VielGeld
Experienced member
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I, as many others, thought the Efficient Market Theory was a load of hogwash. It still is in many ways, but I'm noticing that the "pro-" camp has been gaining in recent years.
For example, a lot of blogs/news items/etc. by acknowledged traders have mentioned that it's become increasingly difficult to make money in the market. Program trading is at an all-time high, especially with the increase in High-Frenquency Trading and sophistication of stat arb funds. So making money on news items, sentiment-based indicators, etc. is less intuitive than it was in, say, the '80's or 90's when retail traders still had a strong influence in making the market trend with "flow".
We're not to the point where its all straight up and down moves in a random walk as the theory would suggest, but there's evidence we're getting there. By now, many know all the common tricks of the trade and people are getting in on the TA bandwagon. Your edge is getting more difficult to define and/or find and nurture.
Death of the retail trader once the robots come to life? More seriously, what do you guys say? Has it become harder to make money than it used to be or is it simply a skewed perception? It's open to discussion!
For example, a lot of blogs/news items/etc. by acknowledged traders have mentioned that it's become increasingly difficult to make money in the market. Program trading is at an all-time high, especially with the increase in High-Frenquency Trading and sophistication of stat arb funds. So making money on news items, sentiment-based indicators, etc. is less intuitive than it was in, say, the '80's or 90's when retail traders still had a strong influence in making the market trend with "flow".
We're not to the point where its all straight up and down moves in a random walk as the theory would suggest, but there's evidence we're getting there. By now, many know all the common tricks of the trade and people are getting in on the TA bandwagon. Your edge is getting more difficult to define and/or find and nurture.
Death of the retail trader once the robots come to life? More seriously, what do you guys say? Has it become harder to make money than it used to be or is it simply a skewed perception? It's open to discussion!
