Market Manipulation and analysis

[Vicorka]

Just run into an interesting topic at
tradingstockmarkets.com
(check the "Interesting" section, right after the chart)

The question is:

Can we assume that the market is manipulated by "big money" and that this "Big Money" always win in a long run?

if we assume the above, can we read the "big money" actions from price and volume and try to guess what would the one who manipulate the market would do?

 

[Solas0077]

I do not understand this logic. If you have more money than some other guy and you buy 10 houses and you cause price in the area to rise are you manipulating the market?

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

I do not understand this logic. If you have more money than some other guy and you buy 10 houses and you cause price in the area to rise are you manipulating the market?

Only if:

People actually want/need to buy in your area.

They have the financial facility to do so.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

The question is:

Can we assume that the market is manipulated by "big money" and that this "Big Money" always win in a long run?

if we assume the above, can we read the "big money" actions from price and volume and try to guess what would the one who manipulate the market would do?

Are you genuinely asking, or do you already have a view on this?

 

[WR1]

possibly not the same with houses - unless you buy up nearly all the houses in the same area
maybe like buying up all the nice houses in west london

but in regards the markets, the FED and those that own the FED move the markets
(and don't forget the FED is privately owned)

one interlinked foundation owns all market moving institutions - so its not rocket science
JPM and Goldmans Sachs and most other large institutions are all owned by the same family
and if they don't own them - they either don't want them - or will at some point acquire them

just follow the money trail
and unfortunately there's no such such thing as free and fair

if you had over 100 trillion in the bank - what would you do with it ??

 

[Solas0077]

Based on this thinking the FED should not do anything because it affects bonds, stocks, fx.

 

[Vicorka]

Are you genuinely asking, or do you already have a view on this?

I think we all hate to assume that somebody manipulates us, it is against our feeling of freedom. But in reality, I think the markets are manipulates.

i completely agree with WR1, if you have a trillion in your pocket you may set the number of investment institutions that would follow your lead.

 

[numbertea]

On a 5 minute chart I can spot market price manipulation with contrarian cumulative bid/ask signals. For instance, on ES, if the price goes up 2 points, with high sell pressure and decent volume, after being flat and then hauls on down for rest of day, I consider that a 2 point manipulated fake out. Without Level 2 I would get crushed. There are many such manipulations and that is why it takes a long time to become profitable. If the market was not complex, everyone would trade.

 

[Vicorka]

I do not understand this logic. If you have more money than some other guy and you buy 10 houses and you cause price in the area to rise are you manipulating the market?

if you buy it not at once by on a schedule, it will cause the prices on houses to rise in your area on prolonged period of time.

When people and investors see that prices on houses in your area on a steady rise, they will be willing to come into your area and invest in to it because they see the stability and possibility of profit (greed moves price up). It will create additional demand and now, when you are not buying houses any more in your area, new investors are moving the price up.

Then you simply wait until the stream of new investments into your area starts to weaken. Then you sell all your houses below the market price, yet still at profit. It will push the price a little bit down, yet it could create the panic and investors start to sell houses by trying to save their investments which would create even stronger panic.

Then you simply wait when price drops down enough to start your game again...

P.S. Under houses we understand stocks

 

[Vicorka]

just adding to the previous post.

To pump it stronger, you will buy a few reporters and you will buy a few advertisements.

Do you remember as gold and silver ETFs were heavily advertised just a year ago??? Who do you think was paying for that??? and why do you think they were paying for that??? and why do you think they are silent now???

My answer is that those who manipulates spent some small (relatively to their budget) money to pump it in order to dump at high price to those who was not smart enough. Now they are simply waiting or a good price to buy.

My point is that when you accept that the market is manipulated it changes completely how you look on technical analysis.

 

[numbertea]

I have nothing substantial to back it up but I do believe that people or groups with financial means have been controlling the gold market to bring the price steadily down while driving stock prices steadily up. At some point the gold market will skyrocket and stocks will tumble. Always keep an eye on the long term outlook so you stay on the right side of it.

I tried fundamental investing for a while and got hammered by worldcom. Technical analysis is the only way to truly invest in my opinion. My investment is in myself and my ability to spot patterns that repeat on the charts.

Cheers

 

[Vicorka]

Bernanke announcement - market up. I bet, tomorrow it will slide back when many realize that they made their decision too fast...

 

[Babyblush]

Observed this happening most of the time in major currency pairs such as EUR/USD because of huge expectation from the traders.