts. I know what a low volume day looks like now.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

May the farce be with you." --Spaceballs [1987] movie

 

[cashmagnet]

29 dec 2014

I am going to start predicting the index futures path on the next day and keep score of hits and misses . Three last trading days of 2014 , the bulls are expected to close the year on a high note and should push hard at the beginning of each day and slack off toward the end of the day to make triangle figure chart.

Today pre-market has a bearish tone with the /es hiting a -5 from last td settlement. This could be as a result of grim news: airliner crashing in indonesia, Greece's contentious elections, and news of ebola resurgin in parts of africa.

I expect the bulls to force their hand at the open if it remains bearish and cause a big short covering (if all the shorts don't cover pre market).

I will trade the intraday trend, going with the flow.

 

[cashmagnet]

end of day 29 december 2014

Really small channel bound day. Opened up to make a high and meandered down to the close. Caught 6.75 points mostly fading resistance points. I hesitated going long.
Great day. If I could average this much every day I will be happy. There was no really strong trend formation. These low volume days during holidays are best taken advantage of premarket, though it's risky. I am staking a position on not a lot of information except the larger time frame as reference.

What I am understanding clearly is that I must exercise great focus and patience in order to trade well. Always have a good idea which direction holds the dangers and stay clear of its path.

 

[cashmagnet]

premarket 30 december 2014

Market profile of the /nq looking at a 3 day period. Strong value built around the 4307 - 4316 channel but hasn't established a stable high formation. The prevailing bullish trend favors a push through this price range. If the market drops below it's likely to gravitate toward 4294 - 4285 area where the most contracts traded to form support in the last 5 day period.

Market's going negative premarket. The expectation at open is bullish.

 

[cashmagnet]

Dec 30 was bearish. No apparent news driving to pull back. Appears to be a simple structural distribution from an overextension. Who knows. Could be the professionals reorganizing their portofolios at the end of the year.

I find that my opinion is so stubborn I am unable to adapt to a developing tone in the charts especially when it is against me. I miss out on the first movement , keep misjudging the reversal and at each point my fear of stepping in with the trend grows as I suspect an overextension already plotted in and at the end of the day I have really missed out on a lot. I need to confidently act on what the market dictates should be done.

 

[cashmagnet]

Happy New Year! :clap:

2015 is the year to define my life as a trader. I am going to start fresh January 2, 2015 and grind it out to december 31 2015. Each trading day I am going to claw something out of the market even if it is break-even at the end of the day.
I will start viewing my trading as a compounding task on my base fund. Just the other day I scoffed at a measly $45 net after a hard day of chasing the twist and turns of the bid. It occured to me that this kind of performance is just as powerful as an occasional $450 net. A $45 net per trading day gets to $900/month. Year after year, it will grow. So to 2015, financial independence!

31 december 2015 was a hell of a day. A perfect triangle formation on a bullish open to form a peak and a downslope to the end of the day. What a slide! Sadly, I missed the opportunity on the slope and had to turn off right about the first 15min bearish bar. I had a sense that the bull was to continue after a brief pause and almost, almost went long. I had just the smidgen of an urge to stake a position and let it ride out of sight until I can get to the computer again... It was a good day for me as I had my better judgement in full account so I did not do it. It would have been an account busting move.

2015 here I come!

 

[cashmagnet]

Day #1 2015

What a day! Got on premarket and bungled a loss going into the open. I know why this happened. Outright stupidity. Outright stupidity. There are times where my form just disolves in front of the computer after hours. I must either not trade at all after hours or not distract myself when I trade after hours.

Market opened bullish and tanked. I almost staked a long position again. I have to figure out a systematic signal for just these types days where it's a strong push up at the bell and suddenly dives. So I don't get caught under the bus. I kind of got disturbed by the premarket loss and just watched from the sidelines. Looking back it seems I was almost strickenwith paralysis. The bars were elongated and dripped down like a water fall and I had no will to step in. I am stubborn I guess. Once I made up my mind to keep out of the market, I stuck to it. Good thing I guess, I could have easily tried catching the reversal. :whistling

Tomorrow's another day.
Thoughts on trading well: Keep focused and concetrated on the task (no distractions). Respect your trading desk/computer/workspace as an area of work not play. Lastly, Let winners run and cut losses quickly.

 

[timsk]

. . . Thoughts on trading well: Keep focused and concetrated on the task (no distractions). Respect your trading desk/computer/workspace as an area of work not play. Lastly, Let winners run and cut losses quickly.

Hi cashmagnet,
Good luck with you journal and your trading goals for 2015.

Your comments I've quoted sound a bit like aspirations to me, rather than clear objectives which have been clearly defined so that you know how to achieve them. Please note that this is intended as constructive observation and not as harsh criticism! I mention it as many traders - me included - have written such things in their journals which sound good, but often don't get translated into actions that help boost profits and minimise losses. So, take your last point: "let winners run and cut losses quickly". This is a common and worthwhile goal for many traders, but have you got a clear plan that you can action that will help you to achieve it?

Happy New Year.
Tim.

 

[cashmagnet]

Hi cashmagnet,
Good luck with you journal and your trading goals for 2015.

..."let winners run and cut losses quickly". This is a common and worthwhile goal for many traders, but have you got a clear plan that you can action that will help you to achieve it?

Happy New Year.
Tim.

Good point.
I have much to work on regarding just this point. I have made trades where I look back on and this occurs to me but now realize it is only in hindsight it seems to make sense . But how would I have known to let the trade ride? I am often chasing the market at s/r and when there's a fill I haven't much else to go on but the most immediate s/r points. I, in fact, lose perspective and only zone in on the gain and will always close on a hunch with not a lot of thought going into the developing chart and where it might go.

The only thing I can think of is to try and place trades in 'deeper' areas of the chart which will allow me larger s/r points to work with and shoot for those. This would mean more waiting for better opportunities rather than jumping on the first pattern that seems to develop. This could be a problem for me because my capital can't take a lot of volatility---if the chart goes a little against me it just makes me nervous. On days such as the last trading day where the momentum seems to spike one direction is also a day in which I will let the trade stay put without worrying about every little whipsaw of the chart ---but I find this kind of risky and have no stomach for it. I just feel it can reverse just as fast.

 

[cashmagnet]

Powering down the trading desk for a while

Today all went to hell. I suddenly had unexpected expenses materialize out of my wife's ass. No more trading for me.

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Today all went to hell. I suddenly had unexpected expenses materialize out of my wife's ass. No more trading for me.

Too bad. that's life. some people have good luck, some people have bad luck. i too have had roadblocks...prior to seeing the light

 

[Splitlink]

Today all went to hell. I suddenly had unexpected expenses materialize out of my wife's ass. No more trading for me.

You mean no more trading like....never? Or, no more trading today?