Likely market reactions to war on Korean Peninsula?

[arabianights]

I'm getting a bit pissed off with all this kerfuffle as it was my intention to visit North Korea in August and it's getting very close to me having to commit to/abandon it, but I thought it would be interesting if we discussed the likely market reactions to a war there if Kimmy boy gets a bit bored and goes after Seoul.

The most interesting, in my opinion, is what happens to the yuan? My personal prediction is a massive sell off as China will have to get the most stuck in to those other slitty eyed guys* to the south, up to and including nukes probably.

But later on, this is massively yuan bullish. After having used nukes in anger, China becomes the unmistakeable world super power. This is so clear to me that if this does happen I will dump most of my investable assets in the Chinese stockmarket over the next few months after it happened.

Anyone any other interesting market effects to look for? Stock markets dumping and govvies rallying don't count...


*I can say this cause shadowninja has slitty eyes and isn't offended

 

[TheBramble]

Any reasons to suppose it wont be the same game plan and alliances as it was 60 years ago?

If they (the respective governments) play it smart they can drag this one out for some time. Nothing like a war to take folks minds off things at home – like budget deficit, TRP, MPs expenses etc. Look at Maggie and the Belgrano – sheer genius!

This is just the stimulus the West is looking for and I can see significant strengthening to Dollar, Euro and GBP and weakening of Yuan in the short term, which is also fantastic for the Chinese as it gives them time to quietly unload their USD holdings at top rates.

If I were a deeply serious cynic, I’d even wonder if China was not the prime mover behind this little drama. Don’t forget, NK only pulled out of the 1953 armistice with the South TODAY.

 

[Trader333]

it was my intention to visit North Korea in August and it's getting very close to me having to commit to/abandon it

Depending on how things progress you may get chance to visit as part of an invading army following a a call up if war breaks out


Paul

 

[arabianights]

Now that's an interesting idea - I'll sleep on it

 

[bypath3]

Well Fox are clearly gagging for another war, this afternoon they had a NEWS ALERT!!!!! - NORTH KOREA TRASH 50 YEAR ARMISTICE, when every other station had baby P and the football.

So Fox gets excited and starts plugging everything patriotic and US; by now everyone's watching Fox anyway because they haven't got a clue what's going on and Bloomberg has the same **** day in day out, including that allah allah all-yah song on every 10 mins, just before that patronising cold feet ****** comes on to remind me how stupid I am. Anyway, this just further propagates this artificial rally which'll eventually end in another sharp decline taking the market below what it actually should be right now, then I can get out of my short oil position I got into today and buy that hip my gran wants

 

[MrGecko]

On the other hand, if those slitty eyed buggers stop flexing their muscles and get down to the dirty, trade within the region wil dry up, period.

That could be a good cue to start front running real money moving out of the east and ploughing it all into Brazil, India + Mexico looking for the "best of the rest" EM / risk on positions...

 

[Technically Fundamental]

On the other hand, if those slitty eyed buggers stop flexing their muscles and get down to the dirty, trade within the region wil dry up, period.

That could be a good cue to start front running real money moving out of the east and ploughing it all into Brazil, India + Mexico looking for the "best of the rest" EM / risk on positions...

Isn't Mexico's wealth linked to china after their bail out deal?

 

[Black Swan]

Any reasons to suppose it wont be the same game plan and alliances as it was 60 years ago?

If they (the respective governments) play it smart they can drag this one out for some time. Nothing like a war to take folks minds off things at home – like budget deficit, TRP, MPs expenses etc. Look at Maggie and the Belgrano – sheer genius!

This is just the stimulus the West is looking for and I can see significant strengthening to Dollar, Euro and GBP and weakening of Yuan in the short term, which is also fantastic for the Chinese as it gives them time to quietly unload their USD holdings at top rates.

If I were a deeply serious cynic, I’d even wonder if China was not the prime mover behind this little drama. Don’t forget, NK only pulled out of the 1953 armistice with the South TODAY.

Top posting, summed up in a few paragraphs, which would take the broadsheets three pages of musings, hat doffed.

 

[TheBramble]

Very kind of you to say so Swannie.

It also occurred to me that our new Pres wouldn’t be too unhappy with this situation either. Not that he necessarily got his coverts to engineer it (conspiracy theorists – green light), but the boy has aspirations and good for him. A little bit of glory goes along, long way in the history books and he’s already in there for obvious reasons so nothing like building on a good start.

The only ‘great’ leaders any country ever has are those that have led it through a war.

Think of all the ‘great’ leaders of any country in recent (and even less recent) history- it’s odds on they were leading the country during a war. Regardless of their other skills, benefits, failures: they’re more often than not thought of as ‘great’ leaders. There will have been leaders of equal or superior skills who may well have brought greater overall benefits to those countries during their time in power, but unless they were in charge during a war, they are likely to have been forgotten far more quickly than their glorious counterparts.

Yeah, if I was Mr. O, I don’t reckon I’d mind this development one little bit (privately) and I’d possibly even allow those who handle these things for me without my knowledge to go ahead and do their thing. It’ll be a relatively cheap war and a useful war and geographically distant enough to be supported by those at home without any immediacy of civilian involvement or conflict. The indirect consequence of the shift of public attention away from domestic issues and the pump this will give to military R&D (and therefore general manufacturing etc.) is not to be overlooked. Plus, in times of international conflict, there are far fewer qualms about dealing with those that are thought to pose a potential risk on home shores…

Just gets better and better.

 

[theSheik]

Herro !

he's just ronery


all together now...

I'm So Ronery
I'm so ronery
So ronery
So ronery and sadry arone

There's no one
Just me onry
Sitting on my rittle throne
I work very hard and make up great prans
But nobody ristens, no one understands
Seems that no one takes me serirousry

And so I'm ronery
A little ronery
Poor rittre me

There's nobody
I can rerate to
Feer rike a bird in a cage
It's kinda sihry
But not rearry
Because it's fihring my body with rage

I work rearry hard to stay nice and fit
But none of the women seem to give a ****
When I rure the world maybe they'rr notice me
But untir then I'rr just be ronery
Rittre ronery, poor rittre me
I'm so ronery
I'm so ronery

 

[N Rothschild]

can america afford a war right now and create an even more huge deficit?

 

[Technically Fundamental]

can america afford a war right now and create an even more huge deficit?

They have no chance of getting out of debt so why not try kill as many birds as possible lol

 

[TheBramble]

can america afford a war right now and create an even more huge deficit?

The numbers have become so ridiculously large that it now makes no difference and in fact, is probably the only real opportunity they have to wipe the slate clean.